Economic experts always emphasize the key role of smart governance in maintaining financial stability and preserving the value of Iran’s rial. A look at official statistics reveals that incompetence in economic policymaking is the primary driver of the current crisis. The Iranian regime’s officials failed to make the country’s financial structures resilient against internal and external shocks. The absence of a comprehensive support program has doubled the negative impacts of this situation on public livelihoods. In recent years, imbalances in the public budget led to increasing borrowing from the Central Bank. This trend caused an uncontrolled surge in liquidity and expanded the monetary base.

Many analysts believe that the root causes of this turmoil date back to the years preceding the military conflicts. Structural mismanagement wasted the country’s foreign exchange resources and severely weakened the economy’s buffering capacity. Consequently, the first sparks of tension ignited the currency crisis. A report by the Central Bank of Iran in June 2026 revealed that the country’s total liquidity crossed the threshold of 14.9 trillion tomans. This liquidity growth was the direct result of the government’s hidden budget deficit.

Disregarding the severity of the crisis, the Iranian regime continued to print unbacked money. The latest data published on the Central Bank of Iran website reported the monetary base growth rate at over 61.5%. This large figure represents a ticking time bomb at the heart of the country’s half-dead economy. Independent experts repeatedly warned officials about the consequences of these destructive policies. Nonetheless, the approach to economic management remained unchanged, making the path toward collapse smoother.

The Role of Executive Incompetence During Conflicts on the Foreign Exchange Market

A detailed examination shows that the recent war merely accelerated the collapse of the value of the rial. The ailing structure of the economy lacked the capacity to withstand new pressures even before the conflict. Through its incorrect decisions, the Iranian regime worsened the livelihood struggles of citizens during the crisis. Amid the military conflicts, the price of the dollar in the open market climbed daily without interruption.

Meanwhile, government officials made contradictory statements regarding the country’s foreign exchange reserves. The Central Bank announced in late June 2026 that 4.5 billion dollars had been added to the foreign exchange reserves in recent months. It is worth noting that due to the dire state of foreign exchange reserves, the regime’s officials have avoided disclosing the absolute total figure of reserves for years, reporting only positive or negative changes. In its latest report, the International Monetary Fund estimated the Iranian regime’s “readily available” foreign exchange reserves for 2025 at 22.9 billion dollars. According to field reports from credible economic news agencies, the dollar rate experienced an unprecedented jump at the height of the conflicts. The capital market also suffered heavy and historic drops due to these insecurities, as evidenced by daily data from the Securities and Exchange Organization. Retail investors withdrew their money from the stock market to protect the value of their assets.

The public rush to speculatively buy gold and foreign currency multiplied the pressure on the value of the rial. According to official currency transaction data on the Central Bank of Iran website, the supply of foreign exchange for importing essential goods was severely disrupted during the war. The acute shortage of foreign currency resources abruptly raised the prices of consumer goods. Mismanagement in the distribution of preferential currency created an environment for macro-rent-seeking by well-connected brokers.

 What Do Official Statistics Say About Inflation Rates and the Post-War Collapse?

In its latest official report in June 2026 on the national portal of the Statistical Centre of Iran, the institution revealed new dimensions of the crisis. The Consumer Price Index shows an unprecedented upward trend on an annual basis. Based on this data, the country’s annual inflation rate has reached a staggering 62%. This statistic indicates that the public’s living costs have increased by more than half compared to last year. Point-to-point inflation even surpassed the 88.6% threshold.

The Central Bank’s analytical reports fully confirm these bitter economic realities. The freefall of the value of the rial effectively stripped private sector actors of any long-term planning capabilities. According to the periodic assessment by The Economist in April 2026, the country’s economic growth rate, excluding oil, dropped to negative 9.2%. This figure reflects a deep recession across the country’s industrial and manufacturing sectors. Domestic producers cannot afford raw materials due to the severe fluctuations in the exchange rate.

The statistical database of the International Monetary Fund evaluated Iran’s financial outlook as highly bleak in its recent analysis. In its report for the first half of 2026, the IMF forecast Iran’s economic growth at negative 6.1 percent due to infrastructural and trade crises. This international institution considers structural budget deficits to be the main root of high inflation. The combination of these factors with the ruling establishment’s executive incompetence has shrunk the public’s dining tables to the smallest possible size. The plunge in the value of the national currency completely destroyed the purchasing power of workers and employees.

