In its latest report on the global economic situation, the World Bank states that Iran’s GDP has been higher in recent years due to increased oil exports. However, this year and in the coming years, it will follow a downward trend.
According to this report, published on Wednesday, June 12, Iran’s GDP grew by 5% last year, but it is expected to decrease to 3.2% this year, 2.7% next year, and 2.4% in 2026.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) had previously published a similar assessment of the deceleration in Iran’s GDP growth.
The World Bank attributes Iran’s 5% economic growth in 2023 to the country’s exemption from the OPEC oil production cut agreement, which led to increased oil exports and production, along with a relative improvement in the service sector.
Reports from Iran’s Central Bank and the Statistical Center of Iran also indicate that the relatively high economic growth last year was due to a 21% increase in the oil sector and a 17% increase in government spending (at constant 2011 prices).
Data from the commodity information company Kpler shows that Iran’s oil exports reached 1.5 million barrels in mid-winter last year, which is 50% more than the same period in 2022. However, there has been no growth since then.
OPEC statistics indicate that from the beginning of the current Iranian year (March 21), Iran’s daily oil production reached 3.207 million barrels, which is 23% more than last March. However, it has only grown by 20,000 barrels since then.
According to the World Bank, Iran’s economic growth is expected to be only 3.2% in 2024, but this growth is also facing challenges such as sanctions, global oil demand, and domestic energy shortages.
Iran faces severe power shortages in the summer, forcing power cuts in the industrial sector, which affects the country’s industrial production.
In winter, the country also faces a severe gas deficit, and the government restricts gas supply to the cement, steel, and petrochemical sectors.
The annual loss due to electricity and gas outages in Iran’s industrial sector is estimated to be around $5-$8 billion.
The World Bank also predicts that global economic growth this year will be around 2.6%, which is unchanged from last year, and will be around 2.7% for the next two years.
