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Iran is Entering a Cycle of “Mass Migration,” Government Agency Warns

Jubin Katiraie
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Iran is Entering a Cycle of “Mass Migration,” Government Agency Warns

The Strategic Research Center of the Iranian Presidency, in a report based on the results of a survey, has highlighted serious issues in utilizing human capital and warned that Iranian society is entering a phase of “mass migration.”

In a report titled “Managing Migration Abroad,” the center wrote: “We are currently at the peak of the ‘desire and decision’ to migrate, especially among skilled and capital-rich labor.”

The report from the Strategic Research Center is dated August 3, but it gained attention from domestic media on Thursday, August 15.

According to this report, Iranian society is in a unique migratory situation, with a heavy psychological atmosphere surrounding the desire to emigrate, significantly affecting people’s lives.

The report adds that the desire and decision to migrate have “intensified” among various groups, including workers, athletes, doctors, researchers, entrepreneurs, and investors.

In this study, two groups—”doctors and nurses” and “students and graduates”—have identified the economic effects of inflation as a major factor influencing their desire to migrate.

Seventy-three percent of doctors and nurses and 59% of students stated that the effects of inflation had a “very significant” impact on their desire to migrate. Additionally, 63% of doctors and nurses and 51% of students assessed the impact of sanctions on their migration desires as “very significant.”

Doctors and nurses cited dissatisfaction with job income, lack of future security, imbalance between income and expenses, and the commercialization of their field as the main reasons for their migration.

Previously, the head of the Iranian Medical Council had warned, “The exodus of doctors from the country is a serious issue.”

In June 2023, the head of the Health and Treatment Commission of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (Parliament) reported that about ten thousand specialists and sub-specialists had obtained the necessary certification for work migration over two years, stating that Arab countries have become the primary destination for Iranian doctors.

According to the report by the Strategic Research Center, on the other hand, entrepreneurs and startups have cited reasons related to economic uncertainty and insecurity, including economic sanctions, severe inflation, currency fluctuations, economic instability and unpredictability, the unprofitability of production, complex bureaucracy, and instability in domestic and foreign policies. They have mentioned the attractiveness of the investment environment and the stability of the destination country as reasons for their migration.

IRGC-Linked Hackers Targeted the Trump and Biden Campaigns

Hoshang Amiri
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IRGC-Linked Hackers Targeted the Trump and Biden Campaigns

Iran-linked hackers targeted the campaign headquarters of both current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Google has confirmed.

On Wednesday, August 14, Google’s Threat Analysis Group reported that the APT42 hacker group targeted the personal email accounts of about a dozen individuals associated with Biden and Trump, the Republican Party’s nominee in this November’s election.

Google’s report also stated that APT42 “successfully accessed the personal Gmail account of a veteran political advisor,” but the name of the advisor was not disclosed.

On Tuesday, it was reported that the personal email account of Roger Stone, a supporter of Donald Trump, was possibly accessed by hackers linked to the Iranian government.

According to Google, the APT42 hacker group is linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and consistently targets high-profile users in Israel and the United States.

Based on a chart included in Google’s report, this hacking group has even targeted users inside Iran to gain access to their computer systems.

Current and former government officials, political campaigns, diplomats, think tank members, as well as NGOs and academic institutions involved in foreign policy discussions, have all been targeted by this IRGC-linked group.

According to Google, in the past six months, about 60% of APT42’s known geographic targets were focused on the U.S. and Israel, indicating this group’s aggressive and multifaceted efforts to rapidly shift its operational focus in support of the Iranian regime’s political and military priorities.

According to the report, the APT42 hacker group had also previously attempted to interfere in the 2020 U.S. presidential election.

According to Politico, early Wednesday, Trump, in his first public comment on the incident, accused the Iranian regime of hacking his campaign and praised the FBI’s investigation into the hack.

On the same day, The Washington Post reported that the FBI stated it is also investigating suspicious attempts attributed to the Iranian regime to hack the Biden-Harris campaign and a Trump aide.

The Washington Post, citing several informed sources, reported that FBI agents investigating the efforts of Tehran-linked hackers to target the Trump, Biden, and Harris campaigns have found evidence indicating that one of the targets of these hackers was Susie Wiles, a senior advisor to Trump.

IRGC Officer Killed in Drone Strike in Syria

Esmaeil Mohades
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IRGC Officer Killed in Drone Strike in Syria

The Iranian regime’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced that one of its Aerospace Force officers has died due to injuries sustained in an airstrike in Syria. Tehran claims that this attack was carried out by the U.S.-led coalition.