The Drastic Drop in the Value of the Rial and the Shrinking Livelihoods of the People

The continuous drop in the value of the rial has directly targeted the financial capabilities of families across all provinces. Securing basic needs such as housing, healthcare, and food has become a daily struggle for a large segment of society. Statistical evidence cited by labor representative Hamid Haj-Esmaeili on portals linked to the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labour, and Social Welfare places the poverty line in the capital at an astonishing 60 million tomans. According to this data, a family of four needs an income above 60 million tomans just to survive. The minimum wage approved by the Supreme Labor Council does not cover even one-sixth of this amount.

The deep chasm between incomes and expenditures accelerated the unfortunate slide of the middle class below the poverty line. Field reports indicate that the consumption of meat and dairy products among lower deciles fell by up to 45%. Malnutrition, particularly among children in underprivileged areas, has turned into a severe crisis. The phenomena of shared rentals and suburban slum expansion have risen sharply based on housing sector data from the Statistical Centre of Iran.

Instead of solving the root causes of the problems, regime officials have resorted to distributing meager and ineffective cash subsidies. The real value of these subsidies vanishes within a few weeks due to high inflation. Independent economic experts believe that these temporary palliative measures only increase the volume of liquidity in the market. The ultimate result of this vicious cycle will be a new wave of price hikes in the coming months.

The Collapse of the Value of the Rial and the Paralysis of Production and Foreign Trade

The drop in the value of the rial has completely paralyzed the supply chain of domestic manufacturing industries. A major share of factories relies heavily on imported raw materials to manufacture their products. The surge in the dollar’s price caused production costs in certain industries to skyrocket by up to 120%. In its quarterly report published on the Iran Chamber of Commerce website, the chamber announced that more than 40% of small manufacturing units have shut down. The remaining units operate at less than half of their actual capacity.

Instability in government currency regulations also confronted non-oil exporters with severe challenges. Sudden directives from the Central Bank regarding the repatriation of export earnings completely destroyed export incentives. Due to extreme price volatility, Iranian merchants cannot sign long-term contracts with foreign partners. Consequently, Iran’s export markets in neighboring countries like Iraq and Afghanistan are gradually being lost to competitors.

The Research Center of the Chamber of Commerce announced in July 2026 that the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dropped sharply. This index, whose data is accessible on the Iran Chamber of Commerce portal, clearly demonstrates a severe recession in the industrial, service, and construction sectors. Capital flight from production toward non-productive markets has endangered the future of employment in the country. According to official data, the unemployment rate among university graduates has climbed above 39%. 

Crisis in the Banking System and Financial Imbalances of Government Organs

Under the impact of the collapsing value of the rial, the country’s banking system faces a hidden threat of bankruptcy. Severe banking imbalances are the direct result of government mandates forcing banks to extend loans to specific state-backed entities. An official report by the Majlis Research Center in May 2026 showed that commercial banks’ debt to the Central Bank increased. This debt grew by 48% compared to the previous year, turning into a massive crisis. The accumulated losses of state-owned and private banks have severely diminished their capacity to offer loans.

Many of the country’s large financial institutions survive solely on direct, daily injections of money from the Central Bank. This situation translates into the second-by-second generation of inflation and a further erosion of public purchasing power. The country’s pension funds are also in a state of extreme financial imbalance. Due to its budget deficit, the government is unable to pay its financial shares to these supportive funds.

The Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance pointed out this issue in a confidential report, aspects of which were leaked. According to this text, analyzed on the platform of the Majlis Research Center, more than 80% of the pension funds’ budget is supplied directly from the general public budget. This heavy reliance places a massive financial burden on the country’s administrative structure. The continuation of this trend poses a serious threat to the financial sustainability of the entire economic system.

 Social and Psychological Repercussions of Economic Collapse in Society

Sociologists warn about the dire consequences of expanding absolute poverty across various layers of society. Severe economic insecurity completely eradicates the motivation for entrepreneurship, innovation, and productive activities. When the value of the rial depreciates daily, the inclination toward speculative activities accelerates. Rather than entering the production sector, public capital is directed toward speculative markets for gold, foreign currency, and automobiles. This economic behavior is a direct result of psychological insecurity and a lack of trust in the country’s future.

