The state-run daily SAMT News published a report on the dire situation of Iran’s economy, writing that “all engines of economic growth” in the country have stopped working.
On Monday, September 22, the newspaper wrote: “Economic growth requires conditions such as a suitable business environment, proper economic governance, access to technology, financing, etc., each of which can be likened to an engine driving this indicator; but the issue is that at present, none of these engines are operating.”
According to this report, in the Seventh Development Plan, achieving 8% economic growth has been set as one of the key goals, but this target will not be attainable without a series of fundamental reforms.
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SAMT News listed “increasing domestic and foreign investment,” “improving productivity in production sectors,” and “reforming the budget structure” as essential prerequisites for Iran’s economic growth, warning that “without addressing energy imbalances, reforming the banking system, and reducing policy risks,” this goal will not be achievable.
In recent weeks, runaway inflation, pressure on industries, and the rising exchange rates of foreign currencies have increased concerns about the worsening state of Iran’s economy—a trend that has intensified following the activation of the “snapback mechanism” and the possibility of harsher international sanctions.
On August 27, Iran’s Chamber of Commerce published a report assessing the economic outlook of the country until the end of 2025, presenting three scenarios: optimistic, probable, and pessimistic.
In the pessimistic scenario, the exchange rate is projected to soar to 1.65 million rials per US dollar (currently about 1.05 million rials per US dollar), and inflation would rise to 90%. Moreover, in all scenarios, Iran’s economic growth is forecasted to be negative.
“Negative economic growth is itself an achievement”
Continuing its report, SAMT News quoted economist Vahid Shaghaghi-Shahri, who said that the “engines of economic growth” in Iran are working in reverse. It wrote that under such conditions, achieving 8% growth—or even less—is not only out of reach, but “avoiding negative growth should itself be considered an achievement.”
Shaghaghi-Shahri considered the housing sector as one of the indicators of economic growth, stating that in recent years this sector has faced “complete stagnation” due to factors such as political instability, declining purchasing power, water shortages, land subsidence, and population decline.
He added that the oil sector has also been facing unfavorable conditions due to sanctions and falling prices and has been unable to play its “driving” role.
Earlier, in May, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had predicted Iran’s economic growth in 2025 to be nearly zero, with inflation at 43.3%.
In another part of his interview with SAMT News, Shaghaghi-Shahri listed the dominance of quasi-state actors and the weakness of the private sector, the challenge of securing around $200 billion annually to achieve 8% growth, the intensification of sanctions, and the rise in investment risks as among the main obstacles facing Iran’s economy.
The economist added: “With the current trend, it does not seem that we will have growth above 1% this year, and if there is no movement to activate the engines of economic growth, negative growth in the years 2026 and 2027 is not out of the question.”
