By Anton La Guardia, Diplomatic Editor
In a gloomy assessment, the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies said America had no simple military way of stopping Iran going nuclear. It said the West’s best hope was to buy time through diplomacy.
IISS expressed alarm at the “erosion” of counter-proliferation measures, saying it could lead ultimately to terrorist groups such as al-Qa’eda obtaining atomic bombs.
Iran says it wants nuclear power to generate electricity, but the West fears that Teheran’s attempt to master uranium enrichment will allow it to build atomic bombs within years.
Under a deal struck last November with Britain, France and Germany, Iran agreed to freeze “temporarily” its enrichment programme pending talks on improving economic, political and security relations.
The US supported the so-called EU-3 by promising not to block Iran’s application to join the World Trade Organisation, and to sell spare parts for Teheran’s ageing airliners.
But Iran is now threatening to renege on part of the deal, saying it is ready to resume production of uranium hexafluoride, the gas used for uranium enrichment, unless the Europeans make unspecified concessions.
The EU-3 have warned Teheran that “the consequences could only be negative for Iran” and that the Europeans would push to refer Iran to the United Nations for sanctions.
Senior European and Iranian officials met in Brussels yesterday to prepare for talks in Geneva today between European foreign ministers and Hassan Rohani, the Iranian national security chief, who is in overall charge of the nuclear programme.
With Iran due to hold presidential elections next month, both sides will be negotiating with an eye to the Iranian public.
At the launch of the IISS annual Strategic Survey, John Chipman, the institute’s director, said: “The EU3-Iran talks seem headed for inevitable failure – whether before or after the Iranian elections.”
However, he noted that the clerical regime had so far avoided confrontation in the UN Security Council for fear of losing domestic support.
Iran’s hardline Guardian Council watchdog yesterday reversed its ban on two reformists excluded from June’s presidential elections.
The reinstatement of former education minister Mostafa Moin and vice-president for sports Mohsen Mehr-Alizadeh brings the number of approved candidates to eight in the poll on June 17. – Reuters, Teheran
