Home Blog Page 278

A Disastrous Decade for Iran’s Economy

Jubin Katiraie
-
0
A Disastrous Decade for Iran’s Economy

While President Hassan Rouhani falsely brags about his administration’s accomplishments, statistics show that Iran has experienced a disastrous decade in the economic aspect. Contrary to his claims about reforms, Rouhani refused to reform the flawed budget structure and banking system during his term in office.

In such circumstances, economists described the 2010s as a lost decade in Iran’s fiscal history, which severely affected Iranian families’ livelihood and drove millions of citizens below the poverty line.

“During the 2010s, we came into political and diplomatic field twice, and we defeated the enemy twice. It would not be a mistake to name this decade the decade of victory and national salvation. We were not wrong in saying that this decade was the decade of progress in the country and a leap in production and development. A great and dramatic job was done,” said Rouhani during the inauguration of petrochemical plans on April 15.

In response to Rouhani’s odd remarks, Mohammad Hadi Sobhanian, a Kharazmi University Scientific Board member, described the 2010s as “a lost decade in Iran’s economy.”

“During the 2010s, Iran’s economy experienced ebbs and flows. Therefore, regarding the major economic indicators, we can name the 2010s the lost decade of Iran’s economy,” Sobhanian added.

Official statistics show that the economic growth was averagely near zero in this decade, and society passed high inflation records. In 2019, Iran was among six countries with over-25-percent inflation.

At the time, Iran stood as the sixth state with the highest inflation after Venezuela, Zimbabwe, Argentina, South Sudan, and Sudan. Furthermore, the value of Iran’s national currency rial drastically dropped.

However, this is not the whole story. According to the March 2021 report of the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), the inflation rate has continued while the point-to-point inflation reached 50 percent.

In other words, given the country’s lack of economic growth and an unprecedented increase in the prices of people’s living expenditures, citizens are forced to shrink their product baskets each day.

According to the National Statistic Center, the per capita revenue of households decreased by lower than one-third in the 2010s. Meanwhile, the average consumption of the main foodstuff like rice, chicken, red meat, and fish have declined, and the poverty rate has risen.

Why Has Iran’s Economy Deteriorated?

There are enormous reasons for such circumstances. For instance, several economists believe that liquidity is the main reason for inflation. However, why has liquidity soared? Experts point to the government’s massive budget deficits.

Others reckon the unrestrained printing of banknotes by banks is the main reason. To counter banking disorders and to save their reputation, banks handed printing banknotes uncountably.

And a group of observers pointing to CBI’s wrong decisions as to the central dilemma. They explain that given the shortage in oil income, the government used the CBI’s reserved foreign exchange to compensate for its deficits. In this respect, the government’s debts to the CBI increased.

On the other hand, the majority of people had lost their capability to purchase foreign exchange from the government. Therefore, the government could not offset its costs and benefits. Retail businesses could not import raw materials and equipment. The production cycle did not run. The rial was devaluated more. And the country faced rampant liquidity.

Indeed, unsupported currency led the country’s financial system to the brink of collapse. According to the CBI’s report, the volume of liquidity reached 33.08 quadrillion rial [$1.323 trillion], Eghtesadnews.com reported on March 7.

On the other hand, the government constantly increases the prices of essential goods. No day goes by without major hikes in the prices of sugar, bread, rice, edible oil and other basic items. In a nutshell, officials are adding insult to the injuries of people who have nothing more to lose.

Iran’s State-Run Outlets Warn Regime: ‘Do Not Miss the Opportunity’

Pooya Stone
-
0
Iran’s State-Run Outlets Warn Regime: ‘Do Not Miss the Opportunity’

Iran’s state-run news agency ISNA: “Coronavirus outbreak and deaths overpassing 300, reminds the need to supply and inject the ‘vaccine’.”

Bad situation, warnings, and alarming bells are just some of the expressions seen these days in Iran’s state-run media warning each other about a critical situation that never have been seen in Iran’s government.

Eight of the state-run outlets, Etelaat, Hamshahri, Jomhouri Eslami, Donya-e-Eghtesad, Shargh, Etemad, Sazandegi and Haft-e-Sobh on May 17 in a joint editorial, referring to the most important socio-political debates of the day, ‘warned’ the entire establishment about the consequences of the current situation. The main person who was being warned was the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei.

