In its short-term energy outlook, the EIA said Iran’s oil output dropped by 50,000 barrels a day in September, after a 100,000-barrels-a-day decline in August.
The EIA estimates the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will keep output around 31 million barrels a day in 2013, steady with the expected 2012 level, which is up from 29.83 million barrels a day in 2011. Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is expected to keep output at or near 10 million barrels a day, leaving global spare output capacity of around 2 million barrels a day concentrated in the kingdom.
OPEC pumped an estimated 30.85 million barrels a day of crude in September, down 400,000 barrels a day from August, the EIA said. Saudi Arabia’s output dropped 200,000 barrels a day, to 9.8 million barrels a day, while output slipped in Nigeria and Angola. Iraqi output was steady month-to-month at 3.15 million barrels a day, keeping it at OPEC’s second-biggest producer, after Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s flow has topped Iran’s since July. Kuwait’s flow was steady at 2.6 million barrels a day, according to EIA, but the nation’s oil minister said recently output is 3 million barrels a day.
Company-held oil inventories in the major industrialized nations that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are expected to hit a 21-year high by year end of 57 days of forward demand cover. That’s up from 56 days in the fourth quarter last year.
The EIA said the high stock cover is a result of declining OECD oil demand.
For the fourth quarter, the EIA continues to project modest global oil demand growth of about 0.9%, or 800,000 barrels a day, to 89.5 million barrels a day. OECD demand is expected to slip by around 300,000 barrels a day year-on-year in the quarter, while China’s demand rises by around 500,000 barrels a day, or about 45% of total non-OECD demand growth.
In 2013, the EIA sees global oil demand up 1%, at 90 million barrels a day, with China’s demand up 400,000 barrels a day, to 10.6 million barrels a day.
Non-OPEC oil output is expected to rise by 570,000 barrels a day this year and by 1.2 million barrels a day next year, led by gains in Canada and the U.S. Crude oil output in the U.S. is expected to hit its highest level since 1993 next year on rising output from shale oil fields.
The EIA’s global oil demand estimates are based on world oil-consumption-weighted real gross domestic product growth of 2.7% in 2012 and 2.5% in 2013.
The EIA continues to see North Sea Brent crude averaging near $111 a barrel in the current quarter, and $103 a barrel next year. Saudi Arabia has repeatedly said it wants to see Brent prices near $100 a barrel and is keeping its output high to meet demand and to moderate prices.
