Statistics from the Iranian regime’s Statistics Center indicate that Iran’s “national income per capita” in 2023 decreased by 20% compared to 2011, reaching approximately 884 million rials (around $1,263).
The report explicitly reflects the impact of sanctions on Iran’s oil sales. Since 2011, national income per capita declined but slightly improved with the implementation of the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action). However, following the reinstatement of sanctions in 2017, this indicator remained stagnant and volatile until 2023.
The report’s findings suggest that by 2023, Iran has become more of a “poor country” than ever before.
The Statistics Center’s report on per capita income, using constant prices with 2021 as the base year, allows for comparisons across different years by adjusting for inflation. This comparison shows that the net per capita income of Iranians has decreased by up to 20% over the past 13 years.
Since 2011, with increased pressure from sanctions on oil sales, per capita income dropped by 847 million rials (approximately $1,210). Following the U.S. withdrawal from the JCPOA and the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the national income per capita fluctuated, ultimately regressing to levels below those of 13 years ago by 2023.
Since per capita income is expressed relative to population size, the “increase in population” over the past years has also contributed to the decline in this indicator. According to the 2011 census, Iran’s population was approximately 75 million, but over the past 13 years, at least 10 million more people have been added without a corresponding increase in income.
While the Global Finance website reports Iran’s national income per capita as $20,000 based on an exchange rate of 42,000 rials per dollar, data from the Statistics Center based on real exchange rates tell a different story. Multiple exchange rates in Iran complicate international comparisons of “per capita income.” Using the average NIMA rate of 380,000 rials per dollar in 2023, Iran’s per capita income can be estimated at approximately $2,326. However, with the free market rate exceeding 700,000 rials per dollar, the per capita income would be even lower.
A look at per capita income in Iran’s neighboring countries shows that this indicator was higher in most of these nations in 2023. According to IMF data, Iraq’s national income per capita was about $6,000, Oman $21,000, Saudi Arabia $32,000, the UAE $51,000, Qatar $82,000, and Turkey about $10,000 in the same year. In contrast, at the start of the Statistics Center’s measurement period in 2011, the gap between Iran and these countries was much smaller, and Iran’s per capita income was nearly equal to Turkey’s.
Data on per capita income in Iran show that contrary to global and regional trends, Iran’s wealth has not increased but has actually declined.
Another report from the Statistics Center on the “household income and expenditure” index in 2023 indicates that the average annual living cost in Tehran has reached 3.3 billion rials (approximately $4,714).
Iran’s Income Decline Post-2018
Ahmad Meydari, Minister of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, recently stated that until the mid-2000s, absolute poverty in Iran ranged from 12% to 15%. This increased to about 20% following the first wave of sanctions by the mid-2010s. However, with the onset of the second wave of sanctions and severe inflation, it sharply rose, reaching 30% in 2019. Per capita income data also corroborate this claim, showing no significant growth in Iranians’ income from 2018 to 2023.
According to official reports, Iran’s oil sales in the first quarter of 2024 were the highest in six years.
However, oil sales have experienced significant fluctuations over the past 13 years. Recently released data by the international firm Vortexa indicate that Iran’s oil exports fell below 200,000 barrels per day in early 2020.
