The Iranian regime may have used force to break street protests, but it has no comparable solution for an economy trapped under runaway inflation and collapsing incomes.
The January protests in Iran began after a sharp surge in foreign exchange rates, but they quickly escalated into open chants calling for the overthrow of the Iranian regime.
Many Iranians now likely personally know people who were killed on January 8 and 9.
Arrests and enforced disappearances, the exact scale of which remains unclear, have also plunged countless families into crisis and deepened fear and insecurity.
According to individuals who have recently left Iran or managed to establish internet access via Starlink, businesses across the country have either shut down or are operating at minimal capacity, a situation resulting from currency turmoil and prolonged internet shutdowns.
On one hand, customers have disappeared, and on the other, sellers are reluctant to offer goods.
Iranian Authorities Sentence Soldier to Death for Refusing to Fire at Protesters #IranProtests #IranRevolution #FreeIran2026 #No2ShahNo2Mullahshttps://t.co/lPKXv8Ry3N
— Iran Focus (@Iran_Focus) January 20, 2026
According to shopkeepers, due to exchange rate volatility, they are not confident they can replace their inventory, turning even everyday transactions into a gamble. Many prefer not to sell anything at all. Even before the protests began, businesses were already under severe pressure.
Data published by the state-run economic website Eco Iran show that bank lending from March to November 2025 increased by 47% compared to the same period in 2024, but 82% of loans granted to the production sector were used for “working capital,” indicating that firms borrowed not for expansion, but merely to survive.
Declining purchasing power
Shortly after the protests began, the government announced a plan aimed at compensating for the decline in purchasing power following the removal of preferential exchange rates for importing essential goods.
Under this plan, low-income and middle-income individuals are to receive 10 million rials per month, an amount equivalent to about seven dollars and 50 cents, roughly equal to a single day’s wage for a construction worker.
Four months of these payments were deposited in a lump sum, and recipients were told they could spend one-quarter of the amount each month to purchase 11 essential goods, including rice, cooking oil, protein products, and dairy, at government-set prices from designated stores.
Meanwhile, the prices of most of these goods on the open market have continued to rise, and some items have become scarce.
Most participants in a poll conducted by the state-run Khabar Online news website said the subsidy is insufficient or ineffective.
One reader wrote in the website’s comments section that this assistance covers at most half of the price increase for the 11 subsidized goods, noting that rising food costs naturally drive up the price of everything from biscuits to restaurant meals, for which no compensation has been provisioned.
Many are also concerned that the government may resort to printing money to finance the plan, a move that could further intensify inflation.
Official statistics show that by November 2025, the inflation rate had exceeded 50%.
The cost of the blackout
The nationwide internet shutdown imposed on January 8 and still ongoing has crippled hundreds of thousands of small and home-based businesses.
From home-based food producers to online language and music instructors, the entire livelihoods of many people were destroyed overnight, and authorities have announced no clear timeline for restoring internet access.
These businesses depend almost entirely on online platforms for advertising and sales.
Many are small producers in cities and even villages who sell handicrafts, agricultural products, or homemade food directly to customers via Instagram.
Even before the internet shutdown, extensive filtering had forced them to pay for VPN services, adding further pressure to their already fragile operations.
