How Iran’s Economy Was Destroyed by the Mullahs
The Iranian government has, through warmongering, terrorism, and institutionalized corruption, destroyed the country’s economy, leaving 80% of Iranians in poverty.
The mullahs falsely claim that sanctions are the issue, but recently economists linked to the officials and the state-run media have publically rejected this.
An Iranian economist Farshad Momeni said Friday: “Improper and ill-considered decision-making methods have faced the country with a lot of corruption and inefficiencies. It is safe to say those wrong policies that create inflation since they are anti-production and based on injustice are roots of all small and big problems of Iran’s economy.”
These policies, including the “exchange rate control plan” and “housing constructions”, have lost hundreds of billions of dollars since 1990. Momeni estimates a total of $730 billion have been lost from these two policies alone.
Meanwhile, the state-run media has been focusing on the problems that the economic collapse have caused to the working class, which is much worse than the general population.
Alireza Heidari, Vice President of the Union of Veterans of the Working Society, said Saturday: “Security has been taken away from the working class in various areas. Workers are now concerned about how they can live and earn a living under the current conditions, given the rampant inflation and declining purchasing power. Livelihoods are a major concern that has plagued the working-class community over the past few years, both those employed and retired. They have a pessimistic view of their future living conditions.”
He was talking to the ILNA news agency, which further reported that the government’s “parametric reform” plan for calculating pensions is just a way to reduce the pensions and benefits. Indeed, this is what retirees from all over the country have been protesting every week since January, calling for their pension to rise with inflation so that they can actually afford to live.
The state-run Eghtesad-e Pouya explained at the beginning of the month that the increase in the cost of housing, meat, and oil promises that the workers will have an emptier table in the coming year than ever before, especially because of those who have lost their job amid the Covid-19 outbreak that disproportionately affects low-income people.
One of the MP’s Malek Shariati attacking Rouhani’s government on May 18 said: “The creators of the current situation, especially in the country’s economy, can in no way claim to reform and solve the country’s problems.”
Referring to the registration of members of the Rouhani government for the presidential election, he added: “Most of these people do not have an acceptable record and it is strange that in their speeches they say ‘they are looking to improve the current situation and solve the problems of the country.’”
Finally he added: “Inflation crossed the 50 percent mark and broke the country’s 75-year record, indicating the weakness of the government’s economic team.” (State-run news agency Mehr, May 18, 2021)
Another MP, Behzad Rahimi attacked Rouhani because of the dire economic situation and said: “Mr. President, the people have been crushed under the wheel of your recklessness in the political, social and especially economic spheres, but you are thinking about the color of your beard. Mr. Rouhani, you did not have mercy on the unemployed and frustrated youth who came and joined to your stock market with thousands of hopes and aspirations and with your Excellency’s propaganda, and you are mocking these young people by robbing them of thousands of billions of Tomans of capital.” (ICANA, May 16, 2021)
The Iranian Resistance wrote: “The aforementioned facts show why Iranians from all walks of life chant in their protests, ‘our enemy is right here; they lie it is the US’. The regime’s destructive actions have turned the society into a powder keg, prompting state-run media to warn officials of an uprising.”
Unemployment in Iran a Problem With Political and Social Dimensions
The most important problem of the next decade in Iran is the problem of unemployment, a problem that can even have political and social dimensions, according to Iran experts.
In the summer of 2017, when the twelfth government took office, President Hassan Rouhani announced that his government’s top priority would be to solve the unemployment problem in the country and promised to create 900,000 jobs annually.
The major anti-government protests of January 2018 and November 2019 and the incident of the coronavirus pandemic changed the priorities of Iran’s government in preventing any protests and the rise of the people.
For nearly a decade, Iran’s economic growth has been close to zero, which means that according to the logic of economics, the creating of new job opportunities and eliminating previous job opportunities should be close to zero. However, the problems seem to be so great in Iran, that no one can address the unemployment crisis.
The population of Iran in 2011 was reported to be about 75 million and now, in 2021, it is estimated at about 84 million. About nine million people have been added to the population of Iran during this decade, but apparently there is no prosperity in the Iranian labor market, and this means that if four years ago the employment crisis was just a light wind and its alarm siren a little whistle, now this light wind has become a storm and its alarming siren has becoming a deafening sound.
