Hossein Raghfar, an economist who has held positions in reformist administrations of the Iranian regime, predicted that the exchange rate would exceed 1,000,000 rials per US dollar based on the correlation between currency value and gold coin prices. He emphasized that this situation is “fuel for regime overthrow.”
In an interview with the state-affiliated website Didban Iran, Raghfar discussed recent turmoil in Iran’s foreign exchange market. He dismissed the possibility that the government was speculating or manipulating currency exchange rates for profit, stating, “The government currently has no foreign currency reserves to inject into the market […] The government has no power.”
He added that previous currency interventions had already taken place and emphasized, “National interests have been sacrificed for the benefit of oligarchs and mafias.”
Raghfar’s remarks come just two weeks after the heads of the three branches of government approved the transfer of Iran Khodro’s management—despite widespread criticism and the explicit opposition of the Competition Council—to a conglomerate owned by two families convicted of financial crimes. Previously, the Iranian regime’s Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, had personally endorsed the transfer of Iran Khodro, the country’s largest automobile manufacturer, to the Krouz family after consulting with Hamid Keshavarz Tuchaei, a businessman accused of economic corruption.
Raghfar further warned that the continuation of these conditions would undermine the country’s political foundations. He stated, “The economic and social foundations have long been eroded, and from now on, we should expect the political foundations to suffer even greater damage than they already have.”
On February 6, former Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, in his last periodic meeting with his cabinet ministers, had issued warnings about dealing with Donald Trump and the dangers of making poor decisions.
He stated that the Iranian regime was in a critical situation and that a single mistake could destroy everything.
Raghfar, a professor of economics at Alzahra University, noted that the exchange rate could reach 1,000,000 rials per dollar or even higher. He explained, “There is evidence for this scenario. Currently, four billion dollars’ worth of gold imported from abroad is being sold at exchange rates of 1,100,000 to 1,200,000 rials per dollar.”
He emphasized, “When this gold is converted into coins, the exchange rate is calculated at approximately 1,100,000 rials per dollar.”
On February 9, the exchange rate in Iran’s free market reached a historic high of 940,000 rials per dollar.
In conclusion, Raghfar described the country’s situation as a “disaster” and stressed, “In my opinion, this is fuel for regime overthrow, and foreign elements are intensely active in this area. Their agents and operatives are strongly present in the media, academic institutions, and decision-making centers.”
Raghfar’s statements come as another major challenge facing the Pezeshkian administration is the impending increase in gasoline prices.
Since 198990, after Khamenei assumed leadership of the regime, successive governments have increased gasoline prices on average every two years across 15 different occasions until 2019. However, for over five years since November 2019, gasoline prices have remained unchanged.
Evidence and statements indicate that the government and parliament of the regime plan to at least change the gasoline rationing system by Nowruz 1404 (March 21, 2025).
On February 7, former interior minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, in a televised program, warned about this issue, stating, “Today’s situation is far more concerning than in 2019.” He emphasized, “The gasoline issue is no longer merely economic; it has become political, social, and security-related.”
In 2019, after gasoline price hikes, widespread protests erupted across Iran, resulting in the Iranian regime killing 1,500 protesters.
