On August 1, 2023, the statements of Hossein Salami, the head of Iran regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), on Khabar TV revealed a new dimension of confusion, fear, desperation, and ignorance within the regime. These statements underscored, more than ever before, that the rhetoric of the regime’s leaders and stalwarts serves as a smokescreen to conceal the dire state of the regime.
Let’s revisit the significant points made by Hossein Salami:
1. He referred to the series of uprisings, particularly the 2022 uprising, as “the most potent, perilous, grave, unequal, and far-reaching global challenge” against the regime.
2. In an attempt to counteract the inclination towards regime overthrow on the anniversary of the nationwide uprising, he urged the regime’s supporters and disheartened operatives to “broaden their understanding, identify leaders, and constrain them.” He issued a warning, “lest we regret our inaction.”
3. He advised them to oversee universities and schools, emphasizing that vulnerabilities can arise through small openings. He likened societal damage to a dam rupture caused by a minor crack, highlighting the importance of sealing these vulnerabilities.
Salami’s statements undeniably underscore that the Velayat al-Faqih system is now more fragile than ever in the aftermath of substantial setbacks.
Continuing with these declarations, it’s worthwhile to examine Salami’s discourse during the so-called “Conference on the Implementation of the Basij Mobilization Order.” This speech, aside from revealing heightened anxiety over the anniversary of the nationwide uprising, exposes additional facets of the regime’s fragility.
In one segment of his speech, he asserted, “Basij bases must devise a strategic plan!”
A strategic plan to counter what type of threat?
Following the proliferation of slogans like “our enemy is right here/they are lying, it is America,” there are few who remain unaware that demonizing America or other illusory adversaries serves to mask the four-decade-long conflict between the Iranian people and resistance on one side and the regime on the other. This conflict has reached a pivotal juncture. Salami’s call for a “strategic plan!” implies the array of measures the regime needs to forestall the potential overthrow. However, there are implications beyond mere words. Presently, the regime grapples with diminished motivation, demoralization, and erosion within its repressive apparatus. The nationwide uprising showcased the populace’s uncontrollable fury, creating deep-seated apprehension about facing it anew.
In a separate portion of his speech, the outspoken leader of the IRGC mentioned “mistakes” and “regrets” in the aftermath of adversity:
“If a nation and society stumble at a historical juncture, it’s plausible for this failure and Islam’s weakness to be exposed perpetually. The divine light may remain obscured for a protracted period, mosques could fall silent, and only the collective efforts of believers can extricate Islam from these predicaments and emancipate Muslims from tyranny’s yoke.”
Salami referred to crises, any one of which could potentially topple the regime. The use of terms like “psychological warfare” and “spiritual depletion and humiliation!” underscore his critical evaluation of the repressive apparatus. Moreover, his reassurance to Khamenei about the Basij’s stance signifies a precarious state within the government’s repressive forces. The deployment of these forces to the streets and rebellion-prone zones exposes the regime’s limited reserves amid the uprising’s outbreak and the looming specter of overthrow. This year presents a higher probability of confrontation compared to the previous one, and Salami provides a preemptive alert:
“Last year, the enemy aimed to alienate youth from the revolution, transforming universities, factories, markets, media, and every domain into battlefields. Basij brothers and sisters, you hold an extraordinary position in history, and the future shall judge you accordingly. As you castigate those who squandered past opportunities, empower the youth.”
These declarations from the highest echelons of repression and terrorism within the Revolutionary Guards and other anti-populist elements of the regime underscore the government’s fragility against the rage of rebellious youth and the uprising population of Iran. Instead of projecting strength, these mournful outcries radiate vulnerability, fatigue, and impending collapse. Their message is the uncompromising overthrow of religious fascism, an indomitable prospect on the horizon.
Continuing the theme of revealing the fragility and failures of the religious regime, another significant insight emerges from the recent speech of regime president Ebrahim Raisi. Raisi, who was a member of the death commission of the 1988 massacre of political prisoners, spoke during a ceremony commemorating the regime’s ‘martyrs of the shrine,’ shedding light on the depths of the regime’s depravity and desperation.
In his speech, Raisi emphasized the imperative of preserving the ‘sacred system,’ drawing parallels to the words of the slain former head of the regime’s Quds force Qassem Soleimani, thereby underscoring the regime’s desperate struggle to maintain its grasp on power. His use of the term ‘sanctuary’ to describe the regime’s existence echoes its past manipulation of religious terminology to justify its actions, both at home and abroad.
Raisi’s speech serves as a poignant reminder of the regime’s singular focus on self-preservation, underscoring the fact that all of its actions and rhetoric are geared towards avoiding its downfall. This obsession with survival has led to a cascade of disgraceful measures, from interfering in the affairs of other nations to investing exorbitant resources in military pursuits and weaponry.
However, behind these desperate actions lies a growing uncertainty within the regime’s leadership. Raisi’s conditional use of the word ‘if’ – ‘If this sanctuary remains, other sanctuary places will also remain’ – reveals the deep-seated doubt that now permeates the highest echelons of power. This doubt is rooted in the realization that the regime’s survival is hanging by a thread, and this last chance to maintain control could very well slip through their fingers.
The regime’s rhetoric, once filled with claims of ‘strategic depth,’ ‘global reshaping,’ and ‘endogenous capabilities,’ now rings hollow in the face of its impending collapse. The once-touted ‘strategic depth’ has crumbled as the regime’s ambitions have been curtailed, with Raisi referencing the ‘defenders of the shrine’ – a plain contrast to the regime’s past efforts to establish a ‘Shia crescent.’ Now, their battle for survival is not fought in foreign lands, but within the heart of Iran itself.
As the regime’s highest leaders voice their concerns about preservation and survival, their words reveal a deeply fractured and vulnerable entity. Together with the observations from Hossein Salami’s statements, these declarations highlight the regime’s rapidly diminishing strength, its internal demoralization, and its impending collapse in the face of the Iranian people’s determination for change.