The migration rate of specialized professionals and physicians experienced a dramatic increase according to data released on the portal of the Iranian regime Medical Council. In just the first eight months of the Iranian year 2024, more than 4,500 doctors and medical staff left the country for developed nations. The sudden exit of this volume of human capital confronts the healthcare system with a crisis. The brain drain in engineering and information technology has also inflicted irreversible damage on the manufacturing infrastructure.

Diminishing hope for the future among the younger generation has severely reduced marriage rates. Official statistics on the National Organization for Civil Registration website show that the marriage rate dropped by nearly 40% over the past five years. Conversely, divorce rates have increased due to livelihood problems and recurring psychological pressures. The regime’s mismanagement has severely weakened social foundations and family structures in Iran.

End of New Year Holidays Marked by Continued Decline in the Value of the Iranian Rial

Future Outlook of Iran’s Economy and the Paths Ahead

International analysts believe that without fundamental changes in foreign policy, improving the situation remains impossible. The financial isolation of the Iranian regime and its inclusion on the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) blacklist have blocked trade channels. Financial transaction costs for Iranian merchants have increased by 15% to 20% due to the reliance on intermediaries. These extra costs are ultimately extracted from the pockets of end consumers and ordinary citizens.

An Institute of International Finance (IIF) report, key points of which were shared on the International Monetary Fund website, focused on the fact that the Iranian regime requires deep structural reforms—a prospect that seems like a mirage. These reforms include full independence for the Central Bank, removing mandatory price-fixing, and a genuine fight against systemic corruption. However, the current governance structure shows no willingness to execute these painful economic surgeries. The interests of powerful quasi-governmental entities, such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), the Mostazafan Foundation, and the “Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order” (EIKO), rely heavily on the continuation of this chaotic status quo and lack of financial transparency.

Experts believe that continuing current policies will drive the country toward three-digit hyperinflation. Should this occur, the value of the rial will completely lose its functionality as a national currency. The experience of countries undergoing economic collapse shows that without political will from the Iranian regime, the downfall of public livelihoods will continue at a faster pace than before.

 Crisis Upon Crisis: A Chronic Breakdown

An analysis of economic trends demonstrates that the current crisis did not emerge overnight. The collapse of the value of the rial, runaway inflation, and the severe erosion of purchasing power are clear indicators of chronic mismanagement and the Iranian regime’s incompetence in handling crises. Recent military tensions merely acted as a catalyst, exposing the depth of structural damages. The Iranian regime shaped this reality by adopting flawed financial policies before the war, exhibiting a total lack of planning during the war, and abandoning market controls afterward.

Official statistics from the Central Bank and the Statistical Centre of Iran bear witness to the fact that the public’s dining tables have fallen victim to the political decisions of the Iranian regime. The reality is that the livelihoods of society have been sacrificed for the regime’s deliberate policy failures, which have driven national resources to ruin.

Hossein Raghfar, an economist close to the Iranian regime, described Iran’s economic situation as “very unfavorable” and warned that the continued policy of increasing the exchange rate could push the country’s economy toward hyperinflation.

Speaking on Saturday in an interview with the state-run ILNA news agency, Raghfar responded to recent remarks by Masoud Nili, an economist close to the Iranian regime, who said Iran is at the “station before hyperinflation.” Raghfar said the country’s economy has not yet entered the hyperinflation stage, but there are worrying signs that the crisis is intensifying.

Triple-Digit Inflation Pushes Iran’s Lower and Middle Classes to Breaking Point

Referring to the sharp rise in market prices, he said many goods have become more than 100% more expensive over the past few months. However, from a scientific perspective, hyperinflation occurs when the monthly inflation rate reaches about 40% to 50%, a situation that, according to him, Iran’s economy has not yet reached.

The university professor identified the government’s exchange-rate policies as one of the main factors worsening the economic crisis and stressed that if the continuous increase in the exchange rate persists, it could pave the way for Iran’s economy to enter the hyperinflation stage.

Raghfar’s remarks come as the continuous increase in the prices of goods and services has placed growing pressure on citizens’ livelihoods and sharply reduced the purchasing power of a large share of households. At the same time, officials of the Iranian regime, instead of presenting an effective plan to curb inflation and stabilize the market, have primarily emphasized the need for the public to show “resilience” in the face of economic hardships.

