mid ongoing gas shortages in Iran, Iranian media have reported that gas supply to 12 petrochemical complexes has been cut off.
The Secretary-General of the Iranian Petrochemical Employers Association announced that the energy crisis in Iran has led to the gas supply cut for 12 petrochemical complexes. Ahmad Mahdavi stated on January 4 that investment in the energy sector is the solution to Iran’s energy imbalance. However, investment contracts for upstream gas projects in the petrochemical sector have yet to be finalized.
Mahdavi cited the rise in household gas consumption as the main reason for the gas supply restrictions to petrochemical plants. However, he did not specify the names of the 12 affected complexes. Earlier, on January 1, Saeed Tavakoli, the CEO of Iran’s National Gas Company had announced in a meeting that gas consumption would peak in the next two days. Tavakoli warned that cold weather in northwestern and northeastern regions could cause serious problems.
Tasnim News Agency, affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), reported that out of 600 power generation units, 80 have been shut down due to gas shortages. Iran’s power plants have a total capacity of 58,000 megawatts. The shutdown of these plants has led to an 8,000-megawatt reduction in electricity production, equivalent to a 14% decrease.
On November 29, 2024, Tavakoli had emphasized that without household gas conservation, there would not be enough gas for productive industries, including petrochemical plants, cement, and steel factories. Additionally, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the regime’s parliament (Majlis), recently admitted that under the current situation, the country would soon be left without both electricity and gas.
11-Fold Increase in Gas Exports Amid Gas Shortages in Iran
Meanwhile, data from Turkey’s Energy Market Regulatory Authority shows that Iran’s gas exports to Turkey increased 11-fold in September and October 2024. This surge in exports comes at a time when domestic consumers in Iran are facing a severe gas shortage, leading to strict limitations on fuel supply to industries, petrochemical plants, and power plants.
Overall, between September 1 and October 31, Iran exported 1.38 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkey—more than 10.5 times the amount exported in the same period in 2023. Iran also exports gas to Iraq, though exact figures on these exports are unavailable. Additionally, Iran has a gas-for-electricity swap agreement with Armenia, under which it receives 3 kilowatt-hours of electricity for each cubic meter of gas supplied.
Gas Exports Continue Despite Industrial and Petrochemical Shutdowns
According to Armenia’s customs data, Iran’s gas exports to Armenia increased by 23% in the first half of 2024. During this period, over 226 million cubic meters of gas, valued at $38 million, were exported to Armenia.
Data from BP and the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) indicates that Iran exported approximately 14 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023. However, no official estimates have yet been released for Iran’s total gas exports in 2024. The administration of Masoud Pezeshkian has set a target of exporting 16 billion cubic meters of gas in its proposed budget for 2025.
This target has been set despite Iran’s severe gas shortages. In recent days, gas supply to many industries and petrochemical plants has been cut off. Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad has stated that under Iran’s Seventh Development Plan, daily gas production must reach 1.38 billion cubic meters.
During the colder months of the year, Iran’s maximum daily gas production capacity is 850 million cubic meters. However, the country still faces a daily shortfall of 300 million cubic meters. The annual average gas production stands at around 730 million cubic meters. Paknejad emphasized that achieving the development plan’s goals would require an investment of $45 billion, which should be allocated to the expansion of gas fields and related infrastructure.