In a statement published by Iranian regime news agencies on Thursday, August 15, Hossein Salami, the commander of the IRGC, identified Ahmadreza Afshari as one of the “Aerospace industry specialists of the IRGC in Syria” who died from injuries caused by the airstrike.

Government officials and Iranian regime media refer to members of the IRGC operating in Syria as “advisors,” but most of them are members of the Quds Force, the IRGC’s extraterritorial branch, playing a crucial role in maintaining Iran’s proxy groups.

In his “condolence message,” Hossein Salami stated that Ahmadreza Afshari was injured during an attack by “coalition forces” in Syria that took place a few days ago. He was transferred to Iran for medical treatment but succumbed to his injuries on Thursday.

The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights had previously reported that five Iran-backed militiamen were killed in Syria due to a drone strike in Deir ez-Zor province.

On August 11, Agence France-Presse (AFP), citing this report, announced that a vehicle carrying militia groups near the Iraq-Syria border was targeted in this strike. Reuters, in a separate report, also confirmed the deaths of five individuals in the attack, quoting two security sources.

The location of this incident was reported to be in eastern Deir ez-Zor province, where Iran’s proxy forces have a significant presence and have frequently been targeted by the U.S. or Israel. However, neither of these countries has claimed responsibility for this attack.

Israel rarely acknowledges its attacks on Iran-backed militias.

The August 11 drone strike on Iran-backed forces followed a drone attack on the International Coalition base in “Kharab al-Jir” near Hasakah in northeastern Syria, during which several U.S. and coalition soldiers were injured.

Since the start of the Syrian civil war over a decade ago, Iran’s proxy forces and Hezbollah have been fighting in support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Israel has also conducted hundreds of strikes against these forces.

An Israeli airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1 is an example of these attacks, which resulted in the deaths of several Iranian military personnel, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander of the IRGC’s Quds Force.

In retaliation for this attack, Iran launched unprecedented drone and missile strikes on Israeli territory in the early hours of April 13.

Regional tensions, which had previously escalated with the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, entered a new phase after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, during his visit to Tehran on July 31.

Hamas is listed as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

Since then, the Iranian regime has repeatedly threatened retaliatory action against Israel, while the U.S. has expressed its expectation that Iran will refrain from any potential military strike against Israel in response to Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination.

It appears that the Iranian regime is caught between the dilemma of whether to attack or not. If it attacks, it may face a severe response from Israel, and if it refrains, its claims of power will be questioned.

What is certain is that the Iranian regime is much weaker than it appears.

The regime’s primary fear is of an uprising by the Iranian people and potential overthrow, similar to what nearly happened in 2022 when the regime was brought to the brink of collapse. This fear makes the Iranian regime increasingly cautious of further causing tension in the region and weakening its stance.

Halt in Iran’s Oil Production Growth Since Early Spring, Per OPEC, IEA 

Esmaeil Mohades
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Halt in Iran’s Oil Production Growth Since Early Spring, Per OPEC, IEA 

New statistics from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that Iran’s oil production experienced significant growth last year, but this growth has stalled since the beginning of this spring.

The International Energy Agency estimated Iran’s daily oil production in July at around 3.35 million barrels, while OPEC’s assessment placed it at about 3.27 million barrels.

Before U.S. sanctions, Iran’s daily crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels, but this figure dropped to less than 2 million barrels towards the end of Donald Trump’s administration. However, production started to rise again after Joe Biden took office.

Data from Vortexa, a tanker tracking company, indicates that Iran’s daily exports of oil and gas condensates have remained steady at around 1.7 million barrels over the past few months.

Before the U.S. sanctions, Iran’s regime exported about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensates (a type of ultra-light crude oil produced from gas fields) daily, but this figure dropped to 330,000 barrels towards the end of Trump’s presidency.

China is currently the buyer of over 95% of Iran’s oil exports, with the remaining oil being sent to Syria.

The International Energy Agency states that global oil demand growth in the second quarter of this year has slowed to nearly the same level as in the spring. It is expected that global oil consumption will increase by only 1 million barrels per day this year, with a similar increase anticipated for next year.

This is in contrast to last year when global oil consumption increased by 2.5 million barrels per day.

