A new study shows that the unprecedented drought that has gripped Iran, Iraq, and Syria over the past five years would not have occurred with its current severity without climate change caused by human activities. For non-Iranian readers: Iran, Iraq, and Syria form a region already highly vulnerable to water scarcity and long-term mismanagement.
Scientists from the “World Weather Attribution” (WWA) group announced on Friday, November 21, 2025, that the rise in global temperatures caused by the burning of fossil fuels is the main factor pushing these three countries into an “exceptional” drought.
According to this study, which updates the group’s analysis of the region’s conditions for 2023, “this is the worst recorded drought in Iran.” With data updated to June 2025, researchers identified a stronger link between warming and long-term drought.
U.S. State Dept: Iran’s Water Crisis Is Result of Decades of Regime Mismanagement
The group’s study, based on “strong evidence,” shows that human-driven climate change has increased the risk of drought by more than ten-fold and that these changes have undermined development gains made after regional conflicts.
According to these scientists, in a world without global warming, the ongoing drought—although already underway—would have been far less severe.
The study also emphasizes that structural weaknesses, including inefficient or overly interventionist water management, overgrazing beyond the natural capacity of the land, and agricultural expansion, have aggravated the water crisis in Iran, Iraq, and Syria.
Climate scientists have repeatedly warned since at least 2015 that the Middle East is likely the world’s most vulnerable region to the impacts of climate change.
The group’s new study on Iran states that the current dire situation is part of a longer-term water crisis in Iran and the region, driven by a wide range of factors, including recurring droughts combined with higher evaporation rates, water-intensive agriculture, and unsustainable extraction of groundwater.
These combined pressures have led to chronic water stress in major urban centers, including Tehran. Reports indicate that these cities face the risk of severe shortages and emergency rationing. At the same time, agricultural productivity is affected and competition over scarce resources is intensifying.
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According to the study, agriculture consumes more than 90% of Iran’s water resources. Water stress particularly affects farmers whose income depends on irrigated crops.
According to the WWA scientists, a five-year drought such as the one experienced since 2020 is no longer unusual under today’s climate conditions. But in a world without global warming, such a drought would be expected to occur only two to three times per century and would have been far less intense.
WWA studies compare the likelihood of a current weather event with the likelihood of the same event occurring in a world without human-driven climate change, allowing scientists to assess the extent of global warming’s impact on present conditions.
Iran is not the only country facing water scarcity. It is estimated that nearly one-third of all major cities worldwide will exhaust their current water supplies by 2050.
The convergence of urbanization, increased demand, and governance-related issues has fueled water shortages worldwide, and climate change has further intensified the problem.
The WWA study concludes that urban water resilience requires diversified water sources, demand management, upgraded and more efficient water infrastructure, and improved institutional capacity to manage limited water resources.
Iran has made headlines in recent months due to extensive government actions, including cloud-seeding attempts to induce rainfall and severe water restrictions across many districts of Tehran and other cities.
Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran’s regime, said in August: “Because of mindless development, today we have no water under our feet and none behind the dams.”
Pezeshkian’s chief of staff, Mohsen Haji Mirzaei, also said recently on state-run television: “Scientific studies, charts, and evaluations show that all water-management policies implemented before and after the revolution have made the situation worse.”
Iran’s neighbor Iraq is also experiencing its driest period since 1933, while Syria is grappling with its worst drought in four decades.
