Existing indicators suggest that a large portion of Iranian society is facing not an absolute shortage of goods, but a severe decline in economic access to essential food items. The removal of dairy products, meat, chicken, and many basic commodities from the consumption baskets of low-income households is a serious warning sign for the country’s food security.
The Collapse of Purchasing Power and the Shrinking Household Food Basket
Inflation and economic stagnation in Iran have now reached a stage where their effects are clearly visible in people’s consumption patterns. Labor reports indicate that per capita dairy consumption in Iran has fallen to about one-fifth of the global average.
Urban Poverty in Iran: The Collapse of the Economy of Life in Major Cities
The price of raw milk has more than tripled in a short period, and dairy products have experienced price increases exceeding 100%. The first victims of this trend are working-class families and low-income groups.
At the same time, economic stagnation has limited income opportunities. Many small and medium-sized businesses have faced reduced activity, declining sales, or closure. The result of this dual trend is clear: living costs are rising rapidly while incomes are unable to keep pace.
Is Famine Only About the Absence of Food?
In economic literature, famine does not necessarily mean empty warehouses. Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Kumar Sen demonstrated in his research that many of history’s major famines occurred under conditions where food was available in society, but a large portion of the population had lost the ability to purchase it.
This definition underscores the importance of examining inflation and economic stagnation in Iran. Markets remain active and goods continue to be supplied, but the gap between income and expenses is widening rapidly. When households are forced to reduce their consumption of dairy products, meat, fruit, and other essential items, society enters a stage of food insecurity.
Signs of this situation can be seen in rising malnutrition, declining dietary quality, and increasing public health problems. Healthcare costs resulting from malnutrition will also place additional pressure on households in the coming years.
Chronic Inflation; The Product of a Crisis-Stricken Political Economy
Statistics from recent years show that the country’s economy has entered a cycle of chronic inflation. Inflation rates above 40% and 50%, which were once considered exceptional, have now become a normal feature of the economy.
The roots of this situation cannot be attributed solely to sanctions or external factors. A centralized economic structure, widespread corruption, chronic inefficiency, policy instability, and the absence of accountable institutions have played decisive roles in creating this crisis.
The Time Bomb of Inequality and Poverty
One of the most alarming consequences of inflation and economic stagnation in Iran is the widening class divide. Lower-income groups spend the majority of their income on food and housing. Therefore, any price increase in these sectors directly reduces their standard of living.
By contrast, wealthier groups have greater ability to preserve their assets and offset the effects of inflation. The result is growing inequality and the erosion of the middle class—a class that is widely regarded as a cornerstone of social stability and economic development.
Rising emigration, declining marriage rates, deteriorating educational quality, increasing child poverty, and reduced household investment in children’s futures are only some of the consequences of this situation. A society in which a large share of the population struggles merely to meet basic needs loses its capacity for growth and sustainable development.
Iran’s Economic Future; Between Survival and Gradual Collapse
Some analysts use the concept of a survival economy to describe the current situation—a condition in which the primary goal of the ruling structure is not development and prosperity, but preventing complete economic collapse. However, such a model imposes a heavy cost on society.
If inflation and economic stagnation in Iran continue along their current trajectory, they could lead to expanding food insecurity, rising malnutrition, increasing poverty, and worsening social crises. It may not yet be possible to speak of famine in its classical sense, but many indicators suggest that the country is moving along a dangerous path that will result in more widespread food deprivation.