The slowdown in global oil demand growth is primarily due to the Chinese market, where electric vehicle purchases have surged. In the first half of this year, more than half of the cars sold in China were electric.

Oil consumption in Europe is expected to decline this year, and the Americas will see only a slight increase in oil consumption.

The Tehran Stock Exchange Index Has Dropped Twenty Times in the Last 24 Days  

Jubin Katiraie
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The Tehran Stock Exchange Index Has Dropped Twenty Times in the Last 24 Days  

Reports indicate that the Tehran Stock Exchange index once again fell on Tuesday, August 13, dropping to 1,991,000 points.

Over the past 24 days, the overall index has been negatived for 20 days, with the total index declining by 210,000 points, equivalent to more than a 10% drop.

The National Development Fund recently injected 6 trillion rials (approximately 10 million dollars) into the stock market in two separate rounds, but this action failed to prevent the index from declining.

On Tuesday, following a 7,568-point drop in the overall index, Mohammad Reza Farzin, the Governor of the Central Bank, announced that in today’s Supreme Council of the Stock Exchange meeting, it was agreed that support from the banking system for the capital market would begin on Wednesday.

He did not explain exactly what measures the banking system would take to “support” the stock market or why the recent financial interventions by the National Development Fund have not helped the stock market’s situation.

Earlier, the Stock Exchange Organization had requested the creation of a credit line or the deposit of at least 500 trillion rials (approximately 833.33 million dollars) into the stock market.

Estimates show that nearly 50 trillion rials (approximately 83.33 million dollars) of real money has exited the stock market in just the past two weeks. The largest capital flight from this market occurred on July 31, following the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the subsequent threats of retaliation by the Iranian regime the following day.

With reports circulating about the possible “definitive decision” by the Iranian regime to attack Israel, nearly 12 trillion rials (approximately 20 million dollars) exited the stock market again on August 12.

The drop in the stock index and the outflow of real money from the market means significant losses for individuals who, for whatever reason, have been unwilling to sell the shares they purchased.

The fluctuations in the stock index over the past few years have followed an unusual pattern. For example, during the economic crisis and the decline in Iran’s GDP, the stock index rose from 500,000 points in mid-March 2020 to 2.5 million points in the spring of last year.

Some experts have reported deliberate manipulation of the stock market by the government, a claim that both the twelfth and thirteenth administrations have denied.

5 Iranian Female Activists Sentenced to Over 20 Years in Prison

Esmaeil Mohades
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5 Iranian Female Activists Sentenced to Over 20 Years in Prison

The human rights organization Hengaw announced on Monday, August 12, that five female activists from Gilan (northern Iran), who were active in media and environmental issues, have been sentenced by the Iranian regime’s judiciary to a total of more than 20 years and seven months of imprisonment.
According to this report, Anahita Dustdar, Nina Golestani, Rezita Rajai, Anahita Hejazi, and Negin Edalatkhah were each sentenced to three years, six months, and one day in prison on charges of “collusion and assembly,” and to seven months and sixteen days for “propaganda against the regime.”

The sentences were given by Judge Mehdi Rasekhi, and officially communicated to the activists.
Rezita Rajai, a writer, Anahita Hejazi, the director of Anna Animal Shelter in Rasht, along with three others, were arrested by the Iranian regime’s security forces on November 11, 2023, and were temporarily released from Lakan Prison in Rasht after posting bail.

Previously, on July 13, 2024, six civil and women’s rights activists from Gilan, named Forough Samii-Nia, Jelveh Javaheri, Shiva Shah-Sia, Negin Rezaei, Matin Yazdani, and Azadeh Chavooshian, had been transferred to Lakan Prison in Rasht to serve their prison sentences.

According to reports from human rights organizations, Iranian regime officials, following the nationwide protests triggered by the death of Mahsa Amini in the custody of the Morality Police in 2022, have intensified their crackdown on women’s rights activists and human rights defenders, resorting to harsher methods and issuing heavy sentences to silence dissenting voices.

Iranian Political Prisoners Face Escalating Wave of Executions Amid Nationwide Protests

Hoshang Amiri
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Iranian Political Prisoners Face Escalating Wave of Executions Amid Nationwide Protests

Since Tuesday of last week, August 6, the Iranian regime has executed more than 45 people, with 29 of them in a single day and 26 executed collectively at Ghezel Hesar Prison, setting a new record for state-sanctioned killings and executions in recent years.

