The livelihoods of workers and retirees have faced unprecedented challenges in recent months. Point-to-point inflation has reached 96%, and it is projected to approach three digits for the first time in the country’s history. In this environment, implementing a wage increase for workers during the second half of the Iranian year faces serious obstacles. At the same time, employers are struggling with what is described as an economic war, including damage to production units and workforce reductions, while delays by the Social Security Organization in paying retirees’ pensions have added to the pressure. The value of the 10 million-rial government shopping voucher has also fallen to one-third of its original purchasing power because of runaway inflation, and its proposed increase has not yet been implemented. Meanwhile, the latest estimate of the workers’ minimum livelihood basket stands at 429 million rials (approximately $227), while the base monthly wage for a worker with two children is around 250 million rials (approximately $132).
Iran’s Statistical Center: Point-To-Point Inflation in July Reached Nearly 88%
Hamid Haj Esmaili, a labor market expert, told the state-run Jahan-e Sanat newspaper that implementing the wage increase for workers during the second half of the Iranian year (September 23, 2026, to March 22, 2027) would be a very difficult and complex issue. Although the measure had been approved by the Supreme Labor Council at the end of the previous Iranian year, he said that the implementation of wage increases at the end of the year on March 21, 2026, had already encountered numerous problems. On one hand, employers had been affected by the war, with some production units damaged and others forced to lay off workers. Therefore, in order to prevent further layoffs, employers were permitted to implement wage increases only through mutual agreement between workers and employers.
He added: “On the other hand, the Social Security Organization delayed pension payments to retirees. Under such circumstances, implementing wage increases during the second half of the year will face many challenges, and it may not be feasible under the current conditions.”
Three-Digit Inflation Is Approaching
Responding to a question about inflation over the past four months and its impact on workers’ living standards, the labor market expert said: “Inflation is approaching three digits, and this will have negative consequences for workers and retirees. By the end of the previous Iranian year on March 22, 2026, inflation had reached 60%. It has now risen to 96% on a point-to-point basis and is approaching three digits.”
It is noteworthy that, according to the Statistical Center of Iran, the Iranian regime’s official statistics agency, inflation in rural areas reached 100% in July.
Calculated Livelihood Basket Reaches 429 Million Rials
According to the state-run ILNA news agency, Mohsen Bagheri, a workers’ representative on the Supreme Labor Council and head of the Wage Committee of the High Council of Islamic Labor Councils, discussed the latest calculation of the workers’ livelihood basket. Bagheri said that preliminary estimates indicate that food and beverage costs within the livelihood basket have increased significantly compared to the past and may have risen by approximately two to three times. However, he said that precise calculations will be completed after the Statistical Center of Iran publishes its official data. He added that if the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare establishes the Wage Committee, the livelihood basket calculations will be reviewed and finalized through tripartite negotiations involving representatives of the government, workers, and employers.
He emphasized that if the Labor Ministry does not hold these meetings, the workers’ group will independently calculate the livelihood basket based on the official statistics of the Statistical Center of Iran and announce its findings.
Regarding the latest estimated value of the livelihood basket, Bagheri said that the workers’ group’s most recent estimate, based on January 2026 inflation, stood at 429 million rials.
He further referred to discussions about the impact of exchange rate changes on living costs and said that during wage negotiations, the workers’ representatives believed the effects of the currency’s depreciation would gradually appear in consumer expenses. For that reason, they proposed postponing the final review of the livelihood basket until those effects became clear so that additional wage benefits could also be increased. Bagheri added that the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance had argued that its exchange rate policies would reduce inflation beginning in February. However, according to him, that prediction did not materialize, and by the end of June the effects of the exchange rate increase had become fully visible in the market, pushing inflation for food and beverages to around 140%.
Regarding a new estimate for the livelihood basket, Bagheri said that no precise calculations have yet been completed. He added that although a significant increase in food costs is expected, announcing any exact figure without expert calculations would not be accurate.
The Statistical Center of Iran announced that point-to-point inflation reached 87.9% in July 2026, while annual inflation stood at 66%.
The annual inflation rate also indicates that the average prices of goods and services during the 12 months ending in July 2026 were 66% higher than during the corresponding previous period.
In July 2026, rural households experienced the highest inflationary pressure compared with the national average. Point-to-point inflation in rural areas reached 106.9%, while monthly inflation was recorded at 3.4%.
