On Sunday, October 19, The Washington Times reported that while Western powers are celebrating the reinstatement of U.N. sanctions against Tehran, analysts warn that without a coordinated, multilateral pressure campaign, the Iranian regime could evade the actual enforcement of these penalties.
Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—signatories to the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)—triggered the 30-day “snapback” mechanism in a letter to the U.N. Security Council on August 28 to restore the organization’s sanctions.
The sanctions include an arms embargo, diplomatic travel restrictions, asset freezes, and extensive limitations on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iranian Regime Puts Iran’s Oil on Sale in China with Bigger Discounts
The Washington Times wrote that experts say these sanctions will likely have little impact on Iran’s oil sales, the regime’s main source of revenue. China, one of the regime’s key allies, imports about 1.5 million barrels of oil per day from Iran—a revenue stream worth billions of dollars that helps fund Tehran’s military projects and foreign operations.
According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Iran exported around 587 million barrels of oil in 2024—an 11% increase from the previous year—earning approximately 43 billion dollars in revenue.
In line with U.S. President Donald Trump’s maximum pressure policy, the U.S. Treasury Department imposed new sanctions in October on Chinese refineries, shadow fleets, and unregistered ships carrying illicit oil shipments.
Cooperation between the Iranian regime and Russia
The Washington Times further quoted experts warning that the revenue from oil sales to China could be used to purchase weapons and defense technologies from Russia.
According to the paper, although the U.N. sanctions include strict arms restrictions, some analysts believe Russia—due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and sense of immunity from punishment—may choose to disregard these limitations.
On October 2, Russia’s Foreign Ministry announced in a statement that the comprehensive strategic treaty between Moscow and Tehran, signed in January 2025 at the Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian regime president Masoud Pezeshkian, had officially entered into force.
The agreement covers military and educational cooperation as well as joint development of nuclear technology—an area that the new U.N. sanctions are specifically intended to restrict.
Iran’s uranium enrichment facilities were destroyed during the twelve-day war with the United States and Israel in June. Tehran has vowed to rebuild them, but the reimposed sanctions could make access to necessary equipment difficult.
The need for U.S.–European coordination
Richard Nephew, program director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, emphasized that the success of the pressure campaign depends on full coordination between the U.S. and Europe.
“I think the bigger impact is gonna be on the proliferation side, potentially making it harder for Iran to get bits and pieces of nuclear kit,” Mr. Nephew said. “But you don’t have a big U.N. infrastructure the way you did in the past, so that makes it hard to imagine you’re gonna have dramatic effects now, unless the U.S., Europeans and others are really willing to step up enforcement.”
The United States and Israel maintain their position that Iran must never be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. Both countries have warned that if the Iranian regime rebuilds its nuclear program, further airstrikes will follow.
