Ali Nassiri, head of Tehran’s Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, warned about the consequences of a major earthquake in the capital, saying that an earthquake with a magnitude above six could cause human losses far heavier than war.
Nassiri, head of Tehran’s Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, said in an interview on Wednesday, December 24, with ISNA, a state-run news agency, that earthquakes are “the most important and most destructive threat facing Tehran.” He added that an earthquake would be even more devastating for the capital than war, because if a severe earthquake occurs, the scale of human casualties could exceed the total victims of past wars and major disasters.
Rejecting rumors about the “man-made creation of earthquakes,” Nassiri stressed that major earthquakes have no human origin whatsoever and that claims about triggering earthquakes through military or nuclear tests lack any scientific basis.
He added that such narratives only divert public attention from the main necessity, which is prevention and preparedness.
Media in Iran reported on December 13, citing Tehran emergency officials, that land subsidence had occurred in the Valiasr Township in the south of the capital, attributing it to “sand and gravel extraction and dried-up qanats.”
Jalal Maleki, spokesperson for the Tehran Fire Department, said the subsidence covered an area of about 10 meters and had a depth of about one and a half meters, trapping three vehicles that were unable to get out.
Ali Beitollahi, head of the earthquake and hazards department at the Road, Housing, and Urban Development Research Center, also told the agency that the subsidence occurred early Friday morning on December 12, coinciding with the start of rainfall in Tehran, and was a type of “sudden subsidence” (ground collapse).
The destruction of a hospital, the collapse of hope
The head of Tehran’s Disaster Prevention and Management Organization, referring to the condition of hospitals, said that the collapse of a hospital is not merely the destruction of a building, but rather “the collapse of people’s hope.”
According to him, hospitals are symbols of citizens’ psychological security, and damage to them during a crisis, beyond structural destruction, leads to the loss of human capital, including medical staff and patients.
Mehdi Zare, a professor at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, told Khabar Online on December 5: “Excessive pumping of groundwater in the plains of Tehran, Rey, and surrounding areas, and the resulting land subsidence, affects the activation of active faults in the region.”
Zare emphasized: “Over-extraction of groundwater, especially in alluvial plains, leads to the compaction of soil and sediment layers and ultimately to land subsidence.”
Prevention is more cost-effective
Emphasizing that prevention should take precedence over post-disaster response, Nassiri said that in many cases the cost of retrofitting or even fully renovating buildings is lower than the chain of costs imposed after a crisis, from debris removal and emergency sheltering to temporary housing and years-long reconstruction.
Pointing out that human lives cannot be priced, he said: “Experience has shown that prevention is more cost-effective, both in human and economic terms.”
Nassiri stressed that public budgets and oil revenues no longer have the capacity to bear the heavy burden of widespread safety measures, and that urban management is forced to move toward modern, sustainable, and revenue-generating methods.
Kamran Abdoli, deputy for prevention and fire safety at the Fire Department, said on November 1 that 80,000 unsafe buildings have been identified in Tehran.
He emphasized that inspection system assessments by the Fire Department show that of these, three thousand are low-risk, 50,000 are medium-risk, and about 27,000 are high-risk buildings.
Earlier, in late September, the deputy head of Tehran’s Urban Renewal Organization said that loans for renovating deteriorated urban fabric in Tehran have not been paid for about three years.
Tehran is located among several active faults, including the North Tehran Fault with the potential for a magnitude 7.2 earthquake and the southern Rey and Kahrizak faults with a magnitude capacity of 6.7, a situation that has multiplied concerns over the potential for widespread earthquake damage in the capital.
