Ali Mahmoudian, head of the Iranian regime’s Alternative Fuels Association, stated that there is a 25-million-liter gap between gasoline production and consumption in the country, adding that 10 million liters of gasoline are smuggled out of Iran daily. Previously, Mousa Ghaninejad, an economist, had estimated that daily gasoline smuggling ranged between 20 and 50 million liters.
On November 20, the head of the Alternative Fuels Association stated at a press conference that there is currently a 25-million-liter gap between gasoline production and consumption, with daily consumption standing at 135 million liters while production is only 110 million liters.
Mahmoudian pointed out that over the past 50 years, gasoline consumption has grown by 8% annually and added, “If this trend continues, daily consumption will reach 250 million liters by 2029.”
Mahmoudian’s remarks come as, on November 8, Naser Ashouri, Secretary-General of the Employer Association of the Refining Industry, had stated that average daily gasoline consumption in the country had reached 112 million liters, while production was between 98 and 104 million liters, resulting in a daily shortage of 8 to 14 million liters.
Conflicting statistics regarding fuel consumption, production, and smuggling have increased in recent months. At the same press conference, Mahmoudian stated that 10 million liters of gasoline and 8 million liters of diesel are smuggled out of the country daily.
The figure he announced is half of the lowest previous estimates.
For years, the dominant narrative regarding gasoline smuggling in Iran has been a figure of 20 million liters daily. This 20 million liters figure has been repeatedly cited by experts and media outlets for at least the past five years until, in September 2024, Ghaninejad presented new data.
Referring to daily gasoline distribution statistics of 120 million liters in the country, he stated, “Of this amount, only 70 million liters are actually consumed, and the rest is smuggled out of the country.”
In recent years, fuel smuggling has consistently been one of the reasons cited by officials for raising gasoline prices.
Past experiences with gasoline price hikes show that an increase in the frequency of news and conflicting statements about fuel consumption and smuggling often precedes price increases.
In November 2019, following a gasoline price hike, an uprising broke out in Iran that quickly turned into nationwide protests calling for the overthrow of the regime. The Iranian regime brutally killed over 1,500 people during this uprising.
In mid-October, coinciding with the submission of the 2025 budget bill to the parliament, members of parliament and those close to the government of Masoud Pezeshkian strongly denied any plans to increase gasoline prices.
However, on November 14, Ali Rabiei, Pezeshkian’s Social Affairs Advisor, stated, “We are compelled to make decisions regarding the gasoline issue.”
He said, “Decision-making on the gasoline issue is an unavoidable necessity. If the issue of gasoline does not become a social matter, it will turn into a massive social crisis.”
Two days earlier, on November 18, Fatemeh Mohajerani, the government spokesperson, stated that “Expert discussions on energy carrier prices are ongoing within the government,” and emphasized, “The government’s plan is to prepare public opinion for possible decisions regarding energy carriers.”
