On the eighth day of nationwide protests in Iran, and despite the heavy security presence on the streets of Tehran and other cities that have witnessed demonstrations over the past week, the strike by bazaar merchants is continuing.
In a video published on Sunday, January 4, from in front of Tehran’s Alaeddin Shopping Center, security agents are seen clashing with shopkeepers and firing tear gas at them. A heavy security atmosphere also prevails in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, where agents of the Iranian regime and other repressive forces have been deployed in the cloth sellers’ section and several other parts of the bazaar, attempting through threats and intimidation to force merchants to reopen their shops.
In the largest wave of anti-government protests in Iran in the past three years—sparked by worsening economic conditions and rising living costs, during which several people have been killed and hundreds arrested by the Iranian regime—U.S. President Donald Trump stated that if protesters in Iran are fired upon, the United States would intervene to save them.
The Iranian regime’s reaction was highly frantic. Ali Larijani, the secretary of the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, stressed that Donald Trump must know that any U.S. intervention in this “internal matter” would lead to instability across the entire region and undermine Washington’s interests. At the same time, Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to the regime’s supreme leader, warned that Iran’s national security is a “red line” and that any interfering hand targeting it under false pretexts would be cut off with a regret-inducing response before achieving its goal.
In such an atmosphere, the question arises as to where current developments are heading and what scenarios lie ahead for Iran.
This is not the first time that the people of Iran have expressed their dissatisfaction with the ruling regime. Severe economic pressures on the one hand, and the Iranian regime’s costly conflicts and interventions in regional cases such as Lebanon, Yemen, and Gaza on the other, have led to sanctions and international isolation, imposing heavy consequences on the daily lives of Iranians.
The Iranian regime’s nuclear bomb project has consumed hundreds of billions of dollars from national resources over the past years.
Although the current protests have taken on a new form, they remain aligned with previous demonstrations that called for freedom, broader political participation, improved economic conditions, and an end to the rule of the mullahs. To confront protest movements, the Iranian regime resorts to its usual approach: repression, executions, and violent and deadly behavior toward protesters.
This is the first wave of protests following the recent war between the regime and Israel—a war that resulted in extensive damage, targeted assassinations, and a wave of public outrage. Today’s protests have emerged amid increasing international pressure on the regime due to its terrorist intervention in the region.
Today, the Iranian regime is in an extremely critical and fragile position; it is economically and diplomatically besieged, and its relations not only with regional countries but also with a wide range of international actors are marked by tension. Attacks on vessels, their seizure, and what the West calls “destabilizing maritime actions” have intensified this isolation.
In this context, the U.S. warning signals entry into a new phase that no longer allows the regime to intervene freely wherever it wishes or to continue suppressing domestic protests without cost while considering itself the region’s unchallenged power.
The global community’s stance on Tehran’s missile program, nuclear file, and network of proxy forces in the region cannot be separated from the recent wave of protests. While previous protest movements were also suppressed through harsh measures, the Iranian regime officials’ recent reaction to the current demonstrations shows that Tehran is attempting to shift the balance back in its favor by relying on counter-pressure tools. Experience has shown that the Iranian regime will never abandon the repression of its people, interference in regional countries’ affairs, and the export of terrorism.
The regime has entered a phase of serious instability and inability to restore balance. This situation is unfolding within the framework of a convergence of regional and international interests that are gradually expanding, forcing the Iranian regime to take them into account, as the fate of such systems is clear to all.
The regime of Bashar al-Assad, contrary to public perception, collapsed in a short period, even though until weeks before its fall many believed the Damascus regime was invincible. No dictatorial regime—whether religious or military—can ultimately withstand the will of its own people.
History has shown that people will not return to any form of dictatorship, whether monarchical or religious.
The regime is on a downward path toward collapse, and Iran is gradually preparing itself for a new chapter. Change may not happen overnight, but current developments show that the people of Iran are not alone.
As a result, it can be said that the Iranian regime has entered a period akin to agony—one that will inevitably lead to structural transformations, dismantle the ideological foundations and overall structure of the ruling system, and push Iran toward democracy.
