Javad Arianmanesh, a former member of Iran’s regime Majlis (parliament), warned about the “disastrous” state of Iran’s economic and social conditions and expressed concern over the regime’s anxiety regarding the “dangerous situation.” He also attributed the causes of the January 2018 protests to the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad, emphasizing that the “entire system” has become “indifferent” to hardliners.
Arianmanesh, a conservative MP from 2004 to 2012, in an interview with Jamaran website—affiliated with the family of Ruhollah Khomeini—stated that currently “the popular base of the hardliner movement” is shrinking rapidly, and even religious ideologies can no longer connect the people to that movement.
He described the country’s situation as “critical” and, referring to the Iranian year 1404 (beginning March 21, 2025), which marks the final year of the regime’s 20-year development plan, said: “We were supposed to be the top economic and military power in the region by now, but the country’s situation in all economic, social, and other areas is extremely disastrous.”
The former MP from Mashhad and Kalat spoke about the roots of the January 2018 protests, saying: “In such conditions, any kind of gathering or protest can harm the country and pave the way for larger unrest. Just like in 1396 (January 2018), when a radical faction initiated a protest but later lost control, leading to extensive financial and human losses.”
Protesting Retirees in Cities Across Iran Chant Slogans Against Regime Officials
According to parts of both conservative and reformist factions within Iran’s regime, the January 2018 protests were sparked by Ahmad Alamolhoda, the Friday prayer leader of Mashhad.
In an August 2018 interview with the same website, the former Majlis Member criticized the Mashhad Friday prayer leader, stating: “The country is suffering from a series of economic crises that are hurting the people—issues like poverty, corruption, discrimination, inequality, rising inflation, skyrocketing prices, declining purchasing power, currency devaluation, and many more economic problems… The clergy, religious figures, and Friday prayer leaders should represent unity, cohesion, and problem-solving. The representative of the Supreme Leader (Iran’s regime head, Ali Khamenei) has such high-level access that there is no need to mobilize people into the streets to chant slogans.”
Since the third quarter of 2024, current and former officials of Iran’s regime have repeatedly warned about mounting public discontent and the potential for widespread protests.
Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli, the former interior minister of the regime and one of its highest-ranking security officials during the nationwide protests of November 2019, warned on February 7, 2025, that public dissatisfaction is growing. He cautioned the administration of current regime president Masoud Pezeshkian, describing the present situation as “much more concerning” than that of November 2019.
Arianmanesh believes that both international and regional conditions have become more sensitive, and that domestic shortages and imbalances have fueled growing societal discontent. He said Iran’s regime is concerned that the situation may lead to widespread protests.
The former MP said: “It seems even senior figures within the hardliner faction, who have always tried to exploit every situation for partisan gain, are now worried that any irrational move could cause them to lose control of the situation—especially since the regime’s broader indifference toward them has led them to pull back somewhat.”
He emphasized: “In any case, the regime has now reached a dangerous stage, and aside from rational thinking and revising its misguided policies, it has no other path forward.”
The people have moved beyond reformists and conservatives
Arianmanesh confirmed that the public no longer trusts either conservatives or reformists, stating: “Ordinary people have distanced themselves from these political factions due to their inefficiency.”
He attributed the remaining “few” supporters of hardliners to personal interests and added: “Even these few supporters no longer see their interests aligned with issues like enforcing mandatory hijab or opposing negotiations, and thus their numbers are steadily decreasing.”
