After concerns about Israel attacking Iran’s energy facilities subsided, Iran’s stock index showed consecutive growth, while global oil prices fell by 6%. However, the dollar’s exchange rate against the rial has remained at a high level.
Following Iran’s large-scale missile attack on Israel on October 1, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in Iran’s open market quickly surged from 600,000 rials to 690,000 rials.
Prior to Israel’s attack, there were concerns about Iran’s energy and nuclear infrastructure being targeted. However, after Israel’s limited military strikes, the dollar’s rate briefly dropped to 657,500 rials but quickly reversed and began rising again over the past two days.
On Monday evening, October 28, the dollar was trading at 675,500 rials.
Massoud Pezeshkian’s administration and the Central Bank have not explained why, despite the diminished threat of potential attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, the dollar exchange rate continues to climb.
Meanwhile, on Monday, a spokesperson for the regime’s Plan and Budget Organization claimed that essential goods will continue to be imported at a rate of 285,000 rials per dollar next year.
This claim was made despite the fact that the 2025 budget bill explicitly states that the exchange rate for essential goods will gradually increase compared to 2024 in line with the inflation rate.
Simply put, given this year’s 33% inflation rate and the forecast of over 30% inflation for next year (according to official regime statistics, though, the real rate is higher), the preferential dollar rate in 2025 will be at least 370,000 rials.
Despite the dollar’s resilience in Iran’s currency market, the Tehran stock exchange index, which had declined after Iran’s missile strikes on Israel, has surged by 80,000 points over the past three days, reaching 2,050,000 points. However, this is still 80,000 points below its level on the day before Iran’s October 1 missile attack on Israel.
On Monday, the first trading day in global oil markets, oil prices dropped by 6%, with the Brent Crude index trading below $72, exactly matching its price on the day before Iran’s missile attack on Israel.
