The political landscape in Iran, particularly in light of international developments, reveals that the ruling regime has long pursued a policy of confronting internal discontent through repression. The regime closely monitors local and international events to assess their impact on the growing public discontent. This has gained particular significance with the increasing international isolation and economic crises threatening the regime’s survival. Political developments in the United States, especially election outcomes, bear critical implications for the future of the Iranian regime. While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other leaders publicly deny such influence, initial reactions reveal the truth.
Ahmad Zaid Abadi, a theorist from the so-called reformist faction within the regime, commented on the possible return of Donald Trump to presidency in the U.S.: “To have a narcissistic, deceitful, and unpredictable figure in the White House for another four years is torment for people like me thousands of kilometers away.”
Zeid Abadi added, “The primary problem is that we do not know how Trump would handle global crises, especially the Middle East crisis. Personally, I would need three days of meditation in the mountains around the village of Shurcheshmeh to reorganize my thoughts and understand the new circumstances.”
He further emphasized Iran’s limited capabilities: “If Trump acts aggressively in our region, how can we confront him? Our capabilities are limited, while his executive apparatus possesses immense power!”
Zeid Abadi also expressed concern about the potential return of David Friedman as part of the U.S. administration, stating: “I cannot bear the thought of David Friedman’s return to a position of power in the U.S. Middle East policy! Are the three mentioned problems not enough to highlight more?”
In a previous interview with the “Ham-Mihan” newspaper, Zeid Abadi noted: “If we assume Donald Trump regains the presidency and figures such as Jared Kushner and Mike Pompeo return to power, they will push us into submission under humiliating conditions. Otherwise, they will escalate and initiate attacks… Sometimes governments are forced to choose between bad and worse. Under current conditions, we need to find the best option for our country. Continued conflict means more blows to Iran, potentially extending beyond military strikes to affect its political standing and even creating an existential crisis.”
Similarly, Sadeq Hosseini, another prominent regime theorist, expressed his concerns about Trump’s return and its negative impact on the Iranian regime on his Telegram channel: “Four years ago, when Biden was elected, I said that Trump and Trumpism would return strongly and win the next presidential election. I repeatedly warned that time is running out, and we need to undertake internal reforms and solidify our position in the region and the world before Trump’s return. However, nothing was done.”
Hosseini also foresees that a second Trump term would be more perilous, expecting early pressure on Iran’s regime, particularly through reduced oil revenues. He also anticipates the U.S. to confront Iran’s regime openly, thereby increasing economic risks and complicating regional decision-making.