The official unemployment rate in Iran is not accurate. The latest data of the ‘Labor Force Survey Plan’ in 2018, provides a more accurate picture of this issue. According to the Statistics Center of Iran, that year about 23.8 million people were employed throughout Iran, of which about 13 million (equivalent to 5%) were employed at least 44 hours a week.
On the other hand, of the total population of employees in 2018, about 9.7 million people (equivalent to about 40.8%) worked less than 44 hours per week, which in fact, in general, indicates ‘underemployment’. Simply put, nearly 41% of all Iranians who were employed in 2018 did not have a full-time job (in the sense of a full-time job).
However, data from the Statistics Center of Iran, last updated in April 2021, show that the unemployment rate in Iran has declined in recent years. This may seem strange at first glance, because we all know that the general state of Iran’s economy has steadily deteriorated in recent years.
However, economic logic supports this data, because by reducing the actual (or nominal) wages of workers, it becomes easier and cheaper for the employer to employ labor. Accordingly, the unemployment rate (according to the definition of the Statistics Center, the ratio of unemployed population to active population (employed and unemployed), multiplied by 100) in the winter of 2020 across the country, was equal to 9.7 percent.
Unemployment rates in Iran have been declining in recent years, but these statistics are naturally based on self-reported individuals.
This rate was equal to 10.6 percent in the winter of 2019 and 12.5 percent in the winter of 2016. Thus, in the last five years, the unemployment rate has decreased, because the wages of the employees in practice (for example, in terms of their dollar wages) have been lower than before and it has become easier for the employer to pay. For this reason, the employer prefers to hire a larger labor force.
Iran’s Inefficient Government
After World War II many countries around the world started development and growth of their economic power, but Iran has fallen behind many other countries.
International institutions such as the World Bank addressed this issue in the early 1990s and finally made it clear that ‘governance’ is a key issue in the development strategy of countries with poor performance.
They then indexed this new category in the development economics literature, which ‘includes six components: corruption control, government effectiveness, political stability, quality of laws and regulations, rule of law, the right to comment and be accountable, which is considered as a model for development and ‘good governance.’
But the Iranian government does not abide by any of these indexes. Even while government experts analyzed these indexes about Iran, they were scared about the results.
“An examination of the data and statistics of various institutions shows that Iran is not in a good position in terms of governance. This is evident in all the indicators that are built around the category of governance. Iran’s best ranking in 2018 is related to ‘government effectiveness’, in which it is ranked 131st among 209 countries.
“But in other indicators, it is among the last 50 countries among more than 200 countries. The position of the country among the countries of the region (25 countries) is not very suitable, so that in all indicators except the government effectiveness index, it is considered as one of the last 10 countries.
“In addition to the World Bank, Iran is not in a favorable position in the eyes of other international institutions that have described good governance.” (Iran’s Economic Affairs Research Institute / Ministry of Economy, May 2020)
In the above findings, the Minister of Communications, in his final days in office confirmed that ‘good governance’ in Iran is only tantamount to the ‘survival’ of the people and said: “Like it or not, every day one of the thousands of faces of the pain of poverty and deprivation parades before our eyes. The pain of ‘survival’ that can neither be ignored nor reacted to.” (State-run Khabar Online, May 11, 2021)
In the index, Iran was ranked 131st in terms of ‘government effectiveness’ which is considered good for the regime’s officials.
But what are their opinions about the inflation which is tied with the people’s livelihood baskets?
“The most important challenge we have in the country’s economy is the challenge of inflation. This chronic inflation, which has plagued us for more than four decades, reflects the inefficiencies and structural problems that exist in our economy.
“The result of all these inefficiencies in the economy will be an increase in inflation, because eventually the government will have to solve these problems indirectly, without the people realizing it, by creating money.
