The Research Center of Iran’s regime Majlis (parliament) announced that according to its assessments, the activation of the snapback mechanism does not have a “serious economic impact” on Iran and is mostly related to restrictions on dual-use technology exports. It added that Iran’s regime, with its experience in circumventing sanctions and the opposition of China and Russia, can manage this restriction.
In its report titled “Review of the Snapback Mechanism and the Economic Consequences of UN Security Council Resolutions Against Iran,” the center wrote: “Sanctions by the Security Council, unlike US secondary sanctions (which are economy-based and target vital sectors such as oil and banking), are proliferation-based and focused on limiting nuclear and missile programs.”
The center added: “The important point is that activating the snapback mechanism does not create a sanctions regime harsher than the current pressures.”
On August 28, the three European signatories to the JCPOA—France, the United Kingdom, and Germany—triggered the 30-day snapback process in a letter to the UN Security Council to reinstate UN sanctions. This move was welcomed by the United States and Israel, while officials of Iran’s regime called it “null and illegal” and vowed an appropriate response.
The parliamentary research center also wrote in its report: “The economic effect of the snapback mechanism is mainly limited to the implementation of an export control regime on dual-use technologies, which, given Iran’s experience in bypassing restrictions and the lack of full alignment by China and Russia, is manageable.”
It added: “The cargo inspection mechanism, due to certain conditions such as requiring the flag state’s consent and the risk of reciprocal actions by Iran, rules out the possibility of a naval blockade or seizure of Iranian ships.”
In recent weeks, officials of Iran’s regime have insisted that the implementation of the snapback mechanism is mostly “psychological.”
The likelihood of international consensus against Iran’s regime is “low.”
While some Iranian media outlets had earlier warned about an international consensus against Iran’s regime, the parliamentary research center put forth a different claim.
On August 4, the state-run newspaper Farhikhtegan, affiliated with Islamic Azad University, warned about rising tensions, the possibility of military confrontation, and the formation of a global consensus against Iran’s regime after the potential activation of the snapback mechanism by European countries.
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But the research center wrote: “The hopeful point is that in the multipolar world of 2025, due to the opposition of powers such as China and Russia—as reflected in the very important letter of the foreign ministers of the three countries Iran, China, and Russia—the possibility of forming an international consensus against Iran will be greatly reduced.”
This refers to the September 1 joint statement by the foreign ministers of Iran’s regime, China, and Russia, in which they declared that the European Union’s attempt to activate the snapback mechanism against Iran is “legally baseless and politically destructive.”
The parliamentary research center wrote: “Adding new names to the sanctions list or reestablishing an expert panel is difficult because it requires consensus in the Security Council and can be vetoed by China and Russia. While US political pressure on Iran’s trade partners, such as China, is possible, it is independent of the use or non-use of the snapback mechanism.”
The center predicted that after the reinstatement of UN sanctions against Iran’s regime, “Iran’s large-scale transactions in oil exports, petrochemicals, and financial settlements will continue without serious challenges, although short-term psychological shocks may occur in asset markets.”
This claim comes at a time when Iran’s economic situation has worsened in recent weeks. Even the Ministry of Intelligence, warned ministries and major companies that the consequences of activating the snapback mechanism could lead to a halt in Iran’s oil sales, trigger major economic and security crises, increase unemployment, and intensify social discontent in the country.
While regime media and institutions are attempting to downplay the impact of the snapback mechanism and the return of UN sanctions by publishing aligned reports, earlier reports revealed that the Supreme National Security Council had ordered media outlets to normalize the atmosphere in the country through such reports and portray the possible return of sanctions as having no effect on people’s lives.
The directive stated that media outlets must, by “maintaining the psychological calm of society,” refrain from publishing any “emotional,” “crisis-inducing,” or “provocative” headlines or analyses in their coverage of the snapback mechanism.
