Data from tanker tracking companies indicate that Iran’s oil exports, after a sharp decline in January, rebounded by “50 percent” last month.
The company “TankerTrackers” reported on Wednesday, March 5, that Iran’s oil exports grew by 50 percent last month compared to January.
The report did not specify the volume of Iran’s oil exports, but data from the commodity intelligence company Kpler, which also provides tanker tracking services, indicates that Iran loaded and exported 1.74 million barrels per day of oil to Chinese markets last month.
At the same time, Reuters reported that Iran’s oil production increased by 80,000 barrels per day last month.
Negative Record in Iran’s Oil Exports; Consequences of Sanctions
While the increase in Iran’s oil shipments to China is notable, especially considering the revival of the Trump administration’s maximum pressure policy, what is more important is the volume of oil that is ultimately discharged in China.
According to Kpler data, the volume of Iranian oil discharged in China was 692,000 barrels in January, which increased to 771,000 barrels last month.
Before the new round of tanker sanctions imposed by Joe Biden’s administration last October—continuing the measures implemented under Donald Trump—Iran used to discharge 1.5 million barrels of oil per day at Chinese ports.
Thus, despite the recovery in loading volumes, Iran’s oil discharge in China has sharply declined, leading to a massive accumulation of unsold Iranian oil reserves.
Kpler data shows that the volume of unsold Iranian oil floating at sea has increased nearly sevenfold in recent months, surpassing 35 million barrels.
Logistics crisis
Since October last year, when Iran carried out its second missile attack on Israel, the United States has sanctioned more than 60 tankers carrying Iranian oil. At the same time, China has banned sanctioned tankers from entering Shandong port—Iran’s largest oil-receiving terminal—since January.
In total, more than 500 tankers, with a combined capacity of 450 million barrels, are engaged in covert transportation of Iranian oil—commonly referred to as the “ghost fleet.”
So far, approximately 45 percent of this fleet’s capacity has been sanctioned. However, many tankers, including 47 large vessels in the Iranian regime’s ghost fleet, have yet to be targeted by U.S. sanctions.
TankerTrackers has also noted this issue, stating that the U.S. has sanctioned 234 out of 522 ghost fleet tankers, equivalent to 45 percent of the vessels involved in smuggling Iranian oil.
The sanctioning of more than 60 tankers in recent months—one-third of which are ultra-large crude carriers (ULCCs) with a capacity of 2 million barrels each—has disrupted the Iranian regime’s oil discharge operations in Chinese ports.
Some tankers from the so-called “ghost fleet” have also abandoned the Iranian regime’s market due to increasing U.S. pressure and the rising freight rates for transporting Russian oil, shifting their operations toward Russian crude shipments.