“That is, the banking system has covered these imbalances by creating money. But the banking system itself has suffered a greater imbalance that has used central bank resources.” (State-run daily Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
One of the members of the Expediency Council about the suffering of the country’s economy and the inefficiency of the government said: “There is no doubt that Iran’s economy is in turmoil. Management is the main challenge of the country’s economy and we have been plagued by mismanagement in all the past years.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
About the high costs and its pressure on the people, he added: “The prices have become so terrible that the sections of the society, especially the minimum wage earners, are shouting what can I do, and the increase in salaries and wages cannot meet these costs, which result in empty tables and the shame of the breadwinner of the family.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
And again, about the government’s inefficiency and irresponsibility, he added: “The fat and lazy government manages the affairs of the country. The presence of about 3.5 million government employees shows how much we rely on government desks and chairs to create jobs.
“This approach causes a lot of costs in the form of salaries and wages to be imposed on the country’s economy, in such a way that a large part of government revenue is spent on government salaries and benefits.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
In the index, Iran was ranked 131st in terms of ‘government effectiveness’ which is considered good for the regime’s officials.
But what are their opinions about the inflation which is tied with the people’s livelihood baskets?
“The most important challenge we have in the country’s economy is the challenge of inflation. This chronic inflation, which has plagued us for more than four decades, reflects the inefficiencies and structural problems that exist in our economy.
“The result of all these inefficiencies in the economy will be an increase in inflation, because eventually the government will have to solve these problems indirectly, without the people realizing it, by creating money.
“That is, the banking system has covered these imbalances by creating money. But the banking system itself has suffered a greater imbalance that has used central bank resources.” (State-run daily Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
One of the members of the Expediency Council about the suffering of the country’s economy and the inefficiency of the government said: “There is no doubt that Iran’s economy is in turmoil. Management is the main challenge of the country’s economy and we have been plagued by mismanagement in all the past years.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
About the high costs and its pressure on the people, he added: “The prices have become so terrible that the sections of the society, especially the minimum wage earners, are shouting what can I do, and the increase in salaries and wages cannot meet these costs, which result in empty tables and the shame of the breadwinner of the family.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021)
And again, about the government’s inefficiency and irresponsibility, he added: “The fat and lazy government manages the affairs of the country. The presence of about 3.5 million government employees shows how much we rely on government desks and chairs to create jobs.
“This approach causes a lot of costs in the form of salaries and wages to be imposed on the country’s economy, in such a way that a large part of government revenue is spent on government salaries and benefits.” (Tejarat, May 12, 2021) Iran’s State Media: Which JCPOA Is To Be Revived in the Vienna Talks?
In Iran, the two political currents, if we could call them so, are fighting with each other about the fate of Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with global powers, known formally by the acronym JCPOA.
The so-called reformist faction, which is now represented by the regime’s president Hassan Rouhani, is struggling to revive the JCPOA. And its rival faction the so-called principlists, which is represented by the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is trying to sabotage the reformists’ efforts in the negotiations with the world powers.
Despite all these shows, the regime’s main wish which is under the authority of the supreme leader is to revive the JCPOA, Iran analysts say. The rest of the story seems to be more like a political theatre and is used by Khamenei’s loyalist to revive the spirits of the Basijis, the regime’s forces, and its mercenaries in the region.
The Mehr news agency in an article attacking the government and its efforts to revive the JCPOA on May 14 wrote:
“As Iran’s presidential election approaches, some are seeking an agreement with the West to revive the JCPOA. But there are serious questions that need to be answered. Because the evidence shows that the red lines announced by the leadership in these negotiations have been violated again, and it seems that another pure damage is on the way.”
The article confessing about the failure of the JCPOA and its damages to the regime wrote: “Today, it is clear to any fair observer that the JCPOA was nothing but a loss to Iran. But why did the JCPOA fail to meet expectations as claimed by the JCPOA? The main problems of the JCPOA can be summarized in the following cases:
- Lack of necessary guarantees to fulfill the obligations of the Western parties
- Lack of proper and fair mechanism for resolving disputes
- Suspension of sanctions instead of lifting them
- Maintaining the structure of sanctions
Iran’s Nurses Struggling To Cope With COVID-19 and Make a Living Forced To Migrate
The phenomenon of migration of Iranian nurses to other countries already existed, but with the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, the gap between the employment status and welfare of nurses in Iran and abroad deepened and the rate of migration of nurses abroad increased.
Since the start of the coronavirus crisis last year, nurses have shown that they are at the forefront of public health in the fight against this great pandemic – a fight which would not have been possible without the presence of nurses.
