A classified intelligence assessment in the United States, prepared only one week before the start of the war, indicates that even if a large-scale military operation against Iran were carried out, the likelihood of the collapse of the country’s governing structure would be low and the main power institutions in Iran’s regime might remain intact.
Doubts among U.S. intelligence agencies about the ability of opponents of Iran’s regime to take power had also been raised in reports by The New York Times, Reuters, and The Wall Street Journal. However, the assessment of the U.S. National Intelligence Council and its analysis of the possible consequences of both small and large attacks against Iran had not previously been reported.
The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), led by Maryam Rajavi, has repeatedly stated that the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime in Iran will not be achieved through a foreign war. According to this position, the regime can only be brought down through a popular uprising and the organization of armed groups by the Iranian people themselves. The National Council of Resistance of Iran and the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the largest organized opposition group, have been engaged in struggle against Iran’s regime since 1981 and have lost many of their members and supporters in this conflict.
Announcement of a Provisional Government by the National Council of Resistance of Iran
Last week, Maryam Rajavi announced a provisional government intended to transfer sovereignty to the people of Iran. This government would step down within six months after the establishment of a Constituent Assembly.
In this process, attempts to manufacture an opposition for Iran—such as replacing the current system with the son of the former dictator, Reza Pahlavi—will not help bring freedom to the Iranian people but will instead become an obstacle to democracy, peace, and stability in the region.
The experiences of Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrate that only through free and popular elections can a stable government be established in Iran, and only through such a process can regional stability be guaranteed.
According to The Washington Post, citing senior U.S. intelligence sources, a report prepared by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) concluded that the power structure in Iran—composed of clerical and military institutions—is so deeply entrenched that even a large-scale military attack by the United States would likely not be able to overthrow it.
According to the classified report, U.S. intelligence analysts assessed that even if Washington launched either a short-term or long-term military campaign, it would be unlikely that forces opposing Iran’s regime could take power.
This assessment contradicts the publicly stated positions of U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump had previously declared that Washington could purge Iran’s leadership structure and replace it with a new governing authority.
Which scenarios had been examined?
The report was prepared about one week before the start of the joint U.S.–Israel military operation on February 28.
The document examined several scenarios, including a limited attack targeting Iran’s leaders or a broader attack against the leadership structure and government institutions.
The U.S. National Intelligence Council consists of a group of senior and experienced intelligence analysts responsible for producing classified assessments. Their evaluations reflect the collective conclusions and shared views of the 18 intelligence organizations based in Washington.
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The White House has not specified whether the U.S. president was aware of this assessment before authorizing the military operation.
However, the intelligence report does not appear to have examined other possible scenarios, including deploying U.S. ground troops inside Iran or arming opposition forces to trigger an uprising.
It is also unclear whether the large-scale military campaign examined in the classified document is the same as the operations currently underway.
Trump has also suggested that he should have a role in selecting Iran’s next leader. He emphasized that he does not want leaders to come to power in Iran who would simply rebuild the country’s nuclear infrastructure and ballistic missiles.
In response, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Iran’s parliament (Majlis), rejected the notion that Trump would have any role in determining Iran’s next leader.
“Continuation of exerting dominance inside the country”
Current and former U.S. officials say that so far, they see little sign of a large-scale popular uprising in Iran or a serious split within the regime or the security forces that could lead to the formation of a new system.
The security forces of Iran’s regime killed thousands of protesters during the January protests, which emerged due to the country’s severe economic conditions. Meanwhile, Trump advised the Iranian people to remain sheltered in their locations until the end of the U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign.
