The leaders of Iran’s regime are experiencing one of the most serious crises since the 1979 revolution. According to Reuters, this crisis is caused on the one hand by growing public discontent inside the country and on the other by the deadlock in nuclear negotiations—a situation that has further isolated and divided Iran.
On September 27, the United Nations reimposed sanctions on Iran’s regime that had been suspended under the 2015 nuclear deal. This action came after the failure of intense negotiations between the Iranian regime and three European countries—Britain, France, and Germany—held in New York on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
Four Iranian officials and two informed individuals told Reuters that without progress in the talks, Iran’s economic isolation will intensify and fuel public anger. However, they added that accepting Western demands could also deepen rifts within the ruling structure and force a retreat from the regime’s ideological belief of “never surrendering to Western pressure.”
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In reaction, Abbas Goudarzi, spokesperson for the presidium of the regime’s parliament (Majlis), announced that withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and pursuing the building of an atomic bomb are being considered under the supervision of the National Security Commission and in coordination with other regime institutions.
Concerns over possible Israeli attacks
The mullahs’ rule in Iran is trapped in a severe dilemma. The very existence of the regime is at risk. People can no longer endure more economic pressure or another war.
These concerns have escalated with the possibility of new Israeli attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities if nuclear diplomacy fails. In June, just one day before a new round of planned negotiations with the United States, Israeli airstrikes followed by three U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities shocked Tehran and led to a 12-day war.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have warned that if uranium enrichment resumes, they will strike Iran again.
Sanctions and doubts in Tehran
On August 28, the three European countries triggered the “snapback” mechanism and accused the Iranian regime of violating the 2015 agreement. The return of sanctions was implemented after unsuccessful attempts to delay it during the UN General Assembly.
Officials of the regime have said these sanctions will push them toward adopting a tougher stance in the nuclear file. However, analysts believe the threat of Israeli strikes has tied Tehran’s hands. Nevertheless, Hossein Shariatmadari, representative of regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei in Kayhan, the regime’s main state-run daily, wrote: “Now that the officials are not willing to withdraw from the NPT, the parliament should pass a triple-urgency bill to bar the IAEA inspectors.”
According to sources, disagreements among ruling elites on how to manage the crisis have increased. Some demand a tougher stance, while others warn that such an approach could accelerate the regime’s collapse. Meanwhile, with the revival of Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign, some decision-makers in Tehran believe that “maintaining the status quo—no war, no deal, and continued negotiations—is the best option.”
UN sanctions further restrict Iran’s trade. These sanctions include severe restrictions on oil exports, the banking and financial sectors, an arms embargo, a ban on uranium enrichment and reprocessing, limits on missile activities, asset freezes, and travel bans on Iranian officials.
Public anger and economic pressure
Alongside these challenges, public dissatisfaction over economic problems is also increasing. The official inflation rate is announced at about 40%, but some estimates put it at more than 50%. Domestic media have reported a sharp rise in the prices of food, housing, and public services.
An elementary school teacher in Tehran told Reuters: “We are already struggling to make ends meet. More sanctions mean more economic pressure. How are we supposed to survive?”
The leaders of Iran’s regime fear that this public dissatisfaction could turn into widespread protests and further weaken their position both domestically and internationally. So far, the regime has managed to avoid complete economic collapse with the help of China, its main oil buyer, but with the return of UN sanctions, the future of Iran’s oil exports and foreign trade is facing even greater uncertainty.