During this period, nurses showed many sacrifices in different countries of the world, including Iran, and as health heroes, they were able to establish their position in defending the health of society and show their important role in combating diseases; however, unfortunately, some of them lost their lives in this way.
With the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic, various countries, including in the West and the Middle East, were in dire need of nurses and provided many facilities for nurses.
This was one of the main reasons of the migration of Iran’s nurses to other countries. There is a huge difference of quality in facilities and advantages between Iran with those countries.
Although there are no exact statistics on this, it is said that about a thousand nurses emigrate from Iran every year with the motivation of finding better job opportunities and more welfare.
Nurses have been educated for many years and have gained valuable experience and losing them causes serious damage to the health system, which is very difficult to compensate. Iran trains about 10,000 nurses annually, and due to the retirement of many nurses and the growing need of the health system for nurses, the crisis of shortage of nurses is intensifying day by day, and this shortage has a great impact on the quality of nursing services.
Lack of nursing staff on the one hand and the occupation of most hospital beds by the COVID-19 patients on the other hand has caused physical and mental exhaustion of nurses.
Iran’s officials of the Program and Budget Organization and the President made several promises to pay special attention to nurses and solve their problems, and even the regime’s Supreme Leader emphasized on addressing the accumulated demands of nurses, but in practice there was no concrete action in this regard.
The Coronavirus bonus which was promised to the nurses alongside their regular wages was just for the government’s propaganda and was very little and it can even be said that the amounts paid were an insult to the nurses. Reducing working hours was another promise that was made, but not kept, to many of the nurses who worked in hospitals dealing with Covid patients, which caused great dissatisfaction.
A recruitment test was to be held and a significant number of nurses were to be recruited, but the fate of this recruitment test is still unknown and has stopped in Iran’s corrupted bureaucracy cycle.
The country’s medical universities employ many 89-day contract nurses, and it was recently said that they are employed on a one-year basis, but the government has a free hand to expel them anytime it wants.
And so far, the law on nursing tariffs, which was promised many times, is still being passed between the parliament and the government and has not been implemented.
More than 50,000 nurses have become infected with the coronavirus. So, the priority should vaccinate nurses, i.e., those who are at the forefront of providing health services to patients.
While it has been a long time since vaccination began, the government’s negligence and mismanagement in this area has meant that many nurses have not yet received the coronavirus vaccine.
Iran’s Corruption Crisis
There is no doubt that Iran suffers greatly from institutionalized financial corruption, as evidenced by the fact that Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index ranks Iran
149 out of 180 countries, but still officials can shock Iranians and the world at large with the related information.
Former minister Mohammad Gharazi said last weekend that Tehran has had “$4 trillion in revenue” since 1979, but that 2-3 trillion was “destroyed by rent-seeking activities”. Just days before that, attorney general Ali Alghazi Mehr advised that a criminal case was being filed against the former president of the Central Bank Valiollah Seif for his role in a major embezzlement case involving $30.2 billion and 60 tons of gold.
Alghazi Mehr said: “Between 2016 and 2018, not only the country’s currency laws were breached, but also the legal responsibilities pertaining to the intervention of the Money and Credit Council on issues related to currency and the sale of gold coins to prevent the formation of brokerage markets were not respected.”
Last month, judiciary spokesperson Gholamhossein Esmaili said that over 200 judiciary staff members were arrested on corruption charges, with the former executive deputy of the judiciary chief Akbar Tabari held on charges relating to billions of dollars of embezzled money.
Regarding the two others charged alongside him, Tabari said during his trial: “I and [Hassan] Najafi and [Farhad] Mashayekh are like three brothers. If I need 8 trillion rials, these brothers will provide. If I want the Lavasan factory, they will register it under my name! This is friendship. If you don’t have these kinds of friends, you have nothing to say to me. If they want the same from me, I will do it for them.”
Here are some other known corruption cases in Iran that prove just how widespread the issue is:
- 180 trillion rials: Babak Zanjani, state-affiliated businessman
- 80 trillion rials: Bonyad-e Shahid foundation
- 5 trillion rials: Saeid Mortazavi, former attorney general
- 30 trillion rials: former labour ministry
- 23 trillion rials: Mohsen Rafighdoost, former Revolutionary Guards commander
Iran’s Presidential Election, a Step Beyond Electoral Engineering
One of the most important issues now in Iran’s political field is the upcoming presidential election. Iran experts say that more than ever, Iran’s clerical rulers fear the results and consequences of the elections.