“Once upon a time, the press avoided using the word crisis in its headlines so as not to add to the anxiety of the people; But now this word is the most commonly and widely used word in publications. These days, the number of crises is uncountable.” (Hamshahri, May 17, 2021)

Now after more than a year after the coronavirus spread in Iran, and the regime’s negligence which lead to the death of more than 293,200 people according to the Iranian resistance, these outlets are warning the regime’s president Hassan Rouhani not to miss the opportunity and start the public’s vaccination as soon as possible.

Without mentioning the main culprit of this situation, which is the regime’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei who banned the government from importing globally reliable vaccines, the state-run media are now implicitly begging the government to act to prevent the people’s fury and protests.

In their joint editorial they wrote:

“It is now clear that rapid vaccination of the masses is the only way to curb the disease and return society to normal life and move the cycles of the economy. We are aware of the impact of oppressive sanctions on the functioning of community health institutions. We are also aware of the importance of trying to obtain a domestically produced vaccine and we appreciate all the efforts made in this field, but we consider it necessary to express our deep concern for the health of the people, considering two issues:

  1. “Contradictory news and information about vaccine imports indicates a fragmentation in the critical decision-making system. While the President calls for the removal of all obstacles to the importation of vaccines, the delay of the executing agencies has raised concerns that there may not be a single will and decision in this regard. The private sector, meanwhile, attributes its failure to import not to external reasons, but to internal barriers.
  2. The political situation in the country and the imminence of the presidential election, based on the experience of all previous periods, has become another reason for our concern. As the first months of the next administration deal with settlement issues, there is a serious concern that the confrontation with the coronavirus will suffer from this political change, and thus there will be irreparable risks to the health of Iranian citizens.

We urge the President, as the country’s chief executive, to hold national committees with the government, the private sector and civil society as soon as possible responsible for investigating the vaccine immediately and planning for its transparent distribution and rapid injection.

It is necessary to review the process of importing foreign vaccines once again and identify and eliminate its natural and abnormal problems and obstacles. Also, ensure that the mass production and production of domestic vaccines are not captured by the destructive competition of the manufacturing institutions.”

They further reflected their fear of the people’s protests, while predicting that after so many deaths they finally are concerned about the people’s health, warning the government:

“We warn that daily delays in this path cause us to increasingly waste time restraining the coronavirus and returning to normal life. End the general worry and anxiety arising from the lack of a clear vision of the situation ahead.” (State-run daily Hamshari, May 17, 2021)

Iran: 50 Percent Increase in the Price of Bread

Hoshang Amiri
-
0
Iran: 50 Percent Increase in the Price of Bread

In Iran, no day goes by without news about an increase in the price of essential goods. In the latest case, the head of the Bakers’ Association in Karaj Hojjatollah Nasiri acknowledged a 50-percent increase in the bread price on May 15. This price increase had gone into effect several days earlier.

“Given the holy month of Ramadan, the official notification of the new bread price was postponed to the next few days,” Nasiri said.

“Amid the chaos of candidates’ registration, [President Hassan] Rouhani increased the bread price,” the semiofficial ISNA news agency reported of the same day.

In recent days, the condition of two mainly edible goods, sugar and bread, has become tense in Iran’s markets. Sugar has become scarce, and the bread price has increased once again.

On May 16, Etemad Online website reported the price of sugar and edible oil has increased by 72 and 35 percent, respectively. “A source familiar with the issue in the Ministry of Industry, Mine, and Trade said, “the retail price of sugar in one-kilo packages was already  87,000 rials [$0.37]… Now, one-kilo package of sugar has become 150,000 rials [$0.46]. The increase of edible oil price has implemented from yesterday,” Etemad Online wrote.

Bread is the most important and commonly used item in Iranian families’ food baskets, regardless of their financial classes. Recently, there were whispers about a rise in the price of essential foodstuffs. Now, people in many provinces witness a silent increase in prices.

In most Tehran’s districts, the bread price has unofficially been raised. Citizens protest the increase in prices and shrinking sizes of bread loaves. Officials initially denied the news. Just like two years ago, they announced that bakeries should obey official directives and sell the bread in accordance with the approved prices.

Officials’ refusal to offer free or cheap flour to bakeries has intensified public anger. Citizens and even state-backed observers believe that the government can easily fix the prices. However, it avoids doing in favor of society due to systematic corruption that has engulfed the entire ruling system.

