Iran’s regime once considered Syria as its”thirty-fifth province,” as described by Mehdi Taeb, a commander at the Ammar Base. But it has now become a field indicating Iran’s strategic defeat. Taeb’s statement on February 15, 2013, underscores Tehran’s significance on Syria: “If the enemy attacks us and decides to take Ahvaz or Syria, our priority is to keep Syria because if we keep Syria, we can recover Ahvaz. But if we lose Syria, we can’t even keep Tehran” (Asr Iran newspaper). These statements affirm Syria’s role not just as land, but as a cornerstone in Iran’s regional strategy.
Syria plays a vital role in the strategic depth of Iran’s regime. However, this depth is now more threatened than ever due to political shifts and domestic and international pressures against Bashar al-Assad’s regime, representing a significant strategic blow to Khamenei’s regime.
Costly Terrorist Interventions
Iran’s interventionist policies in Syria, based on the doctrine of religious fascism, have consistently supported Bashar al-Assad. Over the years, reports have indicated that at least $50 billion of Iran’s national resources, managed by the former Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani, known as the butcher of the Syrian people, were spent to bolster the Assad regime.
Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh inadvertently acknowledged part of these expenditures on May 21, 2020, saying: “When I went to Syria, some said that I spent a lot! But I repeat, perhaps we gave $20 to $30 billion to Syria, and we must retrieve it. Our people’s money was spent there” (source: Asr Iran). These enormous sums were pumped into Syria at a time when Iranians were suffering from severe economic difficulties and poverty, sparking widespread protests with chants like “Leave Syria, think of us.”
UN Resolution 2254 and Khamenei’s Obstruction
Nine years ago, UN Resolution 2254 was adopted by the Security Council as a solution to end the Syrian crisis. The resolution aims for political transition and a cessation of hostilities. However, the Iranian regime, led by Khamenei and its proxy forces, has obstructed its implementation. By labeling their involvement as “defending the Zeinabiyya,” they have bolstered Assad, affecting the political transition process in Syria and rendering international efforts to end the conflict ineffective.
The End of a Delusional Project
As mentioned, the loss of strategic depth in Syria significantly weakens the regime’s regional influence network. For years, Khamenei considered Syria the “tent pole of the resistance,” sparing no effort to maintain it. However, today, his dreams turn into a nightmare.
Khamenei’s previous statements about the link between Syria and maintaining the regime of theocracy illustrate the importance of this link: “If these battles were not fought, the enemy would come inside the country, and we would have to fight them here in Kermanshah, Hamedan, and other provinces” (Khamenei’s website, February 5, 2015).
The collapse of the Syrian regime, in addition to being a strategic defeat, also reflects the failure of the Iranian regime’s regional policies and its clear collapse.
The Strategic Defeat in Syria and Its Consequences
The developments on the ground in Syria serve as evidence of the collapse of “strategic depth” and the ambitious expansion policies of religious fascism. Reflecting on Taeb’s acknowledgment, it becomes clear that with the loss of Syria, the religious regime will not be able to maintain Tehran or Iran, rightfully belonging to the Iranian people who, through organized resistance and a democratic revolution, will reclaim it from the clutches of the clerics.