The reason is that the regime in the last two to three years has experienced very hard blows through the people’s protests. One of its consequences, as officials have confessed, is the non-participation of the people in the elections and the people’s distrust of the regime which can lead to its overthrow.
Now the people have found the courage which is increasing day by day to oppose the regime in public and call this election a sham-election which is not free. The situation for the regime is so murky that even many of its officials stand opposed to it too.
So, to create a balance Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei was forced to came to the stage and announce that, “Do not always say that elections should be free; We had 34 elections since the beginning of the revolution, which one was not free?”
In reality, however, the post of President is in conflict with the post of the Supreme Leader, and to neutralize this position and having the upper hand like in the past 40 years, Khamenei once again commissioned the super reactionary Guardian Council, to take control over the presidential candidates, and remove those from the list who are not synchronized with the regime’s principles, which the most important is to be loyal to the supreme leader.
On May 8, 2021 the Guardian Council announced:
“If the Guardian Council finds that even after the qualification something happened before the election, which is the reason for the disqualification, it is the Guardian Council’s legal right to reconsider that person, so it does not matter, and it is possible that someone in the previous period after the qualification, and in the debate and non-debate, as well as during the propaganda, did things that are now in this period, when his case is reviewed, see those things, were things that are unqualified, whether related to the past or to this period, so it is the Guardian Council’s oversight right to reconsider the competence of that person.” (Entekhab, May 8, 2021)
The easy translation of these sentence is that the blade of the Guardian Council is all the time on the neck of the candidates.
One of the state-run outlets mocked this situation and wrote: “With this explanation, the election debates will become a TV show, because any talk may lead to disqualification.” (Shargh, May 8, 2021)
Then a government lawyer attacked the unlimited and unrestrained power of this Council and said:
“When the Guardian Council such a free hand, and has taken over the election, and it has become the law at all, the best thing to do to speed up the election and save the nation all the time and money, at the election day, do not put any ballot box anywhere except at the Guardian Council’s place.
“All twelve respectable men of the Guardian Council cast their ballots in the same ballot box. The person who gets the most votes in that ballot box becomes the president. In less than 15 minutes, everything starts and ends without wasting any time or money, and easily it become what you want it to be. And the people will not get bother either.” (Setareh-e-Sobh, May 8, 2021)
Although this may sound ironic, it is the truth. For more than four decades, this mechanism in Iran has determined the fate of the election. Because in Iran, elections in the common and well-known sense like in democratic systems have never been valid. The ‘election’ is a cover for the engineering of the power structure controlled by the supreme leader.
But the final and real thought of the regime is accumulated in these sentences expressed by cleric Mohammad-Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi who died earlier this year:
“If there has been talk of elections in the Islamic Republic so far, it is because the Supreme Leader has considered it useful to hold elections now and to get the opinion of the people. The supreme leader has the right and can choose any other type of government whenever he wants and deems expedient, in which he may not refer to the people’s vote at all. The legitimacy of the government is not only subject to the vote and consent of the nation, but also the vote of the nation has no effect on its credibility.” (Partoo weekly, December 28, 2005)
Iran: Supreme Leader’s Initiatives for Presidential Election
Today, the Islamic Republic system in Iran faces critical and backbreaking challenges that it has never before experienced. The government wrestles with unprecedented economic dilemmas, and the coronavirus outbreak claims more lives each day in addition to its financial, social, and political consequences.
These crises along with numerous catastrophes in almost all fields have severely intensified the gap between the state and society while officials and state-run media frequently warn about the upcoming protests. In such circumstances, the ayatollahs intend to hold another Presidential election on June 18.
“The people’s frustration has deeper roots in this status quo. However, political movements analyze and make decisions regardless of these roots, and this distance is getting deeper between politicians and people. This distance would be deeper with political gestures,” wrote the state-run Ebtekar daily on April 6.
In other words, the people have grasped that current politicians cannot change their living conditions and resolve their complicated difficulties. Instead, they are adding insult to society’s injuries and thereby pushing citizens to think about solutions beyond the Islamic Republic system.
