Today, the Assembly of Experts of Iran’s regime, the clerical body responsible for selecting the supreme leader, announced that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei, has been chosen as his father’s successor. In previous years, his name had repeatedly been at different stages as a possible successor to Ali Khamenei, and it was widely known that he was one of the main candidates for this position
Over the past four decades, the power structure of the regime has been shaped more than anything around a single individual. Since the death of Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, all power dynamics have gradually become concentrated in the hands of his successor, Iranian regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei.
Ninth Day of War Marked by Extensive Attacks on Fuel Facilities in Tehran and Karaj
Khamenei was not only a political leader; he was the final arbiter among all factions within the regime. Disputes among governments, security commanders, clerics, and economic networks were ultimately settled in his office. For this reason, he was described as the “pillar of the regime’s tent.”
But the main question is this: When this pillar is removed, will the tent remain standing?
The succession crisis; a knot that will not easily be untied
Unlike in 1989, today the regime faces a series of simultaneous crises:
A deep divide between the government and society, internal economic and political pressures, intense rivalries within the ruling establishment, and a lack of political legitimacy in public opinion.
Can Khamenei be replicated?
Khamenei had more than three decades to eliminate his rivals and build his own power network—an opportunity that his potential successor will never have. Nevertheless, the regime will be forced to find a successor for its deceased Supreme Leader.
However, the regime does not have a figure who is acceptable to all factions and internal groups of the system and the hierarchy of clerics, even though several figures are being floated as candidates behind the scenes. For them, Mojtaba Khamenei—Ali Khamenei’s son—is considered the best option because, in addition to carrying the Khamenei name, he has effectively held influence over the country’s military, intelligence, and economic power structures and the administration of the Supreme Leader’s office in recent years.
But neither he nor anyone else will ever be able to fill the leadership vacuum of the regime, because Iranian society and the people of Iran—continuing the path of the January uprising—will not allow the regime to rebuild itself.
We, as the people of Iran—especially after the turning point of the January uprising that has placed the overthrow of the regime within reach and the death of Khamenei has sealed it—have never looked to foreign war. We believe that
The overthrow will only be achieved in the streets through an organized uprising and in continuation of the January uprising.
