While the consequences of around 50 days of conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel have left the country’s infrastructure facing a serious crisis, and the situation—caught between a fragile ceasefire and the possibility of renewed war—has left society in uncertainty, different scenes are emerging in some major Iranian cities. At the same time as indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington began in Islamabad with Pakistan’s mediation, Iran’s regime has attempted to present an image of strength and popular support by organizing coordinated gatherings.
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State-run media outlets, including the Student News Agency, described these gatherings in a report from Mashhad as a sign of “steadfastness” and spoke of people presenting over consecutive nights and praying for frontline forces. In these narratives, participation by different segments of society—even in unfavorable weather conditions—is portrayed as a symbol of national unity.
However, field reports present a different picture. According to various sources, at a time when the country is facing one of its most severe economic crises, significant costs have been spent on organizing these gatherings. In cities such as Tehran and Mashhad, incentives such as cash payments (around 50 million rials per passenger in flag-bearing vehicles, equivalent to 33 dollars and one-third of a worker’s monthly wage), as well as distribution of fuel and food, have been reported to attract participants.
Alongside this, while many citizens face internet restrictions or disruptions, in some gathering points such as Valiasr Square and Enghelab Street in Tehran, temporary communication facilities—including high-speed internet—have been provided to participants so they can publish related content on social media.
Reports also indicate a form of administrative and educational coercion; from indirect pressure on students through disciplinary grades to pressure on employees to attend gatherings under threat of losing benefits. In some areas such as Varamin, images have also been published showing individuals with militia symbols and cold weapons, which contrasts with the public atmosphere of concern in society.
Some analysts consider these actions an attempt to create a “parallel reality”; an image of public support that is far removed from the living conditions of a large part of society. At the same time, users on the social media platform X have shared images of the distribution of essential goods such as meat and rice at gathering sites, pointing to shortages of these items in the open market.
Participation in these gatherings, which had declined in recent years, this time has even included some non-ideological segments of the population. It appears that wartime conditions, while creating a degree of solidarity, have also intensified the gap between the regime and society, as well as within social layers. In this environment, the regime, in addition to external conflict, has also sought to control domestic protests.
In this context, the National Council of Resistance of Iran had previously emphasized that external war alone will not lead to regime change and could serve as a pretext for suppressing opponents. In recent days, the regime has also executed several dissidents, including members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK).
At the analytical level, the question arises whether these street mobilizations indicate that the predictions of some opposition groups, especially those advocating change through external military pressure, are incorrect. Experience shows that relying on external attacks and expecting a general uprising under wartime conditions is accompanied by serious uncertainties.
On the other hand, the nature of slogans and the atmosphere of these gatherings show that hardline factions have not only not weakened but have found more opportunity to manifest themselves in this environment. These groups, through active presence in the streets, seek to play a more prominent role in the political and cultural field.
Overall, these gatherings can be seen as part of the regime’s effort to reproduce legitimacy and maintain an ideological presence in the public sphere; an effort that, in the context of crisis and emergency conditions, has become one of the main tools for managing society.
