Several organizations active in Iran’s power industry have warned that the country’s electricity shortage in the summer of 2024 will reach 26,000 megawatts, equivalent to over 30% of peak electricity demand during the summer. This report is by Dalga Khatinoglu, an energy expert.
Ali Nikbakht, Chairman of the Board of the Iranian Power Plants Association, has stated that the current summer electricity shortage is between 19,000 to 20,000 megawatts, warning that if no measures are taken now, the shortage will reach 26,000 megawatts next year.
Hamidreza Salehi, Chairman of the Board of the Federation of Energy Exports and Related Industries, along with Hassanali Taghizadeh, Chairman of the Power Syndicate, have recently issued similar warnings.
All three power industry experts believe that not only is it impossible to address the current electricity shortfall in the short term, but there is little hope of even maintaining the current level of imbalance.
Nikbakht also highlighted the aging and deterioration of a significant portion of Iran’s power plant capacity, stating that plants currently out of service for repairs are contributing to the imbalance. Proper planning, including ordering parts two years ago, could have prevented this situation.
He further noted that the nominal capacity of all power plants in the country is currently around 92,000 megawatts: “Of the 15,000 megawatts generated by steam power plants, over 12,000 megawatts are over 30 years old, and among gas plants, 2,700 megawatts are also over 30 years old.”
Thus, 80% of steam power plants and 11% of gas power plants in Iran are effectively outdated. Together, low-efficiency steam and gas plants account for 43% of the country’s total nominal power capacity.
The extent of the deterioration in thermal power plants, combined with the sharp decline in hydroelectric generation due to drought, is so severe that despite around 93,300 megawatts of installed nominal capacity, the actual electricity generation is only about 61,000 megawatts. In other words, 30% of Iran’s electricity production capacity is currently out of service.
The Cause of Iran’s Growing Power Shortage
Iran should have increased its electricity production by at least 7% annually over the past decade to meet the growing demand. However, the last time it achieved this was in 2010. Since then, the country’s electricity consumption has consistently grown at twice the rate of production.
As a result, Iran, which had net electricity exports of 8 terawatt-hours annually until the mid-2010s, is now facing a massive power shortage.
The problem is that Iran now faces electricity shortages not only in the summer but in all seasons.
Government Deflection
On September 5, Hassanali Taghizadeh criticized Iranian regime officials for blaming the public for excessive electricity consumption, stating that household electricity consumption per capita is not only below the global average but about half that of Europe.
Losses in Iran’s outdated transmission and distribution networks amount to 40% of household electricity consumption, a staggering figure that, at current regional electricity prices, equates to an annual loss of four to five billion dollars.
On the other hand, the majority of Iran’s power plants are steam or gas-powered with an efficiency of 29% to 33%, meaning that a significant portion of fossil fuels like gas, diesel, and mazut is lost during the process of electricity generation.
Over the past decade, Iran has been unable to implement plans to convert its steam and gas power plants to combined-cycle systems with 45% efficiency. Currently, combined-cycle plants account for 39% of the country’s nominal power generation capacity.
Low-efficiency steam and gas power plants collectively make up 43% of the country’s electricity generation capacity.
Nuclear power and renewable energy sources each account for 1% of Iran’s total electricity generation capacity.
The rest of the country’s nominal power generation capacity comes from hydroelectric power.
