Ten years after the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran’s regime and the P5+1 countries—which had initially raised hopes for resolving Tehran’s nuclear dispute—those hopes for economic recovery and renewed political relations with the West have been replaced by growing concern over the potential activation of the snapback mechanism.
Esmail Baqaei, spokesperson for Iran’s regime Foreign Ministry, said on Monday, July 14, during a weekly press conference, referring to European countries’ threat to activate the snapback mechanism: “The use of the snapback mechanism is a political move and aimed at confronting Iran.”
He added: “Iran still considers itself a member of the JCPOA and has scaled back its commitments in response to the gross violations of the agreement by the United States and other parties.”
Baqaei warned: “The threat of a snapback will be met with an appropriate response from Iran.”
Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s regime foreign minister, also said on July 10 in a meeting with heads of foreign missions in Tehran that in recent months—and especially lately—European countries have hinted at the possibility of using the snapback mechanism to automatically reinstate sanctions on Iran, but this would be “the biggest mistake they could make.”
What is the JCPOA nuclear deal?
Ever since the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) revealed Iran’s covert nuclear program in August 2003, many countries have been suspicious of the regime’s ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons and viewed its secrecy as part of that objective.
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On July 14, 2015, Iran’s regime signed an agreement in Vienna with the United Kingdom, Germany, France, the United States, Russia, and China—known as the JCPOA. The deal lifted United Nations, U.S., and European Union sanctions on Iran in exchange for limitations on its nuclear program.
The United Nations Security Council adopted the agreement in a resolution in July 2015.
What is the snapback mechanism or “automatic reimposition of sanctions”?
The JCPOA includes a provision known as the snapback mechanism, under which UN sanctions on Iran can be reimposed without requiring a new vote in the Security Council.
Under the terms of this mechanism, if during the ten-year implementation period of the JCPOA the five member countries cannot reach consensus on Iran’s “serious non-compliance,” any one of them can activate the mechanism within the 15-member UN Security Council.
Once triggered and the review process begins, the Security Council must vote within 30 days on whether to continue lifting sanctions on Iran.
To adopt a resolution to maintain sanctions relief, nine affirmative votes are required, and none of the five permanent members—United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, and France—can exercise a veto.
If the resolution is not adopted, all previous UN sanctions on Iran automatically return, unless the Security Council takes another course of action.
What is the likelihood of the snapback mechanism being triggered?
Despite the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA, arguing that the United States was still listed as a party to the agreement in the 2015 UN resolution.
However, all the remaining parties to the agreement—Iran, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Russia, and China—told the Security Council that they did not recognize the U.S. move.
Almost all of the then-non-permanent members of the Security Council also opposed it, and the snapback mechanism was not officially triggered at that time.
Currently, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany are seriously considering triggering the snapback mechanism.
What is happening now?
With the expiration of the UN Security Council resolution on October 18, 2025, the window of opportunity to activate the snapback mechanism will close.
Donald Trump has instructed the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations to work with allied countries to reimpose sanctions on Iran.
The United Kingdom, France, and Germany have informed the Security Council that they are prepared to pursue the activation of the snapback mechanism.
These three countries had previously warned Iran’s regime that if no new agreement was reached by June 30, they would trigger the snapback mechanism.
London’s warning to Tehran regarding the snapback mechanism
On July 7, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy warned that if Iran’s regime does not back down from its nuclear ambitions, the UK, along with France and Germany, may initiate the return of United Nations sanctions against Tehran by activating the snapback mechanism.
The reinstatement of UN sanctions would not only target Iran’s oil exports again but also subject trade and financial interactions with any country doing business with Iran to potential penalties.
What UN sanctions would be reinstated?
If the snapback mechanism is triggered, the sanctions previously imposed by six UN Security Council resolutions between 2006 and 2010 would be reinstated. These sanctions include:
• Arms embargo
- Ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing
- Ban on launching and engaging in activities related to ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, along with bans on transferring technology and providing technical assistance in this field
- Asset freezes and travel bans for a number of Iranian individuals and entities•
- Authorization for UN member states to inspect cargo shipments by Iran Air and the Iranian shipping lines to prevent the transfer of prohibited goods.
