Iran’s regime Majlis (parliament) Research Center reports that during the first four months of this year (March 21 to July 22), the government’s oil revenue budget faced a deficit, and the revenue target set by the government in the 2025 budget bill for oil exports is unlikely to be achieved.
In next year’s budget bill, the government has set oil and gas export revenue at 5,090 trillion tomans (approximately $7.7 billion based on the free-market rate of 660,000 rials per dollar).
The government projects daily oil exports of 1.85 million barrels for the coming year, with 1.25 million barrels valued at 5,090 trillion rials allocated to the government, 550,000 barrels valued at 6,870 trillion rials (about $10.4 billion) set aside for the armed forces and specific programs, and 50,000 barrels designated to meet commitments under Article 12.
The reason why the government’s oil export volume is more than double that of the armed forces but generates less revenue is that a portion of the government’s foreign exchange revenue from oil exports is allocated for importing essential goods at a lower rate. Meanwhile, the exchange rate for euros derived from oil sales for the armed forces is set above 500,000 rials.
The Majlis Research Center, noting an 18% shortfall in the government’s oil budget for the first four months of this year, has projected that 18% of next year’s oil budget is also unlikely to be realized.
According to this center’s estimates, the government has set next year’s oil export price at $63 per barrel, but this figure may only reach $60. “The government expects daily oil exports of 1.25 million barrels (excluding allocations for the armed forces and specific programs) for itself, but actual achievement may be only 1.1 million barrels. The government also projects 16 billion cubic meters of gas exports, though the actual figure may only reach 12 billion cubic meters,” the report by the Majlis Research Center reads.
Iran’s gas exports last year also amounted to just 12 billion cubic meters, and it is unclear why the government has projected 16 billion cubic meters for next year given the increasing gas shortfall.
The daily export target of 1.85 million barrels set by the government and armed forces contrasts with tanker-tracking company data, which shows that Iran’s oil exports this year have averaged 1.5 million barrels per day.
In the 2025 budget bill, the National Development Fund’s share of the country’s oil exports is set at 48%, with 20% allocated to the fund and 28%—valued at 5,410 trillion rials (around $8.19 billion)—to be borrowed by the government.
