The Washington D.C.-based Institute for Science and International Security, ahead of nuclear negotiations between Iran’s regime and the United States on Saturday, April 12, in Oman, warned in a report that Iran’s nuclear program has reached an “extremely dangerous” stage and could take on military and weapons-related dimensions at any time.
The Institute released its detailed and alarming report titled “The Iran Threat Geiger Counter: Extreme Danger Grows.” A Geiger counter is a device used to detect and measure levels of radioactive radiation. When radiation is detected, the device begins counting and beeping—faster and louder as the radiation level, and danger, increases.
The report states: “Since February 2024, the date of the last edition of the Geiger Counter, the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program has worsened significantly. Major negative factors include Iran’s greater nuclear weapon capabilities, its shorter time frames to build nuclear weapons, and the growing normalization of internal Iranian discussions favoring building nuclear weapons.”
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According to the Institute: “The possibility of Iran deciding to build nuclear weapons has been increased by the ongoing military conflicts in the Middle East, pitting Iran and its proxy forces against Israel and its allies, a conflict Iran is losing. The volatile security situation is now combined with the perception, if not the reality, that Iran is preparing to build nuclear weapons.”
The report states: “The uncertainty is worsened by Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the IAEA as it tries to establish that Iran’s nuclear program is peaceful. With Iran making thousands of advanced centrifuges outside the monitoring of the IAEA, as witnessed by deployments at declared enrichment sites, the chance has risen that Iran is also building, or laying in place, a secret enrichment plant. As uncertainty grows, this or a black swan event could occur. This uncertainty could also feed narratives that exaggerate the threat, further increasing tensions.”
The term “black swan event” refers to rare, unpredictable events that have a massive and disruptive impact.
The Institute further added: “The ongoing conflicts have led to an increased urgency of eliminating the Iranian nuclear weapons threat, whether through renewed negotiation, increased pressure and threats of military force, or actual military force. But no clear path forward has emerged, and the success of any path is not guaranteed, and, at any moment, the Iranian leadership may launch a secret crash program to build nuclear weapons.”
The Institute warned that at any moment, the leaders of Iran’s regime may initiate a secret and accelerated nuclear weapons development program.
The Institute called these developments “serious and concerning,” raising the overall threat score from 151 in February 2024 to 157 out of 180.
This marks the second consecutive time the Institute has rated the threat level as “extreme danger.”
The Institute calculated this score based on several factors: the Iranian regime’s hostile actions (current score: 20), hostile rhetoric (29), short time required to acquire nuclear weapon capability (30), progress in developing sensitive nuclear capabilities (27), lack of transparency in the nuclear program (24), and efforts toward weaponization beyond merely breaching limitations (27). The total score has increased since February 2024 and remains at the “extreme danger” level.
