Masoud Nili, a regime-affiliated economist and faculty member at the Department of Management and Economics of Sharif University of Technology, warned that Iran’s economy has entered what he described as the “station before hyperinflation.” He said the country’s economy has moved beyond the stage of chronic inflation and is now facing extremely high and severe inflation that, if left unchecked, could lead to hyperinflation.
Speaking on Monday, July 20, at the “Iran Economy Outlook 2026” conference, Nili stressed that Iran’s economy is now positioned between chronic inflation and hyperinflation. According to him, the inflation Iranians are currently struggling with is no longer ordinary or merely chronic but has entered a stage of extremely high inflation.
Iran’s Negative Economic Growth: From Statistical Manipulation to the Collapse of Investment
He noted that from 1973, when inflation first reached double digits, until the end of 2017, Iran remained in the category of “chronic inflation.” However, since 2018, the country has moved beyond that stage and entered a period of very high inflation.
The economist identified the halt in economic growth as the first sign of the crisis, saying that unlike the years following the Iran-Iraq War, the country’s economic growth has effectively stalled since 2007. He added that the three main macroeconomic indicators—economic growth, inflation, and unemployment—all present an alarming picture of Iran’s economy.
Nili’s warning comes as, in recent months, amid the war, intensified sanctions, and the naval blockade of Iran’s ports, prices of goods and services, foreign exchange rates, gold prices, and the cost of living have all experienced unprecedented surges.
According to the latest report by the Statistical Center of Iran, the country’s economic growth in 2025 was just 0.2% including oil and negative 0.3% excluding oil, indicating a deep recession in the productive sectors of the economy. A number of economists have also warned that if this trend continues, the inflation rate could reach triple digits—a situation typically accompanied by a sharp collapse in the value of the national currency and growing economic uncertainty.
Hemmati Confirms the Economy’s Critical Condition
At the same time as Nili’s remarks, Abdolnaser Hemmati, the governor of Iran’s Central Bank, also confirmed that Iran’s economy is under severe pressure in the areas of foreign trade, production, investment, the state budget, and the banking system.
Referring to the decline in oil exports due to sanctions and other restrictions, he stated that gross fixed capital formation was negative during the first three quarters of 2025 and fell to negative 13% in the third quarter.
Hemmati also reported a sharp decline in people’s real income, saying that real per capita income, based on constant 2021 prices, fell from about 1.41 billion rials in 2011 to about 750 million rials in 2024. In other words, the real income of each Iranian has nearly halved over the past 13 years, returning to levels seen in the 2010s.
Hemmati stressed that the issue is not merely rising prices, but also the shrinking of the economy’s real resources, with each citizen’s share of the country’s generated wealth declining significantly.
These warnings come just one month after Mohammad Bathaei, head of Iran’s Social Affairs Organization, announced that about 60% of Iranians could no longer withstand additional economic pressure.
Despite these assessments, regime officials continue to urge the public to endure the economic hardship. Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, head of the judiciary, said on Monday, July 20, in reference to the current situation: “Standing against the enemy has costs, and we must accept those costs.”
The Painful Situation of the People
What makes Masoud Nili’s remarks particularly significant is not merely his warning about inflation, but the fact that one of the best-known economists close to the government has, for the first time, described Iran’s economy as being on the verge of hyperinflation. Combined with the Central Bank governor’s admission of stalled investment, economic recession, and the halving of people’s real income, the warning presents an unprecedented picture of the depth of the current economic crisis and illustrates the painful condition of Iranian society from a macroeconomic perspective.
