UPI: There may well be a new Middle East taking shape in the horizon, but it looks nothing like the one envisioned by President Bush. Instead of democracy being the order of the day, there is a real threat of Islamist theocracies, led by Iran, imposing their rule. United Press International
%20--%20There%20may%20well%20be%20a%20new%20Middle%20East%20taking%20shape%20in%20the%20horizon,%20but%20it%20looks%20nothing%20like%20the%20one%20envisioned%20by%20President%20Bush.%20Instead%20of%20democracy%20being%20the%20order%20of%20the%20day,%20there%20is%20a%20real%20threat%20of%20Islamist%20theocracies,%20led%20by%20Iran,%20imposing%20their%20rule.%20%0A%0AAfter%20keeping%20the%20West%20waiting%20for%20a%20reply,%20Iran%20let%20it%20be%20known%20Tuesday%20that%20it%20would%20continue%20its%20nuclear%20program%20despite%20threats%20of%20sanctions%20the%20United%20Nations%20could%20impose%20on%20the%20Islamic%20republic.%20%0A%0AIran%20rejected%20the%20Security%20Council%E2%80%99s%20demand%20that%20it%20suspend%20its%20uranium%20enrichment%20activities,%20vowing%20instead%20to%20push%20ahead%20with%20its%20nuclear%20program.%20%0A%0AIran%E2%80%99s%20Supreme%20Leader%20Ayatollah%20Ali%20Khamenei%20said:%20%E2%80%9CThe%20Islamic%20Republic%20of%20Iran%20has%20made%20its%20own%20decision%20and%20in%20the%20nuclear%20case,%20God-willing,%20with%20patience%20and%20power,%20will%20continue%20its%20path.%E2%80%9D%20%0A%0AThe%20announcement%20came%20in%20response%20to%20a%20July%2031%20Security%20Council%20resolution%20giving%20Iran%2030%20days%20to%20stop%20its%20nuclear%20activities%20or%20face%20possible%20economic%20and%20diplomatic%20sanctions.%20%0A%0AThe%20Security%20Council%20said%20it%20had%20approved%20Resolution%201696%20because%20it%20was%20%E2%80%9Cseriously%20concerned%20that%20the%20International%20Atomic%20Energy%20Agency%20%E2%80%94%20the%20IAEA%20%E2%80%94%20was%20still%20unable%20to%20provide%20assurances%20about%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20undeclared%20nuclear%20material%20and%20activities%20after%20more%20than%20three%20years%E2%80%A6.%E2%80%9D%20%0A%0AIranian%20officials%20instead%20called%20for%20negotiations%20and%20said%20they%20had%20a%20%E2%80%9Cnew%20formula%E2%80%9D%20to%20resolve%20the%20situation.%20However,%20since%20his%20election%20to%20the%20presidency%20last%20year,%20Mahmoud%20Ahmadinejad%20has%20continuously%20insisted%20on%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20%E2%80%9Cinalienable%E2%80%9D%20right%20to%20develop%20nuclear%20capabilities.%20Developing%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20nuclear%20program%20and%20maintaining%20an%20Iranian%20foothold%20in%20Iraq%20have%20been%20the%20two%20top%20priorities%20for%20Ahmadinejad.%20%0A%0AAt%20the%20same%20time,%20Ahmadinejad%20has%20ordered%20that%20production%20of%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20military%20arsenal,%20including%20missiles,%20fighter%20planes%20and%20torpedoes,%20be%20stepped%20up.%20And%20on%20Sunday,%20Iran%20tested%20surface-to-surface%20missiles%20with%20a%20range%20of%20up%20to%20155%20miles.%20%0A%0AThe%20threat%20of%20sanctions%20does%20not%20seem%20to%20deter%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20ruling%20mullahs,%20who%20believe%20they%20have%20an%20ace%20or%20two%20up%20their%20tunics.%20Those%20come%20in%20the%20form%20of%20Hezbollah,%20Hamas,%20Islamic%20Jihad%20and%20Syria,%20who%20Raymond%20Tanter,%20a%20founding%20member%20of%20the%20Iran%20Policy%20Committee,%20describes%20as%20%E2%80%9Cthe%20junior%20varsity%20member%20sitting%20on%20the%20bench.%E2%80%9D%20%0A%0AHere%E2%80%99s%20how%20one%20scenario%20might%20play%20itself%20out:%20the%20Western%20powers,%20that%20is%20the%20United%20States,%20the%20European%20Union%20and%20Israel,%20want%20to%20see%20the%20deployment%20of%20a%20multinational%20force%20in%20the%20area%20of%20south%20Lebanon%20between%20the%20Litany%20River%20and%20Israel%E2%80%99s%20northern%20frontier.