Notably, on May 3, Shahrvand website had reported that only a very small percent of Iran’s population can afford rice. “As a result of the increase in the price of rice, only 15 million of Iran’s 82-million-strong population can purchase rice without difficulty and consume this nutritious product,” Shahrvand quoted the secretary of the Rice Importers Association Masih Keshavarz as saying.

Furthermore, officials expressed their concerns over the public backlash. “The people can no longer tolerate this amount of high prices. In such circumstances, meat has been removed from people’s food baskets,” said Javad Hosseini-Kia, MP from the western province of Kermanshah.

In reality, he pointed to the removal of essential goods from people’s product baskets. In other words, citizens had to bid farewell to many foodstuffs like meat, fruits, and dairy since a long time ago, and they only struggle to feed their family members with bread.

In this respect, Abufazel Razavi Ardakani, the Friday Imam and the Supreme Leader’s Representative in Shiraz, showed his concerns over the public apathy to the upcoming Presidential election, which authorities fear would lead to a strong rebuke of the entire Islamic Republic system.

“Some say, ‘The people will not participate in the election.’ So, why do they refuse to participate? The pressure of high prices and imprudence have taken many away from the [Islamic] Revolution… A worker whose salary does not cover his expenditures, or someone who does not receive his salary at all… You must be careful about the people’s conditions. Failing to control the prices imposes nervous pressure on people,” Fars news agency quoted Ardakani as saying.

40 Years of Political Disorder in Iran

Sia Rajabi
-
0
40 Years of Political Disorder in Iran

The Iranian government has a lot of interest to show that there is a consensus and alliance in the political body of the government, but the reality is something else. The reality is that the clerical governing system is facing a 40 year long political disorder, because since Ruhollah Khomeini founded the regime after the 1979 revolution, one of his missions was the elimination of all political institutions and parties.

In practice, after 1981 the only one so-called party in Iran has been the Hezbollah with its Hezbollahies who are now famous as the principlists and the reformists, with its many subsets which the regime described as parties.

Principlists

Party Secretary-General
Combatant Clergy Association Mohammad-Ali Movahedi Kermani
Society of Seminary Teachers of Qom Mohammad Yazdi
Islamic Coalition Party Mohammad-Nabi Habibi
Society of Devotees of the Islamic Revolution Mohammad Javad Ameri
Front of Islamic Revolution Stability Morteza Agha-Tehrani
YEKTA Front Hamid-Reza Haji Babaee

 

And here we have the so-called reformists nearly all of which are derived from the Hezbollah party of the first years after the revolution.

Reformists

Party Secretary-General
Association of Combatant Clerics Mohammad Mousavi Khoeiniha
Islamic Labour Party Hossein Kamali
Executives of Construction Party Gholamhossein Karbaschi
National Trust Party Mehdi Karroubi
Union of Islamic Iran People Party Ali Shakouri-Rad
NEDA Party Sadegh Kharazi
Islamic Iran Freedom and Justice Organization Mehdi Moghaddari
Moderation and Development Party Mohammad Bagher Nobakht

 

These two branches have many other subsets, and of course there are many other opposition group and parties which go beyond the scope of this text.

Now near the presidential election we are witnessing how chaff these so-called parties in Iran are. Forty-five well-known figures have been nominated. When listening to their speeches, in most cases there are some very striking features which stand out from the speeches of most of these candidates.

  1. It is possible to identify many candidates, each of whom is the main figure in one of the two main political factions of the country, with, for example, six or seven principlists and six or seven reformists, and all the others are excluded like the past 40 years.
  2. Some have said that I did not want to be a candidate until yesterday or last week, but now I feel that I must be.
  3. Some belonging to the same political faction have drawn their swords from the first days on each other.
  4. Almost everyone agrees that the situation is very bad, and they have come to save Iran.
  5. The vast majority have said that when they saw that there is no capable man who could become president and save the country, they entered the field of the election.
  6. The majority and some of the main figures have said that they have entered independently and do not represent any party or group.

But what do these phrases mean?