It should be recalled that Masoud Nili, a regime-affiliated economist and faculty member at the Sharif University of Technology’s School of Management and Economics, previously warned that Iran’s economy has entered what he described as the “station before hyperinflation.” He said the country’s economy has moved beyond chronic inflation and is now facing extremely high and severe inflation, a situation that, if left unchecked, could lead to hyperinflation.

Speaking on Monday, July 20, 2026, at the conference titled “Iran Economy Outlook 2026,” Nili stressed that Iran’s economy now stands between chronic inflation and hyperinflation. According to him, the inflation the Iranian people are struggling with today is no longer ordinary or merely chronic inflation, but has entered a phase of extremely high inflation.

A Reuters special investigation shows that one of the world’s largest illegal gambling networks has become part of the Iranian regime’s multi-billion-dollar sanctions evasion operation through an unlicensed cryptocurrency exchange in Dubai.

The exchange, called “Shelbit,” has processed at least $4 billion in cryptocurrency since May 2024. According to blockchain data analysis, it has been linked to the Central Bank of Iran, sanctioned entities, and cryptocurrency wallets attributed to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Shelbit’s official address is an office on the upper floor of a budget hotel in Dubai’s Deira district. The exchange is run by Siavash Keyvanpour, an Iranian living abroad, but Shelbit has no active website or clear means of providing services to the public.

US Sanctions Global Network Supporting Mahan Air and IRGC

Employees whom the Reuters reporter found at the address claimed they had never heard of Shelbit or Keyvanpour. The office was registered under the name of a watch sales company, and inside there were only a few worn watches, a cash-counting machine, and a desk.

One of Shelbit’s main clients is a Persian-language network comprising more than 2,000 gambling websites. The network’s two main promotional figures are Iranian influencers Sasha Sobhani and Pouyan Mokhtari, who showcase their lavish lifestyles on social media, including multi-million-dollar cars, luxury villas, private jets, and yacht parties.

Reuters identified more than 60 Iranian influencers promoting these gambling websites, with about half of them having more than one million followers.

A technical analysis by cybersecurity company Infoblox found that websites registered under seemingly different names and brands use common software and technical features, indicating they are part of a single network. One of these websites alone has processed more than $130 million through Shelbit since May 2024.

Gambling is prohibited under the Iranian regime and is punishable by imprisonment and flogging. However, this network has access to Iran’s electronic payment system, which is subject to strict government oversight.

Former regime officials and individuals with ties to the IRGC told Reuters that the IRGC took control of the largest online gambling networks about a decade ago, as online gambling expanded.

Blockchain data show that Shelbit has processed at least $125 million for the Central Bank of Iran.

The exchange has also received at least $20 million from an operation that experts identify as a cryptocurrency mining network in Iran.

Cryptocurrency mining, which the Iranian regime legalized in 2019, has become an important tool for circumventing sanctions. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies mined in Iran can be sold on international markets without relying on the global banking system.

Since May 2024, at least $676 million has been transferred from addresses linked to Shelbit to Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange.

Sobhani, Mokhtari, and Keyvanpour were prosecuted in Iran in connection with the abt90 and Hazarat gambling websites. In 2023, Sobhani and Mokhtari were each sentenced in absentia to two years in prison, while Keyvanpour received a three-month prison sentence. Iran’s regime issued Interpol Red Notices for Sobhani and Mokhtari, and both were arrested in Spain. However, the notices were later withdrawn, and the Spanish case was closed.

Sobhani denied any involvement in money laundering, sanctions evasion, terrorism financing, or transferring funds on behalf of the Iranian regime, the Central Bank of Iran, or the IRGC. He said he had only been paid to advertise certain gambling websites and was neither their owner nor manager.

Mokhtari also said he is not a member of the IRGC or any military group affiliated with the Iranian regime and rejected the allegations made by Dubai authorities. Both men said they do not know Shelbit or Keyvanpour and have no knowledge of any possible connection between their activities and the Iranian regime.

Mokhtari was arrested in Dubai in late March on suspicion of financing Iranian regime groups accused of carrying out attacks against the United Arab Emirates.

This case illustrates how the combination of illegal gambling, social media influencers, Iran’s domestic banking infrastructure, cryptocurrency mining, and international cryptocurrency exchanges has helped the Iranian regime circumvent Western financial and banking restrictions.