Following a roughly 28% increase in the price of raw milk in Iran, media outlets predict a sharp 42% rise in dairy product prices in the coming days.
In recent days, Iran’s Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Pricing Council officially announced that the price of one kilogram of raw milk at the farmgate has increased from 180,000 rials (approximately $0.21) to 230,000 rials (approximately $0.27).
The state-run Hamshahri newspaper reported on Monday, May 19, that in September 2024, a 20% increase in raw milk prices had led to a 30% rise in the prices of regulated products such as cheese, yogurt, and pasteurized milk sold in bottles and bags.
Soaring Dairy Exports Amid Plummeting Domestic Consumption in Iran
This surge indicated that each percentage increase in raw milk price led to an average 1.4% rise in dairy product prices, whereas Iran’s Dairy Industry Association had claimed the impact should be only 0.7%.
This price hike comes amid years of inflation in Iran that have pushed a growing number of people into poverty.
The official monthly wage for Iranian workers is, at best, around $180, while the cost of a basic household living basket is estimated to be nearly three times that amount.
Economic experts say that approximately one-third of Iran’s population cannot meet their basic needs.
How Much Will Dairy Products Increase?
Referring to past trends, Hamshahri estimated that a similar price surge in dairy products is expected this year.
According to reports, the dairy industry appears to have reached a consensus on implementing a 42% increase in dairy product prices.
Hamshahri noted that amid Iran’s inflationary spiral, consumers cannot withstand higher dairy prices, yet dairy farmers also view the guaranteed price of 230,000 rials per kilogram of raw milk as “unfair and a serious threat to the survival of the country’s livestock industry.”
Sharp Rise in Food Prices in Iran; Meat and Rice Lead the Surge
In recent years, staple food items consumed by families have experienced some of the highest inflation rates.
In November 2024, the Research Center of Iran’s Chamber of Commerce reported that by the end of 2021, around 32 million people in the country were living below the poverty line (specifically food poverty), and warned that due to several years of intense inflation, this trend is rapidly expanding.
