Abram Paley, the Deputy Special Representative for Iran at the U.S. State Department, referring to Washington’s latest sanctions on Iranian oil sales, stated to have received unverified reports about the transfer and sale of Iran’s oil reserves and the oil sanctions on Iran remain in place and will be fully enforced.
The Iranian regime is attempting to sell its stored oil in China, which was previously transferred there via the “dark fleet,” before the start of Donald Trump’s presidential term.
The Iranian regime fears that Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, will impose stricter sanctions after taking office, preventing the sale of this oil.
According to data from the oil tanker tracking company Vortexa, after a decline in Iran’s oil sales over the past month, the volume of Iran’s floating oil reserves has increased from approximately 36 million barrels in mid-September to 48 million barrels this month, with the value of this increase estimated at around $1 billion.
According to Iran’s 2024 budget law, the General Staff of the Armed Forces has been authorized to sell crude oil and gas condensates up to a monthly limit of 134 trillion tomans (approximately $1.763 billion) to strengthen the country’s defense capabilities.
This amount equals the sale of 104 million barrels of oil, or 21% of Iran’s total oil exports planned for 2024.
According to the budget bill, if the government fails to allocate the required budget to military institutions, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) must compensate for the shortfall by delivering crude oil or gas condensates to representatives of the military institutions.
Iranian oil, which is under U.S. and allied sanctions, is often exported via tankers known as the “dark fleet” and is usually transferred to other tankers in Malaysian and Singaporean waters.
At this stage, Iranian oil is rebranded as Iraqi, Emirati, Omani, or Malaysian oil before being transferred to small, independent Chinese refineries known as “teapots.”
Shandong port in China is the main hub for receiving this rebranded oil. However, tanker tracking companies have reported a significant increase in shipments to China’s Dalian port this year.
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned 45 tankers this month that were used to circumvent sanctions and transport Iranian oil to Shandong port.
Despite these sanctions, Vortexa data indicates that over 100 large tankers in the dark fleet remain unaffected by sanctions and continue to transport Iranian oil to China, albeit in smaller volumes than before.
Decline in Crude Oil Exports
Iran’s daily oil exports have declined by more than half a million barrels per day compared to September, reaching approximately 1.3 million barrels per day in November.
According to data from the analytics firm Kpler, Iran’s average daily oil exports this year have been around 1.6 million barrels, with nearly all of it going to China.
This figure is 300,000 barrels per day higher than last year. However, oil deliveries to China have sharply declined in recent weeks. Additionally, Iran has stopped oil exports to Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Under these conditions, the future of Iran’s oil exports to China remains uncertain, and Vortexa statistics show that the volume of Iran’s unsold floating oil continues to rise.
The majority of Iran’s floating oil reserves are stored in Singaporean waters, awaiting intermediaries and buyers to transfer it to China.
The drop in Iran’s oil exports to 1.3 million barrels per day comes as Masoud Pezeshkian’s government plans to export 1.85 million barrels per day next year.
