According to the data published by the Iranian regime’s customs, non-oil exports to Japan, which had reached around $1 billion in the mid-2000s and 2010s, have plummeted to about $5 million in the first six months of this year.
The state-run “90eghtesadi” website reported that considering Iran’s non-oil exports to Japan in the previous year amounted to only $12.6 million in total, this figure is “approaching zero.”
The website reported that after the signing of the nuclear agreement (JCPOA) between Iran and the West, Iran’s exports to Japan reached $1.1 billion in 2016, and in 2017 and 2018, they amounted to $422 million and $241 million, respectively.
90eghtesadi stated that this decline indicates that Japan is “adhering most” to the U.S. sanctions against Iran. However, Iran’s inclusion in the FATF blacklist also has an impact in this regard.
According to multiple published reports, Iran’s trade balance has become negative in recent years, with the value of imports surpassing non-oil exports. Customs statistics for the first five months of this year showed that the country’s non-oil exports were nearly $5 billion less than its imports.
Furthermore, from March to July 2023, Iran’s non-oil commodity exports, excluding crude oil, furnace oil, and white oil, as well as luggage trade, decreased by 7.97% and reached $15.906 billion.
Meanwhile, customs statistics from China, Iran’s largest trading partner, indicated that China’s non-oil imports from Iran fell by 43% in the first seven months of this year compared to the same period last year, reaching $2.5 billion. In contrast, China’s exports to Iran have reached a peak of $6 billion, with a growth rate of 17%.
The Iranian regime’s customs has ceased publishing official statistics on its website for the past three years and only provides a general report on non-oil trade for distribution to government media. In this way, the Iranian regime intends to present an inaccurate picture of the economy.
In the same context, the Financial Times reported on September 10 that following the easing of restrictions on the registration of Iranian companies in the United Arab Emirates and the facilitation of visa issuance, bilateral trade between the two countries has experienced significant growth, increasing from $11 billion in 2021 to $24 billion in 2022.
The point here is that according to the statistics from the Chamber of Commerce, this growth is solely due to Iran’s increased imports from the UAE. In the past year, the UAE’s exports to Iran were $18.4 billion, while UAE’s imports from Iran were only $5.7 billion.
Iranian customs statistics also show that in the first five months of this year, Iran had $2.3 billion in exports to the UAE and $7.3 billion in imports from the country.
Consequently, the trade balance heavily favors the UAE, whereas before the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and the imposition of sanctions against the regime, there was a trade balance between the two countries.
Iran’s inability to revive its export volume to the UAE, despite the improved political climate in 2020 and the Biden administration’s willingness to overlook the regime’s bypassing of sanctions, indicates that Iranian traders still face significant obstacles to export growth to the UAE.
A similar situation exists with India, which was once Iran’s third-largest oil importer and a major exporter of goods to Iran. Indian Ministry of Commerce statistics show that in the first half of this year, India’s exports to Iran were around $420 million, while its imports from Iran were $276 million.
Regarding Turkey, the latest report from the Statistical Center of this country shows that in the first seven months of this year, Turkey had $1.36 billion in imports and $1.66 billion in exports to Iran.
It is not only the imbalance in foreign trade that threatens Iran’s foreign commerce but also the dependence on a few countries for a significant portion of imports and exports, which puts the security of Iran’s foreign trade at risk.
For example, customs statistics from March 21 to July 23 show that during this period, Iran’s non-oil exports were $19.3 billion, of which $14.5 billion, equivalent to 75%, went to just five countries: China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey, and India. Iran’s imports during the same period were $24.2 billion, of which $18.6 billion, equivalent to 77%, came from only five countries: the UAE, China, Turkey, Germany, and India.