  1. All this division and lack of consensus, even that there should be two or three specific candidates from each faction in the field, shows that there is no effective consensus-building political order. Candidates from a faction that has not been able to reach a consensus outside of power are unlikely to be able to build consensus in power, where the interests become more apparent?
  2. The expression, ‘I did not intend to enter until yesterday or last week, now I have decided to enter immediately’ is a sign of the insecurity, unpredictability and instability that prevails in Iran regime’s political body, which is a result of the insecurity and instability that has plagued the economy, culture, and society for decades.
  3. The most complex and empowering human invention which is moving humanity forward is organization. Science with universities organization; industry with factories organization; sports with the organization of the clubs; education with the schools’ organization; and war with the army organization.

But the Iranian people are not benefiting from such an invention in the political field. Therefore no one in Iran can predict the political process.

What we are witnessing today is that politics is unorganized and unpredictable, and the people’s interpretation is right that in Iran mafia gangs are ruling the country under the control of the supreme leader as the ultimate decisionmaker.

  1. Oddly enough, everyone who enters this election show claims to be the savior of the nation. But the truth is that after 40 years of destruction in which all of them are involved, there is nothing left for them to save.
  2. And finally, all the members and officials of this regime know very well that the people do not trust any of them as well as the factions, so they are forced to say that ‘I came independently and do not belong to any faction or party.’

Why the West Should Not Capitulate to Iran’s Nuclear Threats

Mehdi Hosseini
-
0
Why the West Should Not Capitulate to Iran’s Nuclear Threats

Just months after the United States withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal, formally known as the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), Iranian officials bragged that they could resume (and exceed) the prior nuclear advancements and then proceeded to do just that throughout 2019, with uranium enrichment now up to 63% which has the sole purpose of being used in nuclear weapons.

This is a blatant attempt to blackmail Western signatories into providing sanctions relief, even resorting to threatening that if sanctions aren’t lifted they will continue their nuclear advancements, with Intelligence Minister Mahmoud Alavi shrugging off any responsibility by Iran in February.

For those who were not paying attention to various Tehran’s critics who have warned of the mullahs’ nuclear ambitions for over 20 years, this should be the blaring siren that Iran will always pursue nukes if given the opportunity. The JCPOA gave Iran money to secretly continue their program with the International Atomic Energy Agency not given appropriate access to inspect sites, which allowed Tehran to violate the deal, as the head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran admitted to last year and European intelligence agencies have confirmed. Yet still, European policymakers defend the deal and try to convince the US to re-join it.

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “What those policymakers must understand is that that status quo includes all of the threats and accounts of deception. By simply returning to the JCPOA as written, its signatories would be signalling to the Iranian regime that it will face no consequences for its prior non-compliance. This, in turn, will give the regime tacit permission to resume the same malign behaviour that seems to be aimed at setting the stage for a nuclear breakout once the agreement expires.”

These policymakers may be sure that they can intervene to stop Tehran’s malign behaviour, but once Iran has access to their frozen assets and foreign markets, they will no doubt be able to slip through the cracks with enrichment, procurement, and development of nuclear weapons.

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “The 2015 agreement was not sufficient to stop Iran from trying to shorten its nuclear breakout period. Today, those same policymakers should be all the more convinced that unless their approach to this issue changes, Iran’s malign efforts will only continue to accelerate.”

The Iranian Resistance, which first revealed the mullahs’ nuclear program in 2002, would seek to ban nuclear weapons in the country.

Iran Hits Inflation Record of More Than 50%

Pooya Stone
-
0
Iran Hits Inflation Record of More Than 50%

The inflation rate in Iran today has been unprecedented for over the past 75 years. The record of inflation has exceeded 50 percent.

Ehsan Khandouzi, an MP, on his Twitter account said: “Recently, the 75-year-old record of inflation was broken in Iran; If this is not happening then, the Central Bank should publish the February report.”

He added: “Iran only has seen inflation over 50 percent in the years of occupation (World War I).”

Earlier, the Statistics Center of Iran, referring to inflation of about 39 percent in April 2021, had announced point inflation for the poorest decile of the country at 50.3 percent.

The Statistics Center of Iran, stating that the inflation of non-food items for the poor in April 2021 was 37.2 percent, spoke of the extraordinary increase in inflation of food items for the most vulnerable sections of society and announced:

“Food point inflation was 63.4 percent for the lowest decile and 61.3 percent for the highest income decile.”

These statistics show that inflationary pressures, especially on foodstuffs, which are the most essential commodities, are applied to the poorest and most deprived sections of society.

