Iran’s economic experts and analysts who have access to state-run media are speaking about the failures, bitterness, and inaccuracies that plague a nation in its economy, and looking for the ‘one’ major problem, each with its own perspective and expertise.
Some of them say the high costs are the main problem and others see the culprit for all the problems to be the government’s deception, but they are of course forced to confess about the corruption in Iran’s economic system and warn about the social consequences of this situation.
The head of the state-affiliated Iranian Social Welfare Association believes: “The more we promise people and delay the solution of fundamental problems, the higher the intensity of the social explosion.” (State-run daily Arman, April 3, 2021)
He adds: “As a result, the recent rise in prices has made the society nervous and the society is on the verge of a population explosion. If this does not happen today, it will undoubtedly happen in the near future. People hate a government that cannot manage their affairs.” (State-run daily Arman, April 3, 2021)
The government economist says that the weakness and sickness of the soul of the economy is an undoubtable reality. Iran’s economy has reached dangerous borders, and its sickness is reaching an incurable situation. He warns:
“Iran’s economy, for whatever reason it has become weakened and for whatever reason it is entangled in its work, its consequences have become more destructive every day, and especially put the times of the citizens in the worst conditions. Iran’s economy needs to be relieved, and this patient must be treated as soon as possible so that citizens do not die.” (Jahan-e-Sanat, April 3, 2021)
On the other hand, there are many experts who see that ‘one’ main problem in the ‘swamp of recession’ and especially show it in the capital market and describe the situation of the capital market these days as ‘absolute recession’.
“An examination of the capital market transactions in the new year shows that during the last four working days of last week, more than 800 billion tomans of real money has left the market. Thus, the process of withdrawing money from the market, which began last year, continues.” (Jahan-e-Sanat, April 3, 2021)
Another government economist has a different view, linking that ‘problem’ to the fate of the ‘JCPOA’ (2015 Iran nuclear deal) and believes that “as long as the fate of the JCPOA is not determined, the market is in uncertainty and ambiguity.”
Another government expert examining the causes of the failure of the government says that it is not only mismanagement that can last for years, but also the ‘main problem’ is the mislead of the production support.
“It has been almost half a century that the country’s economic policy-making, despite the change in political structure and change of governments, has been done on the wrong path, and as a result, the efforts of the relevant authorities have failed, and de-production has replaced productivism.” (Jahan-e-Sanat, April 3, 2021)
Another analyst says that under the influence of US President Joe Biden and more oil sales in the fall, we had economic growth of 0.8 percent (!) While economic growth in the first nine months of 2020 was negative 1.2 percent, then he speaks about the dependence of Iran’s government to the oil, that the slightest change in the international situation could change its price and cause problems for the Iranian economy.
Then he added to it that, “Economic growth has been negative in recent years. In other words, since 2017, the size of Iran’s economy has been steadily shrinking.” (Eghtesad News, April 2, 2021)
Finally, these government experts suggest to the government sarcastically: “In such circumstances, no complex policy advice is needed for 2021. Just do not do anything! Let the economy overcome fluctuations on a smaller scale on its own. Let there be no policy in 2021! It certainly costs less for the economy, the people and, of course, the policymakers themselves.” (Donya-e-Eghtesad, April 3, 2021)