Iran’s forthcoming parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections, scheduled for March 1, are shrouded in predictability and controversy, underscoring a regime grappling with internal discord and widespread public disillusionment. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) has highlighted the regime’s deep-seated crises in its latest analysis. The report dives into the unprecedented election boycott anticipated by the regime, the disqualification of key regime figures, and an overarching inability to address its multifaceted crises.
The election boycott represents a significant challenge to the regime’s legitimacy. The NCRI article points out a record-high anticipated boycott, driven by a broad societal disenchantment. Abdolvahed Mousavi Lari, a former Minister of Interior, expressed concerns that “people’s anger towards the ballot boxes may be more serious than in 2019,” a year when voter turnout plummeted to the lowest since the mullahs’ rise to power in 1979. This anticipated boycott underscores a pervasive belief among the populace that abstention is a more principled stance than participation in a flawed electoral process.
Further complicating the regime’s predicament is the major disqualification of security veterans and political figures. Notably, the exclusion of Hassan Rouhani, a two-term president and long-time member of the Assembly of Experts, along with three former intelligence ministers and other high-profile officials, signals a significant purge within the regime’s own ranks. The NCRI article underscores the severity of these disqualifications: “The most prominent person to be eliminated from the race is Hassan Rouhani.” This wave of exclusions reveals deep internal rifts and a strategy aimed at consolidating power, eliminating dissent, and ensuring the survival of the ruling clique.
Amidst these challenges, the regime’s inability to resolve its crises becomes glaringly apparent. Iran is entangled in a web of interconnected and intricate crises, with economic and social turmoil, political grievances, and regional and global isolation threatening the regime’s stability. The NCRI describes a regime that “cannot afford any missteps or criticism,” relying heavily on repression and a shrinking circle of loyal officials to maintain its grip on power. This approach, however, fails to address the underlying issues, instead exacerbating the regime’s isolation and the public’s discontent.
Attempts by regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei to leverage the elections to project strength and legitimacy is indicative of a broader strategy to navigate these crises. By engineering the electoral process to ensure a high turnout, the regime seeks to present an image of social support and stability. However, the NCRI highlights the inherent flaws in this strategy, noting that “in Iran’s ruling religious dictatorship, genuine partisanship and ideological divides that prioritize public interest are nonexistent.” This lack of genuine political competition and the suppression of dissenting voices only further alienate the populace and undermine the regime’s credibility.
The disqualifications and the anticipated election boycott are not merely symptoms of a political system in distress; they are indicative of a deeper, systemic inability to engage with the public’s demands for change. Ahmad Zeydabadi, a state-affiliated analyst, warns of a “very, very dangerous downhill slide,” highlighting the regime’s precarious position and the urgent need for a fundamental shift in approach.
The NCRI’s report reveals a regime that is facing insurmountable challenges. The unprecedented election boycott, the disqualification of key figures, and the regime’s overarching crises are interwoven elements of a system struggling to maintain its legitimacy and control. As the regime tightens its grip, it inadvertently highlights its vulnerabilities, driving the country further into turmoil.
“Despite his efforts to purge his own ranks ‘for purity’ to stave off the overthrow of his regime, Khamenei overlooks the very fact that his regime becomes weaker by the day, while the people and the Iranian Resistance become bolder and more determined,” the NCRI writes.