The statistics and figures in Iran presented by the government should be always handled with sceptic. Because the ‘engineering’ of the figures has become an industry, and for the government there is no more shame to spread lies in favor of the government. An industry, which includes all dimensions of the country’s affairs, including political, economic, social, and cultural elements, to blind the public mind and prevent the people to get the truth.

But sometimes because of the officials’ disputes on special occasions, news is revealed that represents the depth of the catastrophe.

Such facts in the regime are uncountable. On May 17, Mohammad Javad Zarif, the foreign minister, in his trip to Italy claimed that the Italians have a $30 billion investment in Iran. According to the state-run media, this is just an exaggeration.

The state-run website Tahririeh Studies Institute on May 18 on this subject wrote: “Defending the economic effects of the JCPOA agreement, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif made a bizarre claim that is not in line with normal economic logic.

“Zarif said: ‘Italy has a large presence in Iran, and Italian companies were very interested in cooperating with Iran, so that in this field they had set a contract of about $30 billion and $5 billion in credit.’

“Why Mohammad Javad Zarif mentions these numbers with detail and mentioning the headline is an expert error and contrary to the principle of transparency, but to reject this claim, it is enough to say that Italy owes $2,939 billion, which is equivalent to 134% of the country’s GDP.

“Such an indebted country does not have the capacity to invest $1,000 in Iran, and figures such as $30 billion in contracts and $5 billion in credit are wrong and indicative that Zarif is also unaware of the axioms of the international economy. Perhaps therefore Iranian embassies have no economic function and cost hundreds of millions of dollars a year, they only do simple consular office work.

“Iran has dozens of embassies in Europe, which does not have even $1 billion in economic ties with Iran, at staggering foreign exchange costs, but no active embassies in neighboring countries that import tens of billions of dollars from Iran.”

Finally mocking this claim, this website added: “The bottom line is that after the JCPOA was signed, there was ample opportunity for the Italians to invest $1 million from this $30 billion in investment and $5 billion in credit to make it possible for experts to believe the rest of the promises.” (State-run website Tahririeh Studies Institute, May 18, 2021)

What Is the Message of Ongoing Protests in Iran

Jubin Katiraie
-
0
What Is the Message of Ongoing Protests in Iran

On Sunday, dozens of Iranian cities saw mass protests by retirees, who are demanding that their pensions be increased in line with inflation, and literacy movement teachers, who are angry about their terrible living conditions; all of which is all down to the corruption of the mullahs.

During the demonstrations, held in Arak, Ahvaz, Ardebil, Borujerd, Isfahan, Ilam, Kermanshah, Karaj, Kerman, Khorramabad, Lahijan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Tehran, and Tabriz, protesters called on the public to boycott the presidential elections.

Despite the presence of the State Security Force (SSF) and Plainclothes agents, who tried desperately to break up the gatherings, the protesters gathered and chanted:

  • “We will not vote anymore; we have heard too many lies”
  • “We will not rest until we get our rights”
  • “We will not leave until we reach our demands”

As the regime becomes more engulfed with crises, both at home and abroad, protests in Iran are growing in size and scale. At the same time, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei says that Iran will soon hold its “most sensitive elections”, which is why he called for unity amongst the mullahs, but in spite of this, factional infighting has increased.

This has led to a critical state where officials and the state-run media warn constantly that another major protest is imminent because of all the issues that the people are facing, but still, the mullahs do nothing to fix the problem, so people might explode at any minute.

What are some of these issues? Well the Ebtekar daily laid it out on Sunday as:

  • lack of transparency
  • belligerence
  • weak foreign policy
  • inflation
  • negative economic outlook
  • currency repression
  • mistrust by the people
  • regional adventurism
  • no central bank independence

The Mardom Salarie daily wrote that “people’s livelihood is turning to a major economic and social catastrophe”, while the Jahan-e Sanat said that the “Iranian people’s economic misery is a very deep well, and [the presidential] candidates are only digging it deeper”.

One of Iran’s apologists Sadegh Ziba Kalam said: “Why are people disappointed? Why are the youth frustrated? Why is there unemployment? Why is there economic insecurity? Candidates act as they were not chief executives, mayors, governors, judiciary chief or not the parliament’s speaker.”

As the rulling theocracy faces more protest from all around, even from communities that traditionally supported them, they will continue to use violence to stop these protests and maintain a semblance of control because if they practised caution, it would still lead to more protests. Simply, protests will continue and an major protests will come, no matter what the government does.