In recent weeks, a large number of political prisoners have been sentenced to death under vague judicial processes on charges fabricated by the regime, such as “baghi” (rebellion against the Islamic government) and “efsad fil-arz” (spreading corruption on earth).

Meanwhile, six Sunni political prisoners face imminent execution by the Revolutionary Court in Mashhad.

The rise in executions followed the inauguration of the new president of the Iranian regime, who has claimed that “Iran is the safest country in the Middle East.”

Political prisoners across Iran are engaging in a hunger strike as part of a campaign called “No to Executions Tuesdays,” protesting the execution sentences of fellow inmates.

Activists in this campaign, many of whom are well-known prisoners participating in the hunger strike, have pointed out that following the death of Ebrahim Raisi, a member of the “Death Committee” responsible for the 1988 massacre (where the majority of the 30,000 executed political prisoners were members of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran, the largest opposition group to the regime), and in the lead-up to the regime’s staged “presidential elections,” the Iranian regime’s repressive apparatus temporarily reduced the number of executions. However, we, the prisoners of the “No to Executions Tuesdays” campaign, warned at that time that this reduction was temporary and that a widespread wave of executions was likely to follow.

Last week, female prisoners in Evin Prison protested the execution of Reza Rasaei and were met with beatings by security forces.

Poverty In Iran Causing an Increase in Child Marriage

Mehdi Hosseini
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Poverty In Iran Causing an Increase in Child Marriage

The state-run donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper reported that economic challenges such as high inflation and income inequality are key factors contributing to child marriage in Iran and claimed that the shrinking middle class has also exacerbated this issue.

On Tuesday, August 13, Donya-e-Eqtesad published the results of a study on “child marriage,” stating, “In Iran, factors such as low per capita income, high inflation, and income inequality are among the main causes of early child marriages.”

Donya-e-Eqtesad claimed that contrary to popular belief, the “prevailing religious view in the country” has not had a “significant” impact on early child marriages. Instead, factors such as economic sanctions and the shrinking middle class in Iran have played a larger role in child marriage.

The newspaper wrote that “studies” show that in Iran, early marriage is more often related to girls getting married before reaching puberty.

The report notes that there are many obstacles to stopping early child marriages in Iran. For example, the government opposes enacting strict laws on marriage due to concerns about a decline in birth rates.

According to the latest official statistics released in Iran by the government’s Statistical Center, at least 27,448 marriages involving girls under 15 years old occurred across various parts of Iran from winter 2021 to the end of autumn 2022.

Academic research shows that early marriage is a significant factor in domestic violence, school dropout rates among girls, and is considered a form of child sexual abuse in the context of marital relationships.

According to previous reports, some instances of child marriage have occurred due to poverty and the availability of marriage loans. Additionally, a 2021 report from Iran’s Ministry of Welfare stated that one in three Iranians lives below the poverty line and cannot meet their basic needs, leading some families to prefer reducing the number of dependents by forcing children, who lack understanding of sexual matters, into sexual relationships without their consent or awareness.

The promotion of “childbearing” by order of Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran’s regime, and the provision of banking facilities for marriage and childbearing in recent years have led some families in parts of Iran to marry off their under-18 children due to poverty to benefit from these incentives.

For years, the United Nations and its oversight mechanisms have called on the Iranian regime to change its laws to prevent child marriage and criminalize domestic violence. However, in practice, the regime has not only failed to take structural action in response to these requests but has also manipulated statistical categories to distort official data related to marriage and motherhood ages.

It is worth noting that official reports only include marriages that have been “officially registered,” while two years ago, the state-run ISNA news agency quoted experts stating that most child marriages are unregistered, and no accurate statistics are available on them.

Water Crisis Peaks in Isfahan with Seven-Hour Water Cuts

Hoshang Amiri
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Water Crisis Peaks in Isfahan with Seven-Hour Water Cuts

The energy imbalance in Iran has entered a new phase with the escalating crisis in the supply of drinking water in Isfahan, as the state-run Shargh newspaper reported that some neighborhoods in Isfahan are without water for up to seven hours. Meanwhile, media outlets report the continued and worsening imbalance in the water and electricity sectors across the country.

On Tuesday, August 13, Shargh wrote that the water crisis in Isfahan has reached residential areas, with some neighborhoods experiencing water cuts for up to seven hours.

The newspaper also emphasized that the water cuts in Isfahan have disrupted daily life, and water tankers have been unable to meet the residents’ needs. Shargh described the situation as “unbearable” for the people and warned of the consequences of water shortages.