The ayatollahs’ 42-year reign has shown that they could not and cannot afford to bring prosperity and welfare to Iran’s 83-million population. In this regard, there is an ongoing struggle between citizens, particularly the young generation, and rulers for fundamental rights like freedom of speech, equality, justice, and a fair and democratic election.
In Iran, the Supreme Leader has the final word. In 2009, former President Mohammad Khatami described the President in Iran as a waiter reminding the current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s efforts to expand the president’s power when Khamenei himself was the president.
Nonetheless, to prevent potential protests, Khamenei intend to remove ‘reformists,’ ‘moderates,’ or anything else they call themselves from power. During their protests in January 2018, November 2019, and January 2020, citizens openly chanted the slogan, “Reformists, Principalists, the game is over” showing their disappointment over the current political divisions.
“The election must symbolize the national unity, not duality, division, and bipolarity,” Khamenei said in his recent remarks on March 21 revealing his intention to nip any competition in the bud. Following his remarks, Khamenei’s faction launched a comprehensive campaign to stifle the rivals, and in some cases, the Supreme Leader personally ran this campaign.
Majlis Paves the Path for Khamenei’s Desired Figure
On December 20, 2020, the official IRNA news agency reported, “Members of the Parliament [Majlis] rejected a proposal for banning military individuals from running for the [Presidential] election.” “The constitution has allowed all armed forces members to register for the Presidential election without resignation,” IRNA quoted the Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf as saying. “The object of interference in political issues and candidacy for the election are two different topics.” Notably, before the death of Qassem Soleimani, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC-QF) chief, in a US drone attack in Iraq, Khamenei had dreamed to appoint him as a the most loyal president to himself, Iran analysts say. However, the U.S. January 3, 2020, drone strike changed the puzzle completely forcing Khamenei to think about other options. Observers recently speak about Hossein Dehghan, the Supreme Leader’s military advisor, Ghalibaf, Saeed Jalili, the former Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) secretary, and Saeed Mohammad, the former IRGC’s Khatam al-Anbiya Construction Headquarters chief, Rostam Ghasemi, another former Khatam al-Anbiya chief, and Mohsen Rezaei, the former IRGC commander-in-chief as potential future presidents. All these military commanders, of course, had taken out their fatigues long while ago fearing a public backlash. However, the Khamenei-controlled Majlis has left the gate open for more military individuals, particularly IRGC commanders, to participate in the June 18 Presidential election.Khamenei Personally Ousts Potential Rivals
Hassan Khomeini Announces Dissuasion from Candidacy in June Election
Furthermore, the Supreme Leader has personally convinced one potential candidate not to engage in the Presidential competition. On April 12, Tasnim news agency affiliated with the IRGC-QF reported, “Seyyed Hassan Khomeini would not be a candidate for the 2021 election.” In recent months, ‘reformists’ had raised the name of the Islamic Republic founder’s grandson Hassan Khomeini as their main candidate. They believed that he could unify ‘reformist front’ due to his title. However, Khamenei personally spoke with him urging him not to run for the election. “The [Islamic] Revolution’s Supreme Leader considered that [Khomeini’s] candidacy in the election was not appropriate. He expressed that he counts Hassan as his son asking him not to enter this field in such circumstances,” said Yasser Khomeini, Hassan’s brother.Zarif’s Audiotape Removed Him from Election in Advance
On April 5, the leaked audiotape of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif’s interview with state-affiliated journalist Saeed Leylaz shocked both the people inside and his counterparties abroad. In his interview, the Foreign Minister had openly declared his opposition to the Islamic Republic’s regional path. He also admitted that Khamenei was the main orchestrator for nuclear talks laying all the blames on him. Already, Khamenei was beholden behind the curtains leaving the way open to criticize and breaches nuclear obligations. However, Zarif highlighted the role of the Supreme Leader and the IRGC eluding himself from nuclear talks’ consequences. Just a few hours before leaking the tape, Zarif had sarcastically announced his dissuasion from the Presidential election in a letter to Khamenei. He had warned about pressure led by Khamenei’s faction, saying, “I’m not concerned about getting low votes… I do not intend to run for Presidency, but I may revise my decision if the pressure increased.” In response, Khamenei severely chastised Zarif and all but barred him from running in the Presidential competition. “These days, we heard some remarks on behalf of some officials, which are surprising and unfortunate. I heard that enemy’s media had aired these remarks… Some of these remarks are the repetition of our enemies’ words,” he said. “For years, the Americans have been extremely unhappy about the Islamic Republic’s influence in the region. They were upset from the Quds Forces’ activities, and they killed Soleimani for this reason… Dividing diplomacy form the country’s other policies is a great mistake, which should not be made by an Islamic Republic official,” Khamenei added addressing Zarif’s remarks about Soleimani’s destructive role in foreign policies and “spending diplomacy on the field.”Khamenei-Controlled Guardian Council Purges Other Candidates
