Iranian media have reported extensively on the severe recession and rising prices overshadowing the Nowruz market (the Persian New Year which starts on March 21), noting that demand has dropped to a minimum in the final days of the year. The state-run website Etemad Online, in a report titled “Nowruz Nuts More Expensive Than Gold,” wrote that weak government oversight and insufficient support for domestic producers, along with excessive exports of certain nuts such as pistachios, have exacerbated price hikes ahead of Nowruz.
53% Inflation in Imported Goods: Economic Crisis and Governance Failure in Iran
Etemad Online reported that the price of nuts has reached 16.5 million rials per kilogram (approximately $17). Meanwhile, the minimum wage for a worker supporting two children is around $116.
The state-run website Tabnak also highlighted the turmoil in the holiday market, stating that the deep recession in the nuts and dried fruit sector has not prevented price increases. According to the latest inflation data for February, the dried fruit category saw a 7.8% monthly price increase, making it one of the highest inflation rates among food items.
Meanwhile, Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh, the Iranian regime’s Minister of Agriculture has acknowledged the rising prices, stating that “price increases are natural.”
On March 1, Nouri Ghezeljeh, said in a meeting with provincial governors: “Right now, people are talking about the high prices of legumes and tea. At the beginning of the year, these items were imported at an exchange rate of 285,000 rials per USD, but now it’s about 680,000 rials. Naturally, this 2.5-fold increase affects prices.”
Currently, the U.S. dollar is trading at approximately 950,000 rials in the market.
“These are decisions that have been made, and we must defend them. We need to understand the issue and not blame everything on why prices rise ahead of Nowruz,” Nouri Ghezeljeh added.
Market players and experts attribute part of the ongoing price hikes to the exchange rate and express concerns about future prices. In this regard, Mohammad Hashemi, a regime insider, stated that the exchange rate could reach 1.1 million rials per USD by Nowruz and may continue rising afterward.
Based on this, experts and economic analysts foresee difficult days ahead for Iran’s economy. In this regard, Hossein Selahvarzi, an economic expert, told the state-runwebsite Donya-e-Eqtesad that Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy will put additional strain on China, Iran’s sole oil buyer.
According to this economic expert, Iran’s oil exports could drop significantly to below 500,000 barrels per day, leading to a severe decline in government revenues. As a result, the government will face serious difficulties in meeting the country’s essential needs.