In another report, the newspaper addressed the issue of electricity, highlighting that the electricity imbalance has led to frequent power outages in Tehran neighborhoods.

In some parts of the capital, the supply of city electricity has faced challenges, leaving streets in darkness and traffic lights non-functional.

The continuous and widespread power outages have not only affected citizens’ well-being but have also caused severe traffic congestion in Tehran.

Nournews website, close to Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, also addressed the issue, writing, “Record-breaking electricity and water consumption due to unprecedented heat continues, and the water situation is similarly critical. While in drought conditions, water consumption is defined as 133 liters, the current average consumption in Tehran is 233 liters.”

Nournews wrote, “Electricity and water consumption during the country’s hot and feverish days have surpassed the red level, and the situation is not in good condition.”

This media outlet identified the signs of this crisis and the crossing of the red level as the serial, long-term, and widespread power outages in Tehran. It emphasized that with the continuation of “tropical heat,” electricity and water industry officials are now warning that if energy consumption increases in the coming days, the blackouts and water cuts will continue.

According to media reports, as the weather heats up, water consumption has also increased, setting new records for drinking water use.

In this context, on Monday, August 12, a water and sewage manager mentioned that Tehran residents have broken records in water consumption, stating that this year, average water use in Tehran reached nearly 4 million cubic meters, compared to 3.7 million cubic meters in previous years.

Donya-e-Eqtesad newspaper also discussed the consequences of the energy imbalance, stating, “If frequent power outages continue, industrial production may decline in the coming months, and we may be forced to import extensively to meet domestic demand, even though the country is facing a currency shortage.”

Donya-e-Eqtesad wrote that with the increase in blackouts, the risk of economic shutdowns will bring the country into even more severe problems.

The newspaper emphasized that this trend is likely to repeat in Iran’s future, stating, “This is not a prediction but a technical reality based on a type of specialized optimization.”

In a report on August 10, Shargh addressed the challenges in the production sector and the impact of power outages on the country’s production process, noting that an examination of the performance of 120 publicly traded companies shows that nearly 60% of these companies faced a decline in production in the first four months of this year (from March 21 to July 21) compared to the same period last year, with some companies experiencing a production drop of up to 70%.

However, some experts do not attribute the energy sector’s crisis to any specific government, believing that this situation is the result of the Iranian regime’s governance over the past four decades. A look at energy-related incidents shows that under various governments, people have witnessed power outages, gasoline shortages, and water and gas cuts, with weather conditions determining their severity.

Published reports indicate that while the Iranian regime has spent a significant portion of the country’s resources over the past 20 years on developing its nuclear program and “completing the Bushehr power plant” under the pretext of “electricity production,” the people have repeatedly faced widespread power outages during the summer and rising temperatures in Iran.

Experts believe that the lack of planning and behavior outside of economic frameworks in developmental matters is the main cause of the energy imbalance and argue that under this style of governance, there is little hope for improving the situation.

10 Women Murdered in Iran Over 10 Days

Hoshang Amiri
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10 Women Murdered in Iran Over 10 Days

The Hengaw Human Rights Organization, in a new report highlighting the rising trend of “femicide” in Iran, announced that in the past 10 days, at least 10 women have been killed in various cities across the country.

According to this report, during the first 10 days of August 2024, at least 10 women were killed in the cities of Sib and Saravan (two cases), Shiraz (two cases), Kouhrang, Shahriar, Tehran, Fasa, Rudan, and Zanjan.

Data from a specialized platform on gender-based killings in Iran also shows that in the first half of 2024, the rate of femicide in Iran increased by 60% compared to the same period in the previous year.

Femicide in Iran targets girls and women from all social strata, with these crimes, often committed by male family members, occurring in both urban and rural areas across all levels of socio-economic status.

The highest number of gender-based killings has been recorded in Tehran, a city diverse in terms of ethnicity, society, and economy. Analysis of the age distribution of victims shows that “40% of the victims are young, between 15 and 35 years old, and a wide range of age groups are affected by gender-based killings.”

The majority of femicide perpetrators are male family members, particularly husbands, and many of these killings are due to family disputes.

The Iranian regime uses the term “honor killing” to cover up cases of femicide and filicide, aiming to prevent the spread of news related to these murders. The regime’s laws, culture, and ideology facilitate and, in many cases, encourage violence against women and girls. The regime’s misogynistic laws institutionalize discrimination against women.

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