Raisi’s Presenditial Run: An Explainer

Hoshang Amiri
-
0
Raisi’s Presenditial Run: An Explainer

Iranian Judiciary Chief Ebrahim Raisi has announced his candidacy for the presidential election in June to much controversy.

In a statement carried by local media, he said: “I have come as an independent to the stage to make changes in the executive management of the country and to fight poverty, corruption, humiliation and discrimination.”

So, who is Raisi and why is him running for President so controversial?

Raisi was appointed to his post in 2019 by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, quickly becoming one of the most powerful people in the country and a leading succeeder for Khamenei. Raisi already ran for president in 2017, after Khamenei threw his weight behind him, but ultimately incumbent Hassan Rouhani stayed in power.

But Raisi is best-known for his role in the 1988 massacre of 30,000 political prisoners when he served on the Death Commission and sentenced hundreds to their deaths. His record has not improved since.

Judiciary record

Some 620 people have been executed in Iran since Raisi became Judiciary Chief, many of those from ethnic minority groups or penalised for non-violent crimes, because how else would Iran have the greatest number of executions per capita?

Of those executed during Raisi’s tenure, at least 22 were political prisoners, including Abdol-Basset Dahani, Naser Khafajian, Ghassem Abdullah, Ali Khasraji, Hassan Dehvari, Hossein Silawi, Elias Qalandarzehi, Abdolhamid Mir-Baluchzehi, Hedayat Abdollahpour, Hamid Rastbala, Abdullah Karmollah Chab, Navid Afkari, Mostafa Salimi, Javid Dehghan, Mostafa Salehi, Ruhollah Zam, Omid Mahmoudzehi, Kabir Sa’adat Jahani, Diako Rasoulzadeh, Mohammad Ali Arayesh, and Saber Sheikh Abdollah.

Many of those executed, as well as those that continue to be held in prison, have been subjected to torture, including physical assaults, food and water deprivation, sexual humiliation, denial of medical care, prolonged interrogation, solitary confinement, painful stress positions, and verbal abuse, to obtain false confessions.

Even those who escape execution can experience degrading punishments banned by international law, like flogging and amputation, including several protesters. They are also suffering from horrific prison conditions that violate their human rights because of not just the tortures listed above, but also because of a lack of sanitary conditions during a pandemic and the refusal to separate political prisoners from violent ones.

Iran Human Rights Monitor in this regard wrote: “After the appointment of the murderer Judge Ebrahim Raisi as the head of the Judiciary, dozens of peaceful rights activists and dissidents were sentenced to harsh prison sentences and even execution for peacefully using their right to freedom of expression.”

How Iran’s Economy Was Destroyed by the Mullahs

Pooya Stone
-
0
How Iran’s Economy Was Destroyed by the Mullahs

The Iranian government has, through warmongering, terrorism, and institutionalized corruption, destroyed the country’s economy, leaving 80% of Iranians in poverty.

The mullahs falsely claim that sanctions are the issue, but recently economists linked to the officials and the state-run media have publically rejected this.

An Iranian economist Farshad Momeni said Friday: “Improper and ill-considered decision-making methods have faced the country with a lot of corruption and inefficiencies. It is safe to say those wrong policies that create inflation since they are anti-production and based on injustice are roots of all small and big problems of Iran’s economy.”

These policies, including the “exchange rate control plan” and “housing constructions”, have lost hundreds of billions of dollars since 1990. Momeni estimates a total of $730 billion have been lost from these two policies alone.

Meanwhile, the state-run media has been focusing on the problems that the economic collapse have caused to the working class, which is much worse than the general population.

Alireza Heidari, Vice President of the Union of Veterans of the Working Society, said Saturday: “Security has been taken away from the working class in various areas. Workers are now concerned about how they can live and earn a living under the current conditions, given the rampant inflation and declining purchasing power. Livelihoods are a major concern that has plagued the working-class community over the past few years, both those employed and retired. They have a pessimistic view of their future living conditions.”

He was talking to the ILNA news agency, which further reported that the government’s “parametric reform” plan for calculating pensions is just a way to reduce the pensions and benefits. Indeed, this is what retirees from all over the country have been protesting every week since January, calling for their pension to rise with inflation so that they can actually afford to live.

