Official statistics in Iran, amid severe air pollution and energy shortages, indicate a surge in the export of relatively clean fuels and a sharp increase in domestic consumption of highly polluting fuel oil (“mazut”).
An official document from Iran’s Ministry of Petroleum reveals that mazut consumption in the country has surged by 52% over seven months, with a total of more than 5.5 billion liters consumed during this period.
It is not precisely clear how mazut consumption has been since October 22, 2024, but this fuel—considered the most polluting fossil fuel—is used at twice the rate in colder months due to gas shortages.
More importantly, according to the document, the government has significantly increased mazut consumption while simultaneously ramping up exports of cleaner fuels such as natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and kerosene, leading to a reduction in their domestic use.
Although the Iranian regime has not released any official data on gas exports—considered the cleanest fossil fuel—official statistics from Turkey indicate that its gas imports from Iran jumped by approximately 47% in the first ten months of 2024, reaching 5.8 billion cubic meters.
This volume of gas is equivalent to the total mazut consumption in Iran between March 20 and October 22, 2024.
Iran exports a similar amount of natural gas to Iraq as it does to Turkey, though no recent official statistics have been released on this matter.
Data from the Ministry of Petroleum’s document shows that, over the mentioned seven-month period, the production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Iranian refineries increased by 19%, while its domestic distribution dropped by 15%.
Thus, the export of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) produced by Iran’s refineries increased by 68% between March 20 and October 22.
It is unclear what the exact status of LPG production in Iran’s gas refineries is, but the latest customs data shows that in the first nine months of this year, Iran exported $6 billion worth of LPG, a 122% increase compared to the same period last year.
International economic institutions estimate Iran’s annual LPG exports to be over 10 million tons, and if these exports were halted, there would be no need for the country to rely on the highly polluting mazut fuel.
The Ministry of Petroleum’s document also indicates that in the first seven months of this year, the government reduced domestic kerosene consumption by 13% while nearly doubling its exports.
However, the situation with mazut is entirely different, as the government has chosen to increase its use to compensate for the country’s energy shortages.
Data from the Ministry of Petroleum shows that not only has mazut consumption from Iran’s oil refineries increased by 52%, but approximately 100 million liters from stored reserves have also been withdrawn and used by industries and power plants between March 20 and October 22.
A crucial point is that mazut produced by Iran’s refineries contains 3.5% sulfur, which is seven times the international standard for ship fuel used in open waters.
Officials in the government of Masoud Pezeshkian claim that the country’s gasoline production has seen a significant increase in recent months. The Ministry of Petroleum’s data confirms this, but most of the increase is due to the production of substandard gasoline, while the production of Euro 4 and Euro 5 standard gasoline has shown only minimal growth.
According to the document, Iran’s refinery-produced base gasoline increased by approximately 13% in October 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, reaching 107 million liters per day.
By adding a large volume of additives and non-standard chemicals, including petrochemical substances, to base gasoline, the government distributed 125 million liters of gasoline daily in October 2024, which roughly matches domestic consumption levels.
Over the past two years, Iran has faced a gasoline shortage, averaging a daily deficit of six million liters between March 20 and October 22, 2024, which has been covered through imports.