Meanwhile, the Guardian Council completed this path and almost purged less-known candidates paving the path for Khamenei’s desirable figure. In its recent directive about candidates’ conditions, the council has announced that Presidential candidates must be neither less than 40 nor above 75 years old, meaning 39-year-old Mohammad-Javad Azari Jahromi, the current Minister of Information and Communications Technology, and 80-year-old Mohammad Gharazi, the former Minister of Petroleum, cannot run for the Presidency. Also, the council has emphasized that candidates should enjoy a sufficient managerial background, and they should not have criminal convictions. Therefore, Saeed Mohammad—for the lack of managerial records—and Mostafa Tajzadeh—for his criminal conviction in 2009—were purged.Who Is Khamenei’s Required President?
Already, observers thought Saeed Mohammad is Khamenei’s required candidate and potential president due to the Supreme Leader’s previous comments about the establishment of a “young and hezbollahi government.” Khamenei, of course, declared his intention more bluntly by pointing to Qassem Soleimani’s method and iconic role. However, following Mohammad’s resignation from the IRGC Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, the IRGC deputy for political affairs Yadollah Javani revealed that Mohammad had actually been fired due to his corruption cases. To save face, Mohammad rejected Javani’s remarks bringing the rivalries to new levels. Eventually, in an interview with the IRGC-controlled Fars news agency, the Supreme Leader’s Representative for the IRGC Abdollah Haji Sadeqi approved Javani’s position. “Javani has raised the opinion of the IRGC supreme commandership—an indirect mention to Khamenei and not even the IRGC commander-in-chief Hossein Salami,” said Haji Sadeqi. On the other hand, Khamenei’s loyalists in the Majlis and colleges launched two separate campaigns inviting Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi to run for the Presidency. “In a letter to the Ayatollah Raisi, more than 220 MPs invited the Judiciary Chief to register for the Presidential election due to the country’s dire economic, political, social, and cultural conditions and his executive records for taking office,” Fars reported on April 26. MPs’ letter sent two messages to both Khamenei’s supporters and opponents. They obviously acknowledged his supporters that Khamenei’s required candidate is Ebrahim Raisi, not Ghalibaf, Mohammad, Rostami, or Jalili. MPs also clarified that Khamenei would no longer step back from Raisi as the president. A day later, Fars once again reported, “More than 2,000 professors, student activists, and graduates—affiliated with the IRGC and Basij paramilitary forces—joined the campaign for the invitation of Raisi to run for the 2021 Presidential election.” Furthermore, other principalists’ candidates like Speaker Ghalibaf have announced that they would withdraw from the Presidential competition if Raisi announced his candidacy. In the previous Presidential election, Ghalibaf withdrew in favor of Raisi.Why Has Raisi Not Announced He Is Running for Election Yet?
Raisi is known as one of the most notorious judges in Iran for his role in the mass killing of thousands of political prisoners in 1988. In May 2017, he tried his chance but failed despite Khamenei and the IRGC’s support. He is also a potential candidate for replacing Khamenei as Supreme Leader. In this respect, the issue is not too easy. Raisi started his provincial trips some while ago, which is considered as an unannounced action for a Presidential candidacy. However, Raisi still refuses to announce his candidacy formally. Observers believe that he is concerned about another public apathy as the government experienced in the February 2020 Parliamentary elections. In this context, Raisi prefers to hold the Judiciary Chief post rather than betting on a dead horse and tarnishing his reputation on the cusp of the death of Khamenei and taking the Supreme Leader’s office. In other words, Raisi would not run in the election without necessary guarantees by Khamenei and IRGC ensuring a significant victory for him. However, the upcoming developments inside Iran and abroad may motivate Raisi and may persuade Khamenei to look for another figure. It all depends on the time.European Intelligence Shows Iran’s Pursuit of Nukes
Iran has repeatedly tried to develop business contacts in the developed world with the intention of getting equipment and knowledge that could be used to further their nuclear program or even develop weapons of mass destruction, according to intelligence reports from Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands, which all highlighted incidents from 2020.