The state-run Eghtesad-e Pouya explained at the beginning of the month that the increase in the cost of housing, meat, and oil promises that the workers will have an emptier table in the coming year than ever before, especially because of those who have lost their job amid the Covid-19 outbreak that disproportionately affects low-income people.

One of the MP’s Malek Shariati attacking Rouhani’s government on May 18 said: “The creators of the current situation, especially in the country’s economy, can in no way claim to reform and solve the country’s problems.”

Referring to the registration of members of the Rouhani government for the presidential election, he added: “Most of these people do not have an acceptable record and it is strange that in their speeches they say ‘they are looking to improve the current situation and solve the problems of the country.’”

Finally he added: “Inflation crossed the 50 percent mark and broke the country’s 75-year record, indicating the weakness of the government’s economic team.” (State-run news agency Mehr, May 18, 2021)

Another MP, Behzad Rahimi attacked Rouhani because of the dire economic situation and said: “Mr. President, the people have been crushed under the wheel of your recklessness in the political, social and especially economic spheres, but you are thinking about the color of your beard. Mr. Rouhani, you did not have mercy on the unemployed and frustrated youth who came and joined to your stock market with thousands of hopes and aspirations and with your Excellency’s propaganda, and you are mocking these young people by robbing them of thousands of billions of Tomans of capital.” (ICANA, May 16, 2021)

The Iranian Resistance wrote: “The aforementioned facts show why Iranians from all walks of life chant in their protests, ‘our enemy is right here; they lie it is the US’. The regime’s destructive actions have turned the society into a powder keg, prompting state-run media to warn officials of an uprising.”

Unemployment in Iran a Problem With Political and Social Dimensions

Sia Rajabi
-
0
Unemployment in Iran a Problem With Political and Social Dimensions

The most important problem of the next decade in Iran is the problem of unemployment, a problem that can even have political and social dimensions, according to Iran experts.

In the summer of 2017, when the twelfth government took office, President Hassan Rouhani announced that his government’s top priority would be to solve the unemployment problem in the country and promised to create 900,000 jobs annually.

The major anti-government protests of January 2018 and November 2019 and the incident of the coronavirus pandemic changed the priorities of Iran’s government in preventing any protests and the rise of the people.

For nearly a decade, Iran’s economic growth has been close to zero, which means that according to the logic of economics, the creating of new job opportunities and eliminating previous job opportunities should be close to zero. However, the problems seem to be so great in Iran, that no one can address the unemployment crisis.

The population of Iran in 2011 was reported to be about 75 million and now, in 2021, it is estimated at about 84 million. About nine million people have been added to the population of Iran during this decade, but apparently there is no prosperity in the Iranian labor market, and this means that if four years ago the employment crisis was just a light wind and its alarm siren a little whistle, now this light wind has become a storm and its alarming siren has becoming a deafening sound.

The official unemployment rate in Iran is not accurate. The latest data of the ‘Labor Force Survey Plan’ in 2018, provides a more accurate picture of this issue. According to the Statistics Center of Iran, that year about 23.8 million people were employed throughout Iran, of which about 13 million (equivalent to 5%) were employed at least 44 hours a week.

On the other hand, of the total population of employees in 2018, about 9.7 million people (equivalent to about 40.8%) worked less than 44 hours per week, which in fact, in general, indicates ‘underemployment’. Simply put, nearly 41% of all Iranians who were employed in 2018 did not have a full-time job (in the sense of a full-time job).

However, data from the Statistics Center of Iran, last updated in April 2021, show that the unemployment rate in Iran has declined in recent years. This may seem strange at first glance, because we all know that the general state of Iran’s economy has steadily deteriorated in recent years.

However, economic logic supports this data, because by reducing the actual (or nominal) wages of workers, it becomes easier and cheaper for the employer to employ labor. Accordingly, the unemployment rate (according to the definition of the Statistics Center, the ratio of unemployed population to active population (employed and unemployed), multiplied by 100) in the winter of 2020 across the country, was equal to 9.7 percent.

Unemployment rates in Iran have been declining in recent years, but these statistics are naturally based on self-reported individuals.

This rate was equal to 10.6 percent in the winter of 2019 and 12.5 percent in the winter of 2016. Thus, in the last five years, the unemployment rate has decreased, because the wages of the employees in practice (for example, in terms of their dollar wages) have been lower than before and it has become easier for the employer to pay. For this reason, the employer prefers to hire a larger labor force.

1...277278279...3,781Page 278 of 3,781