Amid rising demand in China, Iran’s oil exports to the country hit a new record in June. According to a Reuters report, orders for oil shipments—particularly from China’s independent refineries—saw a significant increase.
According to data from the maritime tracking firm Vortexa, from June 1 to June 20, 2025, China imported more than 1.8 million barrels of Iranian crude oil per day on average.
Data analytics company Kpler also reported that Iranian crude oil and condensate exports to China reached 1.46 million barrels per day as of June 27, a sharp increase from approximately one million barrels per day in May.
On June 25, U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking at the close of the NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, stated that the United States does not intend to seize Iran’s oil resources. He added that while maximum pressure on the regime will continue, he does not aim to halt Iran’s oil exports.
Impact of Delivery Delays and Political Signals
The surge in China’s imports of Iranian oil in June largely reflects the export spike from Iran during May.
In May, Iran’s oil loadings reached the rare level of 1.83 million barrels per day.
Given that it typically takes several weeks for Iranian oil to reach China, the bulk of those shipments were delivered in June.
Most of Iran’s oil is purchased by small refineries in northeastern China known as “teapots.”
These refineries rely on cheap oil for profitability and sell their products domestically in local currency, shielding them from secondary sanctions.
Kpler had previously reported that as U.S. pressure intensified, China refrained from placing new orders for Iranian crude oil, and even small private refineries stopped making new purchases.
The U.S. Sanctions Iranian Oil Transport, Purchase, And Processing Network
Some analysts believe the rise in Iran’s oil exports to China may reflect market expectations of potential easing of U.S. sanctions by the Trump administration.
Nevertheless, all official U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil remain in place, and no formal changes have been announced.
Energy analysts say the real market impact of these statements may be limited, as Iran’s oil production and export capacity continues to face structural constraints.
High Exports, Limited Growth: Warning in Confidential Oil Ministry Report
Despite the recent export surge, serious doubts remain about Iran’s ability to sustain high levels of oil exports.
According to a confidential report from Iran’s Oil Ministry, even if sanctions are completely lifted, Iran’s daily export capacity will remain severely limited.
The report, citing Kpler data, states that in the first half of 2025, Iran exported an average of 1.4 million barrels per day of crude and condensate to China—12% less than the same period last year.
According to the report, aging oil fields, rising domestic consumption, and lack of investment are among the main obstacles to expanding Iran’s export capacity.
Meanwhile, Iran’s floating oil storage—unsold shipments held on tankers at sea—has reached around 40 million barrels, signaling the regime’s difficulty in offloading its stockpiles.
