Iran’s Government Creates a Smokescreen To Hide Its Retreat

On November 5, the Iranian Friday Prayer leaders tried to introduce the story of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC)’s oil tanker retake as a victory for the regime. One of them, cleric Mohammad Ali Al-Hashem, called this incident a victory by ‘hitting seven targets with one bullet.’

Meanwhile, cleric Hassan Ameli called it an ‘exceptional humiliation of the US military and defeat of the American awe.’

These dictated speeches by the regime’s Friday Prayer Leaders were with the goal of a ‘smoke screen’ to protect the regime and distract the public opinion from the regime’s main problem, analysts say. The question is what is the regime’s main problem? It does not take much research to understand the regime’s motivation to trumpet the news about an oil tanker capture in the Gulf of Oman.

The state-run news agency Fars the next day after this event in a note entitled, ‘Crossing the twofold subject of the field and diplomacy/ Why was Raisi’s praise about the IRGC’s power important?’ revealed the reality about the regime’s goal in this event.

“In the new administration, the first military incident was the collision of IRGC speedboats with American piracy. This is significant because on Wednesday (November 3), Ali Bagheri, the Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs, announced that the Vienna talks would resume on November 29 this year.”

Easily translated, this smokescreen (confronting the US Army) was to hide the regime’s retreat, better said the retreat of the new Hezbollahi government who all are the regime supreme leader’s beloved people, accepting to negotiate with the US government about its nuclear case.

Previously, before every strategic decision whose outcome would be against the regime, Tehran attacked its opposition, the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK), whose members were stationed in Iraq and who are now in Albania, to compensate for its weakness.

Now, losing this opportunity, they are forced to show their fake power in such James Bond-style theatrics- But who are they trying to scare?

This answer is given by the Fars: “Negotiations may have a tortuous path, but as long as the negotiators have the thought that the negotiations are not about life-and-death, there is a possibility of a diplomatic victory. In war, that one who fears more will lose sooner.”

So, the purpose of this drumming is not to intimidate the other side. It is to encourage its hopeless forces. In addition, to create this image that its new Hezollahi government is going to the negotiation desk with courage and power.

Amazingly, before this event and the regime’s acceptance to sit behind the negotiation desk, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei defined negotiations with the United States as concessions and said that they would not negotiate with the United States.

“I have been repeating for years that we do not negotiate with the United States. [If] you take a step back, they will take a step forward. That we keep saying we do not negotiate, [but] some say, sir, there is nothing wrong with negotiation, the wrong thing about negotiation is this:

“It diverts you from the right path, it takes one concession from you. When you negotiate, it means giving a concession and taking another. This is the meaning of negotiation; Negotiation is not sitting and chatting and talking and laughing and joking, negotiation means giving something, taking something. Then it takes what he owes you, he does not give you what he owes. This is bullying.” (Khamenei.ir, August 1, 2016)

Now according to the speeches of the regime’s supreme leader, accepting the negotiations is due to the regime’s weakness, giving concession and accepting to be bullied.

Before Ebrahim Raisi’s government, he said that the JCPOA was not his real choice, and his inner circle said that accepting the ‘Heroic flexibility’ was because of the insist of the then officials and he would new retread in front of the USA. But what about now? Now Khamenei’s desired government has the power.

The truth is that the regime has no cards to play with, Iran watchers say. And on every occasion, it is calling for negotiations but with a ‘humiliating flexibility.’ But in an invert way.

“The Americans are constantly impatient to negotiate with Iran, we have made our decision, you are still hesitant. We did not leave the JPCOA at all, you have disturbed the JCPOA, now if you won’t come back and negotiate, Islamic Iran will not accept erosive negotiations.”