During the first seven months of the current Persian calendar year (March 21-October 23), only “approximately 70 percent” of the government’s projected revenues had been realized, according to Davoud Manzour, the head of the Iranian Planning and Budget Organization, who spoke at a press conference on October 23. This indicates a significant budget deficit.
This government official also stated that the government has failed to achieve the goal of “daily oil exports of 1.5 million barrels.”
The head of the Planning and Budget Organization, in an explanation of the reasons for the “non-realization” of the projected budget for the current year, rejected the statements of senior government officials regarding Iran’s oil exports surpassing 1.8 million barrels per day and stated that the volume of oil exports “falls short of what was predicted in the budget law.”
According to Davoud Manzour, the reason for the non-realization of 30 percent of the projected resources and revenues for the current year is that the oil revenues in the budget law were overestimated.
He mentioned that the budget law had predicted oil revenues of 6,200 trillion rials (approximately $12.156 billion) and added, “It was assumed that we could sell oil at $80 per barrel and export 1.5 million barrels per day,” but these figures were determined with an “overestimation.”
The head of the Planning and Budget Organization stated that practically, “for most months of the current year, the selling price of oil has been less than $80” and that the “daily oil exports” have been less than 1.5 million barrels, especially considering the domestic market’s demand, particularly during the summer when there was an increase in the consumption of oil products. As a result, the projected oil revenues specified in the budget law were not realized.
Davoud Manzour also highlighted another item determined in the budget law that has not been realized after seven months of the year, which is the “revenue from asset divestitures and asset generation” that was set at 1,040 trillion rials (approximately $2.309 billion). He stated that the revenue achieved from divestitures and asset generation in the first seven months of the current year is “less than 100 trillion rials” out of the projected 1,040 trillion rials.
According to the head of the Iranian Planning and Budget Organization, the failure to achieve the projected oil exports and the non-realization of revenues from “asset divestitures and asset generation” have resulted in only 70 percent of the planned revenues being realized.
His statement indicates that 30 percent of the projected revenues for the first seven months of the current year have not been achieved, leading to a significant budget deficit for the government.
The government had set the general budget at 20,820 trillion rials (approximately $40.823 billion) for the current year and expected to generate 12,140 trillion rials (approximately $23.803 billion) of revenue in the first seven months. However, according to the head of the Planning and Budget Organization, 30 percent of this amount has not been realized, resulting in a budget deficit of 3,640 trillion rials (approximately $7.137 billion).
On the other hand, the regime’s officials and the Ministry of Oil have not provided precise figures on Iran’s oil exports. However, Javad Oji, the Minister of Oil in the Ebrahim Raisi’s administration, had previously stated that Iran had exported “at least 190 million barrels more oil than in 2020 and 83 million barrels more than in 2021” in the year 2022. He also mentioned that a new record would be set in Iran’s oil exports this year.
Furthermore, on October 8, Javad Oji announced “increased oil exports” from Iran and stated, “With the efforts of my colleagues in the Ministry of Oil, the statistics of crude oil, condensates, and petroleum product production and exports are increasing every day.”
Mousa Mousavi, a member of the regime’s Majlis (parliament), stated on October 13, “The increase in oil exports and the return of its revenue to the country amidst the peak of sanctions is a miracle, and in the past two years, oil production has increased from over 2 million barrels to over 3 million barrels per day.”
On September 4, the official Iranian news agency, IRNA, reported that “Iran exported 1.7 million barrels of crude oil and 152,000 barrels of condensates daily in the month of August” and that “the total exports of oil and gas condensates from Iran in that month were 1.85 million barrels per day.” It was stated that this figure represents the highest level of Iran’s oil exports in the past five years since the United States’ withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal.
It’s worth noting that different sources and officials may provide varying information or interpretations regarding Iran’s oil exports and revenues.
However, Davoud Manzour, the head of the Planning and Budget Organization, announced that the volume of Iran’s oil exports over the past seven months was “less than 1.5 million barrels per day.”