%20This%20is%20what%20has%20been%20called%20for%20in%20the%20United%20Nations%20Security%20Council%20Resolution%201701,%20which%20was%20unanimously%20approved%20earlier%20this%20month.%20%0A%0AResolution%201701%20calls%20for%20the%20deployment%20of%20some%2015,000%20international%20troops%20to%20back-up%2015,000%20Lebanese%20army%20soldiers,%20some%20of%20whom%20have%20already%20deployed%20in%20parts%20of%20south%20Lebanon.%20But%20now%20Resolution%201701,%20along%20with%20any%20force%20%E2%80%94%20foreign%20or%20Lebanese%20%E2%80%93%20will%20find%20itself%20hostage%20to%20the%20new%20Islamist%20alliance%20composed%20of%20Iran,%20Hezbollah,%20Hamas,%20Islamic%20Jihad%20and%20Syria.%20So,%20too,%20will%20the%20130,000%20American%20troops%20in%20Iraq.%20%0A%0AThis,%20says%20Tanter,%20is%20the%20new%20reality%20in%20the%20Middle%20East,%20one%20that%20changes%20the%20conflict%20as%20we%20know%20it.%20%0A%0A%E2%80%9CFor%20all%20intents%20and%20purposes%20the%20Arab-Israeli%20conflict%20is%20over,%E2%80%9D%20says%20Tanter.%20The%20dispute%20between%20secular%20Arabs%20and%20Israel%20is%20one%20that%20can%20eventually%20be%20resolved.%20It%20revolves%20around%20the%20question%20of%20final%20borders,%20the%20right%20of%20return%20of%20Palestinian%20refugees,%20(or%20some%20form%20of%20compensation%20instead)%20and%20the%20final%20status%20of%20Jerusalem.%20Whereas%20the%20dispute%20between%20the%20Islamists%20and%20Israel,%20points%20out%20Tanter,%20is%20a%20fight%20to%20the%20finish.%20If%20current%20trends%20continue,%20meaning%20that%20the%20mullahs%20remain%20in%20power%20in%20Iran,%20Tanter%20sees%20a%20three-phase%20Iranian%20plan%20playing%20itself%20out.%20%0A%0APhase%20one%20was%20playing%20for%20time%20so%20that%20Iran%20could%20build%20and%20increase%20the%20number%20of%20centrifuge%20machines%20needed%20to%20speed%20up%20its%20nuclear%20program.%20%E2%80%9CWe%20are%20already%20there,%E2%80%9D%20Tanter%20told%20United%20Press%20International.%20%E2%80%9CThis%20is%20what%20links%20Iran%E2%80%99s%20nuclear%20policy%20with%20its%20terror%20strategy,%E2%80%9D%20said%20Tanter.%20%0A%0APhase%20two%20comes%20into%20effect%20if%20the%20United%20States%20and%20the%20West%20impose%20sanctions%20on%20Iran.%20That%E2%80%99s%20when%20Iran%20will%20be%20in%20a%20position%20through%20its%20proxy%20militias%20to%20hold%20hostage,%20not%20only%20the%20U.N.%20troops%20in%20south%20Lebanon,%20but%20also%20the%20Lebanese%20army%20and%20the%20entire%20peace%20initiative%20launched%20by%201701.%20%0A%0APhase%20three%20gets%20moving%20if%20political%20tension%20is%20allowed%20to%20escalate.%20In%20this%20case,%20says%20Tanter,%20we%20are%20likely%20to%20see%20a%20repeat%20performance%20of%20what%20has%20been%20a%20dress%20rehearsal%20during%20the%2034-day%20war%20between%20Hezbollah%20and%20Israel%20this%20past%20month.%20Except%20this%20time%20it%20will%20be%20on%20a%20wider%20scale,%20possibly%20along%20the%20sort%20of%20exchanges%20that%20took%20place%20between%20Baghdad%20and%20Tehran%20during%20the%20Iraq-Iran%20war.%20This%20time%20the%20rockets%20will%20be%20flying%20not%20only%20from%20the%20north,%20but%20from%20the%20east%20as%20well.%20%0A%0A%E2%80%9CNow%20that%E2%80%99s%20the%20worst%20case%20scenario,%E2%80%9D%20says%20Tanter,%20who%20with%20his%20Iran%20Policy%20Committee%20has%20been%20petitioning%20the%20U.S.%20government%20to%20get%20the%20Mujahedeen-E-Khalq%20%E2%80%94%20the%20MeK%20%E2%80%94%20off%20the%20State%20Department%E2%80%99s%20terrorist%20list.%20The%20IPC%20believes%20legitimizing%20the%20MeK%20will%20rattle%20the%20saber%20of%20regime%20change%20over%20Tehran%E2%80%99s%20head%20enough%20to%20send%20a%20stern%20message%20to%20Tehran.%20%0A%0AIt%20remains%20to%20be%20seen%20if%20that%20will%20work.%20For%20the%20moment,%20it%20seems%20as%20though%20Tehran%20is%20holding%20more%20aces.%20</p></img>%0A</div></div><div%20class=)
