Despite Iran’s immense potential in hydrocarbon resources and renewable energy, the country remains heavily dependent on natural gas to meet its electricity needs. Nuclear energy, despite massive investment, does not play a significant role in Iran’s energy security.
The Iranian regime, under its long-term strategy, has planned to increase its nuclear power generation capacity to 20 gigawatts by 2041.
Currently, the Bushehr nuclear power plant, with a capacity of 1,000 megawatts, has been the country’s only operational nuclear power facility since 2013. Two additional units are under construction at the same site, each also designed for 1,000 megawatts.
The regime has launched new nuclear power projects. The most significant is a 5-gigawatt plant planned in Hormozgan Province, consisting of four units, each with a capacity of 1,250 megawatts. This project, expected to take about nine years to complete, requires an investment of over $20 billion. Additionally, a smaller 300-megawatt plant is under construction in Khuzestan Province.
Challenges Facing the Iranian Regime’s Nuclear Program
Currently, nuclear power contributes only 1% to Iran’s electricity supply, amounting to 1,000 megawatts. To cover the existing 25,000-megawatt shortfall in the national grid, Iran would need to construct 25 plants similar to Bushehr—a plant that took about 20 years to build with Russian assistance. Since its commissioning in 2011, Bushehr has only produced 70 terawatt-hours of electricity, with a regional market value of under $6 billion.
This limited electricity output pales in comparison to the massive costs Iran has borne to develop its uranium enrichment program under the guise of nuclear power generation. The regime’s nuclear program has led to extensive international sanctions, which are estimated to have caused between $2 to $3 trillion in direct economic losses.
Iranian Regime Accelerates Uranium Enrichment to Concerning Levels
The Potential of Renewable Energy in Iran
Iran, with over 300 sunny days per year and access to windy coastal and mountainous regions, possesses a high potential for developing solar and wind energy. However, these renewable sources account for only 1% of the country’s electricity generation.
Meanwhile, according to the International Energy Agency, in 2024, more than 75% of newly built power plants worldwide were based on renewable sources, while nuclear power accounted for only 5% of new global electricity generation capacity.
Economic Analysis of Iran’s Nuclear Program
Every program, including the nuclear initiative, must be assessed based on cost-benefit analysis and associated risks. While nuclear energy could help reduce the electricity supply-demand imbalance, the heavy direct and indirect costs it has imposed on Iran’s economy have rendered it economically unviable.
According to conservative estimates, the Iranian regime has spent around $300 million annually on its nuclear program over the past three decades—totaling approximately $9 billion. However, the indirect costs have been significantly higher, with the program serving as a major driver behind international sanctions and a sharp decline in foreign investment. It is estimated that due to these sanctions, Iran has lost over $450 billion in oil export revenues alone. Over the last 20 years, it has also had one of the lowest foreign investment-to-GDP ratios globally.
Despite official claims of the program being peaceful, Iran’s pursuit of uranium enrichment up to 60% and continuation of its nuclear activities under the harshest sanctions suggest that deterrence and boosting its bargaining power in foreign policy outweigh economic and developmental interests.
The regime’s massive investments in a program with minimal economic return and negligible contribution to electricity production, combined with the damaging effects of sanctions and international isolation, indicate that decision-makers in Tehran are more focused on regime survival and external deterrence than on actual energy goals.
Iran’s secret nuclear program was first exposed by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), the largest Iranian opposition group. Prior to that, the program was unknown. If the regime’s intentions had been peaceful, it would have had no reason to hide nuclear sites or enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels.
The reality is that the regime’s nuclear strategy, which centers on deterrence and intentions to develop nuclear weapons, has sidelined economic and energy priorities.
The Iranian regime sees nuclear weapons as essential to its survival and to suppress the growing domestic unrest. All current claims about nuclear energy production are nothing but a mirage, and the regime has consistently proven this approach over the years.
Western governments must realize that the only effective way to confront this regime and its destructive and terrorist policies in the region is through firmness. The remaining path toward regime change will be taken by the people of Iran themselves. In this regard, the only request from the Iranian people to the West is to refrain from interfering, assisting, or granting concessions to the ruling clerics in Iran.
