Citing Western officials, security sources, and informed Iranian insiders, Reuters reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has tightened its grip on Iran’s oil industry, now controlling half of the country’s oil exports.
Western and internal sources reveal that the IRGC’s control over Iranian oil encompasses managing a covert fleet of tankers, logistics, and front companies used to sell oil primarily to customers in China.
According to the report, the IRGC’s share of Iran’s oil exports has grown from about 20% three years ago to 50% today. Simultaneously, under Iran’s 2024 budget law and the proposed 2025 budget bill, nearly the entire budget for Iran’s armed forces is allocated in crude oil and condensates.
The Iranian regime is determined to secure buyers for oil shipped to Dalian, China, before Donald Trump potentially returns to the White House. Tehran officials fear that Trump’s return could jeopardize access to oil shipments in Dalian, valued at approximately $1 billion.
The IRGC has expanded its activities into domains traditionally held by state institutions, such as the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and its subsidiaries in oil trade.
Richard Nephew, a former deputy special envoy for Iran at the U.S. State Department, noted that when sanctions began impacting Iran’s oil exports years ago, those managing the NIOC and broader industries sought ways to circumvent rather than avoid sanctions. Nephew, now a researcher at Columbia University, said, “The IRGC guys were much, much better at smuggling, just terrible at oil field management, so they began to get larger control of oil exports.”
China’s Role and IRGC Discounts
China, as Iran’s largest oil buyer, receives Iranian oil offered by the IRGC at significant discounts to attract customers. An insider involved in Iran’s oil sales to China told Reuters that oil export revenues are roughly equally split between the IRGC and NIOC.
The source noted that the IRGC sells oil at a $1–$2 discount compared to NIOC’s rates. Reuters also cited two Western sources estimating that the IRGC’s discounts average $5 per barrel but can reach as high as $8.
According to U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates, Iran’s oil revenues reached $53 billion in 2023, up from $16 billion in 2020. These revenues stood at $37 billion in 2021 and $54 billion in 2022.
Washington Free Beacon reported on December 13 that Iran’s oil sales significantly increased under the Biden administration. According to the latest government figures and expert estimates, Iran’s illicit oil revenues during Biden’s presidency reached approximately $200 billion.
The Quds Force and Iran’s Covert Oil Fleet
Intelligence documents indicate that Qasem Soleimani, the former commander of the IRGC Quds Force, who was killed in a 2020 U.S. airstrike in Baghdad, established a secret base to oversee this unit’s oil smuggling operations.
Reports estimate the IRGC’s annual budget for routine operations and headquarters at around $1 billion. Additionally, Hezbollah’s budget is estimated at approximately $700 million, with 70%–80% of its funding directly provided by Iran.
Hassan Nasrallah, the former Secretary-General of Hezbollah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut, stated that the Iranian regime provides funding for the group, including salaries for its members and weapons.
The National Iranian Tanker Company, previously central to oil exports, now serves the IRGC. Ship-to-ship transfers are among the methods used to conceal the oil’s origin, with much of it shipped to China.
This year, the U.S. Treasury and Israel’s National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing imposed sanctions on ships linked to the Quds Force. This “ghost fleet” uses sophisticated methods to evade sanctions and sell embargoed oil. In recent months, the U.S. sanctioned 35 tankers tied to the Quds Force.