Yes, despite the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was designed to stop Iran from continuing its nuclear program, Tehran has barrelled ahead, proving what the Resistance said from the start, that the JCPOA was nowhere near comprehensive enough to deal with the Tehran’s malign behaviour.
The German report said that Iran is “making efforts to expand their conventional arsenal of weapons through the production or constant modernization of weapons of mass destruction”, while the Swedish report accuses Tehran of industrial espionage against “Swedish hi-tech industry and Swedish products, which can be used in nuclear weapons programs”.
The Iranian Resistance wrote: “This surely comes as no surprise to the early critics of the deal, who anticipated that it would prompt Iranian authorities to scale back certain nuclear activities that were subject to international scrutiny while stepping up those that would allow the regime to secretly advance its capabilities in other areas.”
But the situation may be worse than expected if we look at comments by the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Akbar Salehi, who said in January 2019 that Tehran lied about deactivating the Arak heavy water facility and ensured that the government would be able to quickly ramp up uranium enrichment if needed, which they subsequently did. The problem is compounded by the fact that the International Atomic Energy Agency has not been able to fully monitor the nuclear activity taking place.
So, why, oh why, are the Europeans so keen to restore the deal by getting the US to re-join and drop sanctions on Iran?
The Resistance wrote: “There can be no justification for returning to the JCPOA as written. The US, Britain, France, and Germany must all recognize that the prior enforcement mechanisms were not sufficient for dealing with a regime that has no interest in cooperating with its interlocutors or voluntarily restraining its own behaviour. At every turn, the leadership of the Iranian regime must be compelled to change that behaviour, whether by complying with specified enrichment limits or by accepting snap inspections of all suspected nuclear sites or by halting its procurement efforts in the West.”
On May 12, Reuters wrote that the Iranian regime has enriched uranium to up to 63% purity, according to the IAEA, which is clear breach of its JCPOA obligations.
“Fluctuations” at Iran’s Natanz plant pushed the purity to which it enriched uranium to 63%, higher than the announced 60% that complicated talks to revive its nuclear deal with world powers, a report by the U.N. nuclear watchdog said on Tuesday.” (Reuters, May 12)
Warning the government Mojtaba Zolnour, Chairman of the Parliamentary Security Commission said that the extension of the Agency’s inspection is subject to the opinion of the Parliament or the Supreme National Security Council. Which is a clear sign that the Iranian regime is on the path to cancel and prevent the IAEA’s inspection, to continue its illegal nuclear program without any barriers.
“Araqchi’s statement was wrong, the extension of the inspection and the agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency is not in the hands of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Atomic Energy Organization, this should be done with the opinion of the parliament or within the framework of the law strategic action to lift sanctions, and it is done with the discretion of the Supreme National Security Council.” (Mojtaba Zolnour, May 12, 2021)
Iran Protests Continue on Sunday
Protests by people from all social classes, all employment sectors, and all age ranges are continuing to be seen across Iran, as the public are outraged by both the authorieties’ general failure to improve the lot of the people and its issues surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic.
On Sunday, May 9, alone, there were at least three major protests, all featuring very simple demands that should not take a lot of effort to meet.
Retirees of the Social Security Organization held nationwide protests in a dozen cities to demand that their pensions be adjusted in line with inflation. They’ve been holding protests – sometimes twice weekly – for a few months now over officials’ corruption and failure to address their needs.
They chanted:
- “Imprisoned worker should be freed”
- “We won’t vote any more, we’ve heard too many lies”
- “We suffer from injustice and Covid-19, no one cares about us”
- “Retirees, stand up again injustice and oppression”
