The postponement of the fourth round of nuclear talks between the Iranian regime and the United States, along with the impact of this news, led to a plunge in the Tehran Stock Exchange index and a rise in the dollar-to-rial exchange rate. Some analysts suggest the talks may have “failed” rather than merely been “postponed.”
The delay of the fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the regime and the United States and the resulting market reaction at the start of the trading week caused a sharp decline in the Tehran Stock Exchange index and an increase in the dollar rate.
According to domestic Iranian media, the price of one US dollar in Tehran’s unofficial currency market on Saturday, May 3, rose to around 870,000 rials — a roughly 5% increase compared to the previous week. In addition, the Tehran Stock Exchange index dropped by 61,116 points on Saturday, ending in the red once again.
In this context, the state-run ISNA news agency reported that on the first business day of the week in Iran, only 82 stocks closed in the green while 269 stocks ended in the red, and the overall market value dropped by approximately 2%.
According to experts, while the currency and gold markets had shown a declining trend over the past 18 trading days due to the nuclear negotiations, the Tehran Stock Exchange had only experienced four days of losses during that period, with its overall value increasing on the other days.
The Iranian regime and the United States had held three rounds of nuclear negotiations, but the fourth round — scheduled for Saturday, May 3 — was postponed due to “logistical and technical reasons,” according to Oman, the host of the talks.
Additionally, Jean-Noël Barrot, the French foreign minister, stated on May 1 that the planned talks between representatives of the regime and the three European countries — Germany, the United Kingdom, and France — would also not take place.
Amid speculation over the reasons for the “postponement” of the nuclear negotiations between the Iranian regime and the United States, some analysts are suggesting that what has occurred may be a “failure” of the talks rather than just a “delay.”
Amid the stock market plunge and rising dollar rate following the postponement of nuclear negotiations, the state-run Donya-ye Eqtesad newspaper reported that on Saturday, May 3, the Tehran Stock Exchange experienced “one of its toughest trading days of the year.”
According to the state-run Donya-ye Eqtesad, the main index of the Tehran Stock Exchange dropped sharply by 1.95% on Saturday, “retreating to the 3,116,000 level.”
Donya-ye Eqtesad also reported that during Saturday’s stock market session, the “unprecedented outflow of retail investor funds from the market” left many economic actors disturbed and worried. According to the report, around 40 trillion rials (approximately $46 million) of individual investors’ money left the market on Saturday. This amount “not only broke a two-year record but also reflects the high level of distrust among individual investors.”
In its report, Donya-ye Eqtesad attributed this situation to “investors’ concerns over the outlook of the negotiations” on one hand, and to the “weak demand side and general distrust toward the market trend” on the other.
At the same time, some economic experts are forecasting “a new wave of capital outflow and index decline.”
Market Concerns Amid Uncertainty in Nuclear Talks
The ambiguity surrounding the course of nuclear negotiations between Tehran and Washington has deepened, as it appears that the U.S. has tied the issue of Iran’s ballistic missiles to the talks.
Meanwhile, the Iranian regime has consistently declared its missile program a “red line” and has refused to negotiate on the matter.
According to experts, the sequence of recent developments — including U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of secondary sanctions on Iran’s oil and petrochemical sectors, the U.S. Secretary of State’s remarks calling for a halt to Iran’s uranium enrichment, the American Defense Secretary’s stern warning to Iran over its support for the Houthis, the postponement of the fourth round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S., and the cancellation of the planned negotiations between Iran’s regime and Germany, the United Kingdom, and France — all reinforce the suspicion that the nuclear talks between Iran and the United States may be headed toward failure.
