According to the latest report on inflation and price trends by the Iranian regime’s Statistical Center, the consumer price index (CPI) for households reached 217.0 in December 2023, representing a 2.9% increase compared to the previous month and a 44.4% increase compared to the same period last year.
Based on this report, the year-on-year inflation rate for households in December exceeded 40%, meaning that on average, families have spent 40.2% more than in December of the previous year on purchasing an “identical basket of goods and services.”
Consequently, the month-over-month inflation rate in December 2021 also increased by one percentage point compared to the previous month.
In a report published on Thursday, December 28, the state-run Etemad daily wrote about the examination of the inflationary situation in Iran and the new report by the Statistical Center, stating, “This report shows that after five months of implementing the strictest recessionary policies in the monetary sector, known as stabilization policies, inflation has returned to over 40%, and monthly inflation has also shifted its eight-month record.”
According to Etemad, statistical evidence indicates that the monthly and point-to-point inflation increase is primarily due to the rise in the prices of food, beverages, and tobacco products. In December, monthly inflation for food exceeded 4%, surpassing the overall inflation rate. Furthermore, the average inflation rate in this sector has also surpassed 50%, with a significant portion of food inflation occurring in the two categories of protein products and fruits and vegetables.
According to the Statistical Center, in December 2023, the average monthly inflation rate for households in the country was 2.9%. For the major group of “food, beverages, and tobacco,” this figure was 4.1%, while for the major group of “non-food goods and services,” it was 2.3%.
In this report, hotels and restaurants, clothing and footwear, tobacco, entertainment and culture, education, food and beverages, and miscellaneous goods and services were all above the average point-to-point inflation rate. However, housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels decreased below the average index line in December, unlike in November.
However, the inflation trend is not uniform across income deciles and has not been the same for December. For example, the inflation rate for food in the first decile was 5.2% on a monthly scale, whereas for the tenth decile, which represents the wealthiest income group, this figure was 3.5%.
According to the definitions of responsible institutions, an inflation rate exceeding 2% per month indicates a critical increase in commodity prices.
The increase in the official inflation rate occurs under conditions where the Minister of Economy of the government claims that the government’s monetary policies, which have led to a reduction in liquidity in recent months, have brought down the inflation rate.
Under this pretext, the government has prevented an increase in the wages of workers and retirees, and in the draft budget for the persian Calendar year 1403 (March 2024-March 2025), it has only envisaged an 18% increase in the salaries of employees and retirees. In this regard, some media outlets have stated that this amount may be considered for increasing the minimum wage for workers covered by labor law.
In the current situation of Iran’s economy, the point-to-point inflation can indicate the depth of the country’s economic crisis in a more transparent way